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Google recently announced a breakthrough in quantum computing. Sundar Pichai, Google's CEO, reportedly compared the achievement to the Wright brothers' first flight. Credit: Composite by Matt Field. (Creative Commons photos by Maurizio Pesce and Steve Jurvetson.)

The English philosopher Sir Francis Bacon is often credited with saying knowledge is power. Although Bacons aphorism is still in circulation, the 16th century thinker clearly didnt predict the advent of the modern-day search engine. Now knowledge is so readily available that information overload, rather, is a problem. Perhaps a more meaningful maxim would be something along the lines of: The ability to sort and process large amounts of knowledge is power. And that ability will be dramatically increasedfor good and illas researchers make progress in the field of quantum computing.

The international security community in particular has been grappling with the implications of access to vast troves of information. Twentieth century practitioners prioritized scientific efforts that improved technologies such as the surveillance drone to collect data. In the 21st century, however, the security community is dealing with the ramifications of those effortsthe need to process the huge amounts of data that drones, satellites, and other technologies can acquire. But in the age of big data and information technologies, practitioners face a challenging new paradigm: Government isnt necessarily at the forefront of development in data processing technology; private industry is. Policy makers must confront the uncomfortable reality that the future of national security now relies on the governments ability to oversee, regulate, and adopt the research and emerging technologies developed by private companies.

Case in point: Google recently claimed to have achieved so-called quantum supremacy, marking an important development in a perennially just-over-the-horizon technology that could dramatically improve the speed at which computers can complete complex tasks. Its also a technology that, if used by adversarial countries, could disrupt important aspects of US national security such as data protection.

Googles claim of quantum supremacy. Googles announcement was another milestone in the international competition to harness data processing technologies like artificial intelligence. Although the significance of the companys accomplishment has been challenged by industry competitors, the announcement at least confirms the steady progress and commitment of private industry leaders to the development of technologies that could have major implications for national security. Quantum supremacy refers to a benchmark indicating that a quantum system can perform a given function faster than a classic computer. Google developed a quantum processor with 53 operational qubitsthe principle unit of information in a quantum computerthat successfully completed a computationally intensive task in only 200 seconds. Google scientists estimated it would take the most powerful classical supercomputer over 10,000 years to complete the same task.

At this point, quantum computers are still mostly being built and tested to execute specific and carefully chosen tasks that could, in theory, be executed classically. The technological limitations of quantum computing are such that accomplishing a given task requires a custom built and programmed quantum computing system. This means that each iterative achievement will likely be respective of the highly specific task that each individually developed quantum computer will be built for and potentially respective of the specific method of operation applied. This technical reality, taken in the context of the standing definition for quantum supremacy, implies there may be several announcements by groups claiming that theyve achieved this or that quantum supremacy.

The necessary progress to definitively surpass classic computers and achieve universal quantum supremacy, rather than piecemeal quantum supremacy, will require both hardware and software improvements. Even after significant innovation, it is highly unlikely that quantum computers will ever replace classical versions for most day-to-day operations. Rather, clever implementation will see the two working most effectively as complements to each other.

Impact on national security. The most suitable applications for quantum computers are problems with large, multi-dimensional parameter spaces that require the manipulation and optimization of significant numbers of independent variables. Consider the ways important national security information is protected and accessed, in technical terms, the ways it is encrypted and decrypted. Due to the high processing power of quantum computers, modern encryption methods that would take classic computers a long time to break would be rendered useless. The unique physical properties of proposed quantum computers would allow them to seek all possible solutions to an encryption algorithm simultaneously, giving an answer that reflects the probability of each outcome. This ability puts national-security-sensitive data at risk. In fact, hackers are already banking on this potentiality and storing available data until some point in the future when the data may be decrypted with quantum computers.

Beyond data processing and manipulation, through increased simulation and computation capabilities, quantum computers could help advance a number of scientific fields, including materials sciences. From improving drone battery-life to solving military logistics issues, researchers are predicting any number of national security applications for quantum computing.

More broadly, quantum computers could augment other emerging information technologies in the security field, like artificial intelligence and machine learning. Likewise, developments in these fields would also lead to an acceleration of quantum computer research. The interconnectedness of these emerging information technologies, and the fact that an improvement in any one of the technologies in the competition for big data primacy would accelerate the others, means it will be critical that governments monitor all information technology research and identify likely coevolution trajectories in order to secure data and infrastructure necessary for national security.

