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Bitcoin struggled to stay above $9,750 and declined towards the $9,500 support against the US Dollar. BTC price could decline heavily if it settles below the key $9,500 support.

Recently, we saw a rejection in bitcoin near the $9,880 level against the US Dollar. BTC even started a downside extension from the $9,847 swing high and declined below the $9,750 support.

Besides, there was break below the $9,680 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It opened the doors for more losses and the price dropped towards the key $9,500 support area, where the bulls emerged.

A swing low is formed near $9,481 and the price is currently correcting higher. It surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $9,841 high to $9,481 low.

However, there are many hurdles on the upside, starting with $9,640 and $9,680. More importantly, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $9,640 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

On the downside, the main support for bitcoin is near the $9,500 area. If there is a downside break and proper close below $9,500, the bears are likely to take over. In the mentioned case, there are chances of more losses towards the $9,200 and $9,050 support levels.

On the upside, the first key resistance is near the trend line and $9,640. The next one is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $9,841 high to $9,481 low.

The main hurdle for bitcoin is near the $9,740 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Therefore, the bulls need to clear the trend line resistance and gain momentum above the 100 hourly simple moving average to start a fresh increase in the near term. If not, there is a risk of a sharp decline below $9,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is slowly moving back into the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently correcting higher towards the 45 level.

Major Support Levels $9,500 followed by $9,200.

Major Resistance Levels $9,680, $9,740 and $9,880.

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This Critical Bitcoin Short-Term Top is Sparking Big Correction Fears - newsBTC

Bitcoin's (BTC) price volatility spiked in January and could further increase over the near term because whales have surfaced.

The cryptocurrencys annualized volatility grew roughly eight percentage points in January to a three-month high of 58.2 percent, according to Krakens monthly report.

Volatility rose as bitcoins price rallied from lows near $6,850 on Jan. 3 to a three-month high of $9,570 on Jan. 31. The cryptocurrency closed out January with 30 percent gains, registering its best January performance since 2013.

With the price rally, whales - those buyers of large numbers of coins - seem to have woken from their long slumber. The number of whale addresses ones with balances ranging from 1K BTC to 10k BTC ticked higher in the second half of January, as noted by Krakens researchers.

The number of whale addresses increased from 2,000 to 2,030, marking a transition to an accumulation phase from the wait and see phase seen in the last four months of 2019.

Historically, that transition has injected volatility into the bitcoin market. For instance, whales began accumulating coins in September 2018 and entered wait-and-watch mode in early 2019. Meanwhile, the annualized volatility bottomed out below 20 percent by mid-November and skyrocketed to 100 percent by the end of December.

On similar lines, the spike in price volatility in the second quarter of 2019 was preceded by accumulation by large wallets.

The peculiar behavior could be associated with whales having the resources to affect the market with large orders.

During the accumulation phase, whales eat into market liquidity, Ashish Singhal, co-founder and CEO of CRUXPay and CoinSwitch.co told CoinDesk. That affects the supply-demand ratio and causes volatility to re-enter the market.

Sudden price swings have been observed during whales accumulation period. The cryptocurrencys sharp rise from $4,100 to $5,100, seen on April 2, 2019, was reportedly caused by an order worth about $100 million spread across three exchanges.

Whale action has also led to big price sell-offs in the past; a bitcoin flash crash from $12,600 to $12,100 in less than 15 minutes on July 9, 2019, was triggered by a massive sell order of 6,500 BTC on cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

Singhal added that HODLers addresses with balances ranging from 10 BTC to 100 BTC also influence liquidity and volatility. According to historical data, volatility tends to rise once the 10 to 100 BTC cohort concludes accumulation.

As the growth in the number of addresses with 10 to 100 BTC topped out in November 2018, volatility kicked in and rose sharply from 20 percent to 100 percent. A similar divergence between the two metrics was seen during the four months to mid-July 2019.

Currently, the 10 to 100 BTC cohort is in the accumulation phase, having bottomed out in November. The number of addresses have increased from 135,000 to 137,500 over the past three months.

"Family offices, high-net-worth individuals and proprietary trading accounts have been building BTC positions continuously in the 10 to 100 range. It's a sign of growing adoption of bitcoin as an investment," Gabor Gurbacs, digital asset strategist/director at VanEck/MVIS, told CoinDesk.

If HODLers exit the accumulation phase and whales continue to snap up coins over the coming weeks, the demand supply-imbalance could worsen, resulting in a big jump in volatility.

The problem, however, is that it is difficult to predict how long these periods of accumulation for HODLers will last, said Connor Abendschein, crypto research analyst at Digital Assets Data.

