Thanksgiving is a time to reflect on what to be thankful for. And while politics is often not a very reflective industry, the men and women vying for the presidency in 2024 do have countless unique things they should be grateful for this year.
In the case of the two likely nominees they ought to be thankful for each other - Joe Biden needs Donald Trumps unique ability to motivate Democrats, while Trump needs Bidens slumping approval ratings.
For the other candidates, what they should be thankful for reflects the unique dynamics of each campaign and the party they are seeking to lead.
Here is The Messenger politics team analysis of what the candidates for president in 2024 should be thankful for roughly a year out from the general election:
Joe Biden: Donald Trump
It may seem counterintuitive, but Biden wants Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee.
He needs Donald Trump to run, one Democratic strategist put it bluntly. If anyone should be thankful Donald Trump is running, its Joe Biden.
The presidents very reason for running again is Trump. For starters, he views Trump as a threat to democracy - and Biden sees himself as the one to save it. Throughout his first term, the president said countless times both publicly and privately that hes the only one who can beat his one-time rival. And his 2024 strategy in many ways is a repeat of the one he had in 2020.
The message Joe Biden ran on in 2020 remains popular with voters and central to this campaign, Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote in a recent memo. This campaign will win by doing the work and ignoring the outside chatter - just like we did in 2020.
If Biden were running against anyone else, Id be worried, the strategist said of the Republican field. He should count his blessings every day that Trump is likely to be the nominee.
Donald Trump: His legal troubles
Donald Trump is on his way to winning the Republican nomination for president not despite his indictments but in part because of them.
The former president can partly thank Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for that.
On April 4, Bragg became the first prosecutor to criminally charge Trump, unveiling a 34-count felony indictment that accused the former president of criminal wrongdoing for disguising hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. And rather than see his poll numbers decline in the GOP presidential primary, Trumps support actually increased.
It wasnt just that Republican voters felt it was a partisan hit job from a Democratic prosecutor, so did Trumps primary opponents. And legal experts including some Democrats doubted Braggs dubious legal theories.
The biggest in-kind campaign contributor to Donald Trump is undoubtedly Alvin Bragg, Chad Connelly, the former chairman of the Republican Party in South Carolina, told The Messenger in May. After that Bragg indictment, the race changed in Trumps favor. Im not saying it will always be on this way. But that Trump indictment brought him a lot of support.
Since then, Trump has faced three other criminal indictments (concerning his handling of classified documents, his role in the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia), but none of those cases had the same doubts expressed about them that Braggs case does.
And by virtue of being both the first case against Trump and the one with the most criticism from legal scholars and experts, Braggs indictment of the former president gave the candidate more latitude to paint all the cases against him as a giant smear from the left, which the prosecutors in the various cases all deny.
Hes never come out and said, Thank God for Alvin, but thank god for Alvin, said one Trump confidant who spoke on condition of anonymity to The Messenger. Who ever wouldve thought that the best thing that could happen to Trump was getting indicted?
Ron DeSantis: The long tail of his gubernatorial victory
Heading into his reelection win last year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantiss campaign wanted to make a statement for both the history books and his looming presidential campaign.
DeSantis accomplished both goals. He won by nearly 20 percentage points in a state once known for razor-thin election margins. And he raised so much money in his political committee during his first term $187 million that he was able to transfer $$82.5 million to a federal super PAC, Never Back Down, to help finance his presidential campaign.
If it wasnt for that money and that momentum, DeSantiss presidential campaign would have nothing to be thankful for these days.
The size of DeSantiss win and the positive press he earned was so alarming to Donald Trump that he announced his presidential bid just a week after the 2022 midterms and continued to take pot shots at his former understudy.
On that same day Nov. 15, 2022 DeSantis took it all in stride, refusing to engage with Trump and sending the message: go check out the scoreboard.
Since then, the reversal of fortune between the two has been stark. Trump has risen. DeSantis has fallen. And even the Florida governor has sounded a little more circumspect.
I had gotten a lot of coverage in the aftermath of the midterm election; we always knew with these national polls that that was a sugar-high, DeSantis told Fox in July.
Nikki Haley: Vivek Ramaswamys relentless attacks
For Nikki Haley, Thanksgiving 2023 came early and often in the form of the Republican presidential debates.
The turkey was her opponent. Vivek Ramaswamy, whom Haley rhetorically stuffed, roasted and carved over and over again on stage.