Googles achievement signals another inflection point in that national governments are falling behind private industry as the leading developers of military-relevant technology. Unlike historical technologies that have revolutionized national security, quantum computing research is being driven by robust private industries in both China and the United Statesthe two countries frequently engaged in whats sometimes called the quantum computer arms race.

Although this shift in innovation influence may not necessarily be a bad thingit could prevent broadly relevant technologies from being siloed by the military communityit does require that military and national security practitioners adjust technology development strategies, including addressing the economic and skill barriers to adapting civilian technologies for military application.

Its also worth noting that the focus on civilian development of quantum computers might lead to asymmetric capabilities favoring offensive (operational and manipulative) rather than defensive (protective) technologies. For instance, private industries are most focused on developing quantum computers and less focused on developing quantum-safe encryption methods. This could result in a misbalance between offensive and defensive capabilities that could be catastrophic for national security if the scale tips too far. Governments must proactively identify and prioritize innovation in areas underfunded by the private sector that will be necessary to maintain national security infrastructure.

The US governments approach. In September 2018, the White House issued a national strategy on quantum information science that included near- and long-term development goals. The high-level overview identified a number of specific priorities set by the federal government, including bolstering the national economic, research, and education infrastructure required for quantum information technology development. It also called for collaborating with private industry and with other countries. Congress then passed the National Quantum Initiative Act to allocate funding for a national strategy that fosters public-private-academic partnerships. To address a key vulnerability of the post-quantum-supremacy world, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology is driving the development of quantum-safe encryption methods, an area that has not received comparable resources from private industry. The agencys timeline suggests that the earliest draft of these encryption algorithms and standards will be completed by 2022.

National security priorities. The fact that there was controversy over Googles claim to quantum supremacy indicates that the terminology used to discuss quantum computing is weak and vague. Given the hardware and software limits preventing universal supremacy, the importance of any given instance of quantum supremacy is related to the function that the quantum computer can perform. Striking a proactive and reactive balance to new developments will requires that government project leaders accept that (at least for now) universal quantum computers capable of performing a wide variety of functions are likely decades away from being developed. National security thinkers should instead identify which specific types of supremacy will have meaningful impacts. One that can perform decryption faster than a traditional computer, for instance, would be highly disruptive.

Googles announcement and quantum computing writ large must be considered as part of the broader big data competition. The development of different emerging information technologies, and their respective impacts on national security, must not be considered in isolation. A significant development in any one of the rising technologies will likely have a domino effect and trigger innovation progress in other areas. The promise of quantum computing is the vast new knowledge it will unlock.

Thats also the risk.

Read more:
Information overload: The promise and risk of quantum computing - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The science of quantum physics is being used to build quantum computerspowerful machines that have the ability to solve incredibly complex mathematical equations much more quickly than even the most advanced computers available today.

As such, any data thats encrypted using mathematical equationsincluding banking data, intelligence data protected by the government, and encrypted messages on cell phonesis vulnerable to being exposed by quantum computing. Most notably, in this case, encrypted cryptocurrency datasuch as private wallet keysare also vulnerable to quantum computing technology.

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In other words, quantum computing could potentially be used to uncover every private key on a blockchain network, thus rendering that networks users vulnerable to hacking and theft.

Therefore, the point in time at which quantum computers can solve problems that ordinary computers cannotalso known as the quantum supremacyis considered to be a serious threat to the security of blockchain networks.

How far away are we from this quantum supremacy?

Last week, joked Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of Komodo, a multichain architecture project, to Finance Magnates.

In any case, jokes apart, from a technical standpoint we have to consider the quantum supremacy era already here now. The industry leaders in this area have already publicly presented functional two to three-figure qubit chips, which means with unlimited resources and space this could be scaled up quite fast.

Google, for example, just presented how their 54 Qubit chip performed a computation which would take the worlds most powerful supercomputer 10,000 years in just 200 seconds. This doesnt even cover the non-public segment of this industry.

What are qubits? While a classical computer uses bits, which are represented either 0s or 1s. Qubits, on the other hand, can be 0s or 1sor both at different times. Qubits are the thing that make quantum computers so powerful: if a normal computer is operating with four bits, that computer could arrange those bits in any of 16 combinations, one after the other, in order to solve an equation.