The ongoing accumulation by HODLers could last at least for a few more weeks, with the cryptocurrency set to undergo mining reward halving in three months.

The rewards per block mined on bitcoins blockchain will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at some point in May. Essentially, miners would have fewer bitcoins to sell after May, and that could lead to a supply deficit.

In the past, markets have priced in the impending supply cut by rallying to a new market cycle top (the highest point from the preceding bear market low) in the calendar year of reward halving, but on a date before the event.

Thus, if history were to repeat itself, bitcoin could rise above the June 2019 high of $13,880 before May. With such strong bullish expectations dominating the market sentiment, HODLers are unlikely to end accumulation anytime soon.

However, that does not necessarily mean volatility would crash, as whales are also likely to continue accumulating coins ahead of the reward halving.

If the whales shift to accumulating bitcoin while HODLers are still within their current phase, it would suggest an additional increase in demand for BTC at near the same as the mining supply is scheduled to be cut in half in early May, Abendschein told CoinDesk. This imbalance has the potential to not only see a spike in volatility, but also in price.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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On-Chain Activity Suggests Bitcoin Price Volatility Will Continue, Thanks to 'Whales' - Coindesk

Bitcoins (BTC) price hit $9,260 on Feb. 20 and dropped to $9,350 on BitMEX the very next day. Analysts say these two pullbacks were liquidity fills and that the dominant cryptocurrency is likely to sustain its bullish market structure.

Technical analysts and industry executives have laid out the exponential moving average golden cross, strong weekly support at $9,500, halving, liquidity fills and rising on-chain activity as the five main factors to support the continuation of Bitcoins upsurge over the coming months.

A golden cross on a candlestick chart occurs when a short-term moving average line meets a long-term moving average line. When the golden cross is supported with high volumes, it often indicates that a significant upsurge is near. One cryptocurrency trader pointed out that the last time a golden cross occurred in the Bitcoin market, Bitcoins price went on to see an extended rally from the $4,000s to $14,000.

At the time, the golden cross was also preceded by a 10% fall, causing fear in the market before the run up. Theoretically, the pullback before the rally leads more short sellers to add to their positions, causing a short squeeze when the market spurts upwards.

The cryptocurrency market is heavily swayed by short and long squeezes in the margin trading market. When positions build on platforms like BitMEX and Binance with high leverage, a large market buy or sell can liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of contracts, creating massive volatility.

However, there is speculation that the golden cross and the dreaded death cross are not as efficient and accurate as laid out to be. When the golden cross was implemented in equities trading over a period of eight years, it showed varied results, demonstrating that the indicator is not a reliable signal as a trading strategy.

The last golden cross in the Bitcoin market occurred on Dec. 9, 2019, and the market did not enter an extended rally for over a month after it flashed. Hence, while some traders remain generally bullish on the formation of the golden cross for the first time since December 2019, historical data suggests its reliability still remains uncertain.

As emphasized by popular cryptocurrency trader Cred, Bitcoins price has been at a critical point throughout the past two days, sitting on a heavy support level of $9,688. A close below the $9,688 level on the daily and weekly candlestick charts of Bitcoin would indicate bearish continuation for the cryptocurrency.

However, if the Bitcoin price successfully holds above that level throughout the next two to three days, the analyst noted that it is likely to signal a bullish continuation. Cred said:

Close below yesterdays high [$9,688] equals bearish continuation likely. The corollary of this view: If price pushes through, Id expect aggressive sellers to puke and price to unwind higher to $9,800$9,900. Thatd be an early signal of weekly bullish continuation.

Although the retesting of the $9,688 support can be considered a bearish event, given that the failure to maintain it as a support could lead to a steep correction. Traders foresee BTC targeting higher resistance levels like $10,900 and $11,500 when defended.

Break and hold $9,800 on high time frames, and I'll turn short-term bullish. Until then, whales are just playing with your emotions, cryptocurrency trader Josh Rager said, reaffirming that the market structure remains uncertain.

Bitcoins block reward halving scheduled to occur in late April has been the most important narrative around the cryptocurrency market throughout 2020. Technical analysts remain divided on whether the halving is priced into Bitcoin, and whether the lead up to the halving could cause Bitcoins price to rally without significant pullbacks. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that he does not believe the halving has been priced into Bitcoin.

The halving is one of the few fundamental factors that can have an immense impact on Bitcoins price trend because it affects the supply of the asset. Given that the main value proposition of Bitcoin is its fixed supply, any event that affects it is likely to have a large effect on the price.