In three consecutive debates, Ramaswamy drew the spotlight to himself, picked fights with Haley, and was then promptly bodied by the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador. Her campaign reported raising millions off her debate performances. And polls show shes the only candidate on stage who has risen after the debates.
It started Aug. 24 during a debate about Ukraine and Russian president Vladimir Putin. Haley won the exchange by earning repeated applause, stuffing him with this line, You have no foreign policy experience. And it shows! It shows!
For the second debate on Sept. 27, Ramaswamy was explaining why he uses TikTok, prompting Haley to roast Ramaswamy again: every time I hear you, I feel dumber for what you say.
The third debate was more of the same. Ramaswamy decided to mention that Haleys daughter was on TikTok, prompting her bring out the long knives. Leave my daughter out of your voice, she said. Youre just scum.
The fourth presidential debate is set for Dec. 6.
Thats just in time for an early Christmas present.
Dean Phillips: The great state of New Hampshire
Rep. Dean Phillips wouldnt have a presidential campaign without New Hampshire.
The Democrat from Minnesota who launched a longshot campaign against Biden last month has centered his campaign on the Granite State. Hes looking to take advantage of the Democratic National Committees decision to rejigger the primary calendar and supplant New Hampshire with South Carolina to create a primary calendar that better reflects the diversity of the party. Biden, in protest, has not put his name on the New Hampshire ballot although he could win the state through a write-in campaign.
That primary switch alone has animated Phillips bid. On his first day as a candidate, he pledged to restore New Hampshire to the front of the line, signed a license plate that touted the states first status, and slammed Biden for following party rules and skipping the contest.
"I believe in tradition, I believe in democracy. And I think some of the steps they've taken are disenfranchising the very people that we should be actually listening to and participating," Phillips said on his announcement day.
Phillips is a long-shot candidate. Its unlikely he will win New Hampshire, let alone another state. But the antipathy at Biden for the switch, at least from some in the New Hampshire partys grassroots, has given the congressman a foothold, albeit a tiny one.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: His family name
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is most grateful for his last name, which gave him an instant boost in polls, even as his family members poured cold water on his run. He tapped into a need to give voters something other than the status quo, pulling in some voters who don't feel a particular affinity for either Biden or Trump but might have fuzzy feelings for Camelot.
While Kennedy has turned off some Democrats with his stance on issues including COVID-19 vaccination, hes garnered support from some disenchanted voters. A New York Times-Siena poll out earlier this month showed Kennedy receiving up to a quarter of support in some states, including a large number of younger voters. A recent Quinnipiac University national poll also has him receiving 22% of the vote against Biden and Trump, giving both Democrats and Republicans reason to worry about Kennedy playing the role of spoiler.
Im not sure where hes drawing support, one Democratic donor said. But he could definitely screw things up royally either way.
Chris Christie: MSNBC
Chris Christie is trying to win the Republican nomination. But he should really be thankful for a network thats known for drawing Democratic viewership.
The former New Jersey governor is a frequent guest on MSNBC, using a platform that most Republicans would rather insult than appear on to bash Trump and attract the small-dollar donors he needs to appear on the debate stage. Christie is the most outspoken Trump critic in the GOP primary field. Meanwhile, most of Trumps other opponents have avoided criticizing the former president.
Im the only candidate who has been making the case against Donald Trump from the day I entered the race, Christie said during a recent appearance on Morning Joe. Im going to continue to make that case.
Christie recently announced hes hit the 80,000-donor threshold to appear at the December debate, beating out North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson and others who missed the Miami debate earlier this month.
Vivek Ramaswamy: The political podcast explosion
In a matter of months, first-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy went from an unknown quantity to a top five presidential contender, outlasting better-known and more experienced rivals in the primary field. The 38-year-old businessman did it in part by embracing a go-everywhere media strategy with a particular focus on podcasts.
He spoke with Jordan Peterson for nearly two hours. He talked to Russell Brand for even longer. Hes appeared on Ruthless, Full Send, The Iced Coffee Hour and Honestly with Bari Weiss, to name a few. Ramaswamy has his own podcast, too, where hes invited pizza boss Papa John and far-right commentator Alex Jones to talk about cancel culture and politics.
The most recent episode of Ramaswamys The Vivek Show podcast laid out his strategy in its title: Disrupting the Mainstream Media. Circumventing traditional media allowed Ramaswamy to get his message out, and court small-dollar donors, before his poll numbers and crowd sizes drew attention from the mainstream political press.
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What Biden, Trump And The Other Presidential Candidates Should ... - The Messenger