With four qubits, however, a quantum computer could arrange four qubits into 16 combinations all at one time. According to Decrypt, just 20 qubits can store more than a million values in parallel, which allows a quantum computer to be able to work through a problem by performing calculations in parallel rather than one at a time.

However, Vlad Miller, CEO of the Ethereum Express company, explained that blockchain network ledgers are not susceptible to hacking by quantum computers.

Today, records of all cryptocurrency transactions are stored on blockchain. Since the copies of the data are distributed among all users, they are almost impossible to change, he said. No data block can be removed or modified without affecting all other blocks, which would require the consent of most network users. In this sense, blockchain is resistant to quantum computers, and the growth of computing power will not affect the security of the system.

Indeed, the threat posed by quantum computers is more likely to concern the vulnerability of personal cryptocurrency accounts or wallets. These powerful computers can hack user codes that are used to authorize transactions.

[] Until recently, this was considered mathematically impossible, Miller continued. An ordinary binary computer is not able to crack a cryptocurrency key, but for quantum machines, this is not difficult because of the incredible computing power.

Charles Phan, Charles Phan, CTO of Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange Interdax, also pointed out to Finance Magnates that the SHA-256 function used in mining is another area where quantum computers could influence bitcoin [and] crypto. However, the risk is much lower here.

An adversary with a quantum computer could also direct it towards mining bitcoin if they achieve 51% control of the hash power, then they can permit double-spending and do what it likes. They could also cause damage to the network if they control a significant proportion less than 51%.

How immediate is the threat of quantum computing to blockchain networks, and what can these networks do to protect themselves?

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Eventually, quantum computers will force changes in cryptocurrency systems, but todays quantum computers exist only in the lab and are a long way from having practical impacts on cryptocurrencies, said Edward Felten, Co-Founder and Chief Scientist of Offchain Labs, a second-layer scaling solution for Ethereum, to Finance Magnates. Ed is also the former White House Deputy United States Chief Technology Officer.

Over time, cryptocurrencies will need to evolve to use different encryption and hashing methods that are quantum-resistant. Crypto communities should be talking about how to do this, but its not yet an emergency.

At what point will it become an emergency? Vlad Miller said that although the United States National Security Agency predicted in 2016 that decades would pass before quantum computers pose a serious threat to encrypted information, given the pace of development of this technology over the past year and a half, the conclusions of the NSA seem overly optimistic. In fact, many experts believe that the threat will arise in the next 15 or even 10 years.

Therefore, a number of blockchain projects are already preparing for this quantum supremacy.

Kadan Stadelmann explained that while [quantum computers] certainly pose a long-term threat to most cryptocurrencies in their current form, the more legitimate projects are already deploying countermeasures in the form of quantum-proof cryptography.

Even already existing cryptocurrency networks will be able to migrate to quantum-resistant algorithms and digital signature schemes, he said.

Therefore, by the time quantum computers are available to the wider public, expect most remaining cryptocurrencies to have already made the leap into the quantum-resistance movement (so to speak.)

However, this may be easier said than donemetaphorically [speaking], pre-existing chains can already flip a switch and immediately deploy a quantum-resistance mechanism, Stadelmann said to Finance Magnates. However, networks that have historically found it difficult to reach consensus on important software upgrades (for example, the Bitcoin network) could potentially run into trouble.

If a quantum computer breaks this cryptography used by Bitcoin, anyone who has re-used a bitcoin address is vulnerable, Charles Phan explained. However, the information a quantum computer needs isnt available until the first transaction from a public key is seen, so individuals who use a different public key each time would be safe.

Still, though, quantum processors threaten only the modern generation of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, Vlad Miller explained to Finance Magnates.

To protect them, users will have to switch to new authentication methods for authorizing transactions in blockchain-based networks.

Indeed, the solution to this problem will be new methods of cryptography resistant to quantum computing. Today many crypto companies are developing a wide range of such solutions. Some of them are based on long-discovered mathematical methods, such as Lamports signatures, Merkle structures, and the sharing of secrets.

Therefore, it is quite likely that blockchain networks will be secure from the threat that quantum computing poses. Platforms will change their locks once quantum computers start to move out of the lab, said Matthew Hine, Business Strategist at Radix., to Finance Magnates.

But everyone should be very hesitant to publicly publish encrypted information with the expectation that it will be secret forever.

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How Serious Is the Threat of Quantum Computing to Crypto? - Finance Magnates