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The reason Im so much fun at parties is that my idea of a good time is to lecture everyone on cryptocurrency. I can pretty much talk bitcoin and blockchain with Hamiltonian fervor all night.

Ever since I began writing about cryptocurrency in general in 2013I believe this story I wrote for Esquire in fall of that year was the first ever mainstream media mention of Ripple (on whose board I now sit) I have been making one point to anyone who will endure my what is cryptocurrency lecture. People are all wrong about the difference between cryptocurrency and real money.

By real money, people invariably mean fiat currency issued by a government. To counter the argument that real money is somehow safer than crypto Ive pointed to Argentinas 40 percentinflation rate, or the Weimar Republic, and its famous wheelbarrows full of money to buy a loaf of bread (which was arguably intentional as Germany sought to repay Treaty of Versailles debt with devalued deutsche marks). And of course the world has watched in horror as Venezuela has devalued the bolivar to the point of meaninglessness.

These are not hypothetical examples. If you think this is all futurist theoretical BS, read up on the devastating effect hyperinflation is having as it transforms what was once South Americas most promising economy into a hellish nightmare in which people are eating their pets. Governments constantly, reliably, invariably and maddeningly ruin their own currencies by giving in to the temptation to overprint it. The beauty of bitcoin is that, like gold, the entire supply of it that will ever exist on earth (21 million coins), is known about, finite, and will never increase.

Still, as powerful as these examples aresome from recent second-world countries and others from past first-world countriesthey do not vividly resonate with Americans. That makes perfect sense. The U.S. dollar, after all, has been so reliable that the very countries I am criticizing, like Argentina and Venezuela, turn to the greenback and use it as a shadow currency to store value as their own money fails.

Even when we see American commodities change dramatically in price, like we witnessed with gasoline in 2008 when it reached $4.11 in July and fell to $1.84 in January, people dont readily seem to connect that its not just gasoline fluctuating but American money fluctuating. If my $10 bought 4 gallons of gas on October 1 and two gallons of gas on November 1, gas doubled in price just as the buying power of the American dollar was cut in half. Its the same thing. (Not precisely the same, actually, but close enough for the point Im making.)

So what Ive been searching for in these years of evangelizing and explaining the revolutionary power of cryptocurrencyincluding bitcoin, ethereum, ripple, litecoin, this new one BAT that Im interested in and othersto transform basically everything, are examples that will resonate without sounding like Im talking about 1930s Germany or the struggles of the second world. These last few weeks, I think Ive got what I need. And it comes heartbreakingly from my home state.

Illinois faces financial distress thats unprecedented for any American state. Without a budget for two years and sitting on top of over $15 billion in unpaid bills, the state is, to use a phrase that State Comptroller Susana Mendoza borrowed from Bonfire, hemorrhaging money as the states spending obligations have exceeded receipts by an average of over $600 million per month over the past year.

While the United States Constitution prevents a state from declaring bankruptcy the way places like Detroit and Orange County have, the situation is so dire that the Tribunes prestige columnist, John Kass, is only partially kidding when he calls for the state to be divided up between its five Midwestern neighbors.

Again, this is not just wonky penciling. The people of Illinois are being crushed by the burden imposed by a state that cannot pay its bills. The Chicago Public Schools, for example, must now pay 9 percent on its adjustable bonds because they are rated as junk. S&P is warning of a negative credit spiral and threatened to lower its rating even further if the state cannot hammer out a budget by July 1, which is less than a week away.

In other words, a bridge that used to cost $100 million to build because thats what it cost to borrow the money from bondholders, now might cost $150 million. Just as we saw in the gasoline example, anytime something costs more US dollars for the exact same product, you can look at it as the cost of a bridge going up, or you can look at it as the value of a dollar falling.

Thats why I believe in cryptocurrency.

Illinois cannot print its own money. I dont know what theyre going to do to crawl out of this mess. But there is no denying that all governments, including the United States, have manipulated their money supplies for political ends. And thats why I am so bullish on the future of cryptocurrency.

