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Anyone following crypto news has undoubtedly seen numerous articles that forecast Bitcoins (BTC) valuation following the upcoming halving slated to take place in May of this year. And although the price of Bitcoin is clearly important to the industry and investors at large, planning for the halving is particularly critical to cryptocurrency miners.

Once the halving occurs, the unfortunate truth is that the profitability of all but the most efficient mining operations will be greatly challenged. To stay in the green, many will either be forced to upgrade their equipment or to shut down their mining operations altogether.

However, careful planning can mitigate these risks, and there are several steps miners should take to set themselves up for sustained profitability in the wake of the halving. To understand all the factors at play, its important to review what makes mining profitable in the first place. This includes:

The hash rate is the estimated number of tera hashes per second that the Bitcoin network is performing. It is a general measure of the networks processing power and of how many times the network can attempt to add a block to the Bitcoin blockchain every second.

The hash rate is a good indicator of the networks health, and while it cant be precisely measured, it can be estimated based on the current difficulty and time of block confirmations of Bitcoin.

Mining Bitcoin is not easy, and it has only gotten harder as more miners have joined the network. The difficulty of mining a block correlates with the overall network hash rate, and thus with the competition. The more people trying to solve a block, the more difficult it is to do so.

Miners can increase their chances by employing high-powered application-specific integrated circuits that are efficient and always running. The ultimate goal is to solve a block that is worth more than it costs to solve. Miners can also improve odds by joining a mining pool, in which profits are shared with the other members of the pool and vice versa.

Its not expected for the halving to have a big impact on mining difficulty. It may adjust slightly to make up for no-longer-profitable miners leaving the network, which will allow for the remaining miners to mine more profitably and to drive forward the hash rate, price and difficulty in general.

The electrical efficiency of mining devices has a massive impact on overall profitability. If miners are expending excess energy and paying more in electrical costs than receiving as a result of solving a block, theyre going to end up in the red.

Related: Bitcoin Mining's Electricity Bill: Is It Worth It?

A more efficient device will lead to greater profits in less time while also expending less energy, thus, reducing costs. Such efficient machines are going to be needed to correct for the reduction in block reward following the halving. Machines, such as the Antminer S9, are going to become essentially obsolete and will need to be replaced with newer, more efficient miners like the Antminer S17.

The power cost also has a big impact on profitability and is directly related to the power consumption as well as to the cost of electricity at the mining operation. As more efficient machines are needed to keep up with the reduced revenue following the halving, miners will need to run operations in a place with low energy costs.

Mining colocation centers offer high power and low costs of energy, along with several other benefits, such as 24/7 security and equipment oversight. Its strongly suggested that miners consider state-of-the-art facilities throughout the country to help them make the most of their operations at a fraction of the cost and consumption.

This is what halving is all about. The current block reward of 12.5 BTC will be halved to 6.25 in the spring, and the revenue of all miners on the network will be cut in half, as well. The only way to make up for this is to increase mining power and reduce operational costs.

The price of Bitcoin has historically responded well to previous halvings for those miners capable of remaining in the market after the fact. However, this has been the subject of considerable debate in the crypto community, and although opinions vary, the outlook is bullish.

The bottom line is that when the Bitcoin block reward halves, so will the total revenue generated by all miners. If the hash rate, power consumption and power cost all stay the same as they were before, its likely that a mining operation will be unprofitable if the hardware hasnt been upgraded to remain competitive.

When getting into this space, its essential to keep emotions out of the equation. Its best to rely on the numbers and objectively analyze trends and key indicators to set oneself up for the best chance at success. This is certainly easier said than done in todays environment, as social media, family and friends have made it easier than ever to become influenced by outside sources. Still, it is important to understand that long-term trends are more indicative of where the market is headed than are random fluctuations.

Looking back at the last two halving events in 2012 and 2016, both led to new market highs for Bitcoins price within a year to a year and a half. No doubt that the upcoming halving will impact the market, and although we cant know for certain what will happen, if the demand for Bitcoin remains the same and scarcity is greater, the expected response would be to see the price increase. By how much, it is hard to say.

For those committed to the long-term play, good planning and investing in the latest hardware seems prudent. Going a bit further, for those who dont host their own mining equipment, analyzing hosting options and locking in competitive pricing now in a multi-year contract can help manage costs in the coming months.

The best piece of advice for miners: Assess your needs today and well in advance of the halving. As Benjamin Franklin once famously noted, If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Dave Perrill is the CEO at Compute North. A 25-year veteran of the IT and information security industry, Perrill has been keenly immersed in the cryptocurrency mining industry and blockchain technology since its formative days. He founded and subsequently sold two technology companies, including an Internet Service Provider/Managed Security Provider, SecureConnect, which was acquired by Trustwave Holdings in 2012. He also has extensive experience in networking, data center engineering, scaling large IT systems and security.

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Are Miners Prepared for the Halving of Bitcoin? - Cointelegraph

Cattle graze at the Buffalo Gap Wind Power project near Abilene, Texas.

To make money mining cryptocurrencies you need fast microprocessors and cheap electricity to run them. It also helps to be in a cold climate, because a roomful of computers puts out a lot of heat, which slows them down. Thats why the worlds biggest miners tend to set up shop in places like Iceland, with its plentiful geothermal power, or Washington state and upstate New York, which enjoy cheap hydropower.