The block reward halving on the Bitcoin blockchain network happens every four years, but there is a widespread belief that many retail and institutional investors, especially newcomers, are not fully aware of the implications. Zhao explained:

I personally believe the halving has not been priced in just looking at price. This is a personal opinion, and I could be very wrong. I think the market is not efficient. We think everybody gets all the information immediately, and they absorb it and understand it, but that doesn't happen.

After the halving, Bitcoin mining will not be profitable unless its price goes over the breakeven point. The price of mining can be adjusted if fewer miners are active on the network. Historically, the Bitcoin blockchain network has not seen an extended period go by with a decline in its hash rate. For that reason, the price reacting to the halving rather than the hash rate responding is more likely. The TradeBlock research team wrote in a paper:

The gross cost to mine one Bitcoin at projected levels following the halving would be $15,062. If we adjust our assumption on hash rate and assume hash rate stays nearly flat from current levels, then the cost to mine one Bitcoin would fall to $12,525.

There is a possibility that Bitcoins price can drop after the halving and still have minimal effects on the hash rate because large miners operate with long-term contracts with electricity providers and equipment manufacturers. In that scenario, miners would be unwilling to sell the Bitcoin they mine, further causing the supply in the market to drop, potentially pushing the price up.

Prior to the recent drop, Adaptive Funds on-chain analyst, Nik Yaremchuk, said that Bitcoins price could dip to as low as $9,300 to fill liquidity. At the time, Yaremchuk suggested a minor correction that Bitcoins price was at around $10,300:

We got a little pullback, as according to Volume Heatmap, we got stuck in the loop of a large volume location. I think the picture looks weak now, and I expect a decline to $9.5K$9.3K where there is a stronger support loop.

Liquidity fills, like the drop to the $9,300s on Feb. 20 and 21, are often considered early signs of bullish continuation, as it provides the ongoing rally a stronger floor or support. When an asset spikes up vertically without any supportive pullback, its typically met with a steep correction. Short-term pullbacks in an uptrend establishes a solid footing for an asset to climb up over an extended time frame.

According to Willy Woo, general partner at Adaptive Fund, the breakout above the $10,000 level was the real deal because it was backed with high on-chain investor activity.

Investors like CNBCs Brian Kelly and Fundstrats Thomas Lee have used fundamental factors such as address growth and overall blockchain usage to forecast cycles in the Bitcoin market. In previous bull cycles, an extended Bitcoin rally was preceded with a rise in on-chain investor activity, prompting analysts like Woo to believe that $10,000 is not the local top for Bitcoin.

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After Overnight Flash Crash, Here Are 5 Reasons Why Bitcoin Will Rally Again - Cointelegraph

Its happened: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency got their own segment, albeit brief, on The Simpsons one of televisions most popular shows. Ever.

So what exactly happened during that segment? And more importantly, how is the industry responding to it?

To create hype for the episode (S31, E13) of The Simpsons being realized on Sunday night, the show released a short segment of the upcoming episode: a Simpsonified Jim Parsons, the actor behind Sheldon in The Big Bang Theory, explaining crypto currency.

During the segment, Parsons briefly explained how blockchain is essential to the function of Bitcoin, then explained how the chain works, including its distributions and how blocks are added to the chain.

The segment, which was somewhat factually questionable at times, also included a joking caption card, in which the show makers joked that they know who Satoshi is, but were not telling, and also joked by writing That is a total pile of cryptocurrency, referencing the more profanity-filled version of that phrase.

Crypto Twitter has quickly become enamored with this two-minute segment, sharing it everywhere and anywhere. No one has yet come to a conclusive opinion on how what was said will affect public perception of the industry.

This segment comes as his writer has noticed a strong uptick in mainstream media outlets (CNN, Bloomberg, Barrons, Financial Times, etc.) covering Bitcoin and the broader industry.

With mainstream mentions of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency by shows like The Simpsons and outlets as well-known as CNN, it should come as no surprise that data indicates retail investors are flooding back into the industry.

Late last month, analyst CryptoKeanotedthat search interest for Buy Bitcoin just recently reached a seven-month high, reaching a level of 10 per his analysis. This is important because a strong uptick in interest for the aforementioned term, which most attribute to consumers, not institutions, marked the start of 2017s effectively parabolic rally to $20,000.

Not to mention, our analysis found that interest from Googlers in altcoin, Bitcoin halving, Ethereum, amongst other terms, have started to grow.

Also, industry researcher from The Block Larry Cermak recently pointed out that Coinbases average daily volume has shot up in February, which has historically been a really good sign [for] the market.

The numbers indicate that the exchange saw an average of $342.46 million worth of trading volume every day in February thus far. $342.46 million is nearly three times that of the average seen in December 2019.

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The Simpsons Just Ran a Bitcoin Segment, and Crypto Twitter Is Raving About It - newsBTC