This isnt about whether bitcoin will soar to $5,000 or sink to $500. I think either is possible and equally likely, and Im not looking to give investment advice. All Im saying is that I trust currencies that are cryptographically enshrined and limited by the hard realities of math, at least as much as I trust human beings who are subject to the allure of popularity and other shiny objects.

The best book about cryptocurrency is Digital Gold by Nathaniel Popper. And the parts of it that most moved me occurred when he described how this incredibly complicated and novel technology actually affected human lives. One of the early innovators of the bitcoin ecosystem was Wences Casares, who founded Xapo and a bunch of other crypto-friendly fintech startups. When Casares was growing up in Patagonia in the early 80s, the Argentinian government was messing with its currency to disastrous effect. First, they issued a new peso, exchangeable for 10,000 of the old peso. When that failed, they rolled out something called the austral, which was worth 1,000 new pesos (ie, 10 million of the currency that had been in use two years earlier). The inflation rate was more than 1,000 percent a year. Casares describes his mother carrying two grocery bags filled with moneyher wages. He and his sisters rushed with her to the store to buy what they could because the market employed people who did nothing but walk the aisles all day repricing items.

These math-based moneys from the future have a lot of user-unfriendliness and even getting money into and out of accounts can be a customer service hassle. But bagfuls of nearly worthless cash are not an unimaginable reality for millions of people on the planet. Thats the human reason Im willing to continue to bore people with cryptoevangelism.

Read the rest here:
Illinois Is Venezuela and the Solution Is Cryptocurrency - Observer

Michael Novogratz says cryptocurrencies could be worth north of $5 trillion in five years -- if the industry can come out of the shadows.

The Nasdaq got to $5.4 trillion in 1999, why couldnt it be as big? the former hedge fund manager said in an interview, referring the Nasdaq Composite Index. Theres so much human capital and real money being poured into the space and were at the takeoff point.

To get there, though, companies need to develop sound business principles to satisfy regulators and lend legitimacy to the budding industry, one of Wall Streets biggest bitcoin bulls said Tuesday at the CB Insights Future of Fintech conference in New York.

Thats proving an uphill battle amid Bitcoins growing reputation as a currency favored by black marketeers and hackers. The industry took another reputational hit Tuesday after a cyberattack spread around the world, disabling computers and demanding users pay $300 in cryptocurrency to unlock them. It follows the WannaCry hack in May.

While bitcoin was little changed at $2,339.66 as of 2 p.m. in New York, some chipmakers whose products are used in mining the cryptocurrency also retreated. The PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF, known as HACK, erased earlier gains to trade little changed.

Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency, is up more than 140 percent this year, and ether, the digital asset based on the ethereum blockchain, has surged to about $240 from just $8 at the beginning of the year. The cyberattack comes after questions about the sustainability of this years rally and the scaleability of the digital assets had already been dragging down prices.

The recent selloff has shrunk cryptocurrencies total market cap to about $90 billion from a high of over $110 billion, according to Coinmarketcap.com.

For more on the latest cyberattack hitting port operators.

Novogratz said he took some profits on his bitcoin and ether holdings as prices surged, but still has 10 percent of his net worth invested in the sector, including blockchain-based assets he bought in fundraising mechanisms known as initial coin offerings. Hes looking to add more ether if it falls between $200 and $150, and more bitcoin if it falls to $2,000.

Bitcoin could become a viable store of wealth, similar to gold, while ethereum could be the platform underpinning the Googles and Facebooks of the future, while money transfers to securities settlement will probably be done using blockchaintechnology, he said.

Novogratz, who has spoken about investments in bitcoin since 2013 andformerly managed Fortress Investment Group LLCs liquid strategies business, has been one of the most prominent supporters of cryptocurrencies on Wall Street.

Companies need to develop sound business principles to satisfy regulators and lend legitimacy to the budding industry, he said.

"Pay your taxes, because nobody in that space pays taxes. Its a bunch of libertarians," he said, adding he thought a core group of developers have good intentions. "There really is a revolutionary spirit amongst the guys that are building this system."

Link:
Bitcoin Bull Novogratz Unfazed as Cyberattacks Resume Globally - Bloomberg