Thats why it seemed odd that a crypto-mining startup called Layer1 Technologies chose as its center of operations an empty part of west Texas, which suffers through 90-degree-plus days for nearly half the year. Even in February it can get hot. I was shvitzing, says Alex Liegl, CEO of Layer1, who was out there recently 100 miles west of Midland setting up the companys first two bitcoin factories 20-by-8 shipping containers chock full of bitcoin miners. If they were air-cooled, the processors would burn up, he says. But theyre not. Instead, the mining machines are immersed in vats of liquid a non-conductive solution that keeps them cool.

Why go to the trouble? Because the real draw of west Texas is its cheap power. Were not talking about the Texas mainstays of oil and gas, but rather wind. Texas is by far the biggest wind power generator in the United States, with 29,000 megawatts installed and 7,600 mw under construction. If the Lone Star state were its own country it would rank fifth in wind power worldwide. When the gusts come at night the power generated is often so plentiful that grid operators have to pay customers to use it.

This gets crypto miners excited. Its the cheapest power in the world, at scale, says Liegl, 27, who co-founded Layer1 in 2017 years ago alongside Jakov Dolic, who previously cofounded whats said to be the worlds biggest bitcoin cloud mining service provider, called Genesis Mining.

Last year Layer1 received a $50 million cash infusion from its v.c. investors led by billionaire Peter Thiel, alongside Shasta Ventures and Digital Currency Group. That raise valued Layer1 at $200 million, and gave Liegl the capital he needed to acquire an entire electric substation capable of handling 100 megawatts, and 30 acres of land on which they aim to install a village consisting of dozens of their container-based bitcoin factories, each of which draws 2.5 mw (enough to power more than 1,000 homes).

Liegls strategy is to make Layer1 independent of any third-party suppliers or service providers. That way he can be certain that even when bitcoin prices surge and suppliers hike their prices, Layer1s economics will be insulated. Thats why the company is manufacturing its own processors and outfitting its own containers in factories in China and Croatia. We want to avoid all edge risks and be at the point where no one can take away our advantage.

Another startup: Peter Thiel and Elon Musk at the launch of PayPal, 2000.

Theres a power arbitrage opportunity as well. In the summertime when air conditioners in Dallas, Houston and Austin are going full tilt, Texas electricity prices sometimes surge to nosebleed levels. When that happens, Layer1 will be able to make more money by shutting off its mining machines and allowing the power to flow through its substation to the grid. We can stabilize the grid by selling capacity for curtailment at the push of a button, says Liegl.

Liegl grew up in Germany then studied math and philosophy at Stanford. He was first exposed to bitcoin during a stint working on the special investments desk at the Stanford Management Company (which boasts a $27 billion endowment). He describes Peter Thiel as an invigorating conversationalist, who traces the logic tree then proceeds and who sees bitcoin as a useful hedge against central bank policy missteps. Liegl credits Thiels investment as enabling Layer1 to gain a first mover advantage on their liquid cooled mining machines. Its easier to keep liquid chilled than air, and Liegl claims that Layer1 is able to overclock its processors, essentially running them at twice the rate they would be able to in an air-conditioned space. Whats more, the liquid keeps away the dust, which along with tumbleweeds is in no short supply.

Liegl is convinced that his machines will avoid obsolescence for at least 5 years because chip cycles have lengthened. Chips have little differentiation now; cheaper electricity and more efficient cooling is most important.

Layer1 wont say how many bitcoin it expects to mine in Texas this year. Liegl says theyre profitable enough that hes already thinking about pursuing an IPO in order to scale nonlinearly and potentially fill the vacant position of being the bitcoin mining company. He envisions in time having enough machines to consume 1 gigawatt of power.

And what happens if they run out of cheap wind? My personal dream is to own a nuclear plant in the future.

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Why Is This Peter Thiel-Backed Startup Mining Bitcoin In West Texas? - Forbes

Canada decides a CBDC is unnecessary while the Twitterati debate BTC as a safe haven and the six-year anniversary of Mt. Gox brings reflection.

Bitcoin (BTC) is having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. Many are using the dump - which from a timing perspective aligns with a broader market sell-off on coronavirus fears - as a way to diminish the bitcoin as a safe haven narrative.

In this episode, @nlw revisits that narrative and argues it is uncomfortably bunched up with the uncorrelated asset narrative, or, as Chamath Palihapitiya calls it, schmuck insurance.

This episode also covers:

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

Excerpt from:
Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven or 'Schmuck Insurance'? - CoinDesk - Coindesk

Research by Jesus Rodriguez and Lucas Outumuro ofIntoTheBlock

Derivatives are becoming an important element of the crypto markets. With more exchanges introducing products such as futures, perpetual swaps or options, the influence of derivatives in crypto markets has been increasing linearly. With the increase in derivative trading comes more data and with more data the opportunity of producing richer analytics that evaluates derivative products to extrapolate insights about the behavior of crypto assets.

From an analytical standpoint, derivatives are an incredible source of intelligence in capital markets and crypto is not an exception. For starters, derivatives are a clear indicator of the market sentiment in crypto assets as well as an accurate descriptor of behaviors such as hedging and speculation.

Additionally, derivatives are one of the elements that can contribute to the eventual rationality of crypto markets and become a key indicator for important aspects such as risk monitoring and portfolio management. In the current, still immature, state of the crypto markets, derivatives can have a disproportionate effect in price fluctuations which make it an even more interesting aspect to consider when studying crypto assets. If we look at this weeks movements in the Bitcoin price through the lens of derivative contracts, we can extrapolate some very interesting insights.

In the last seven days, Bitcoin has experienced a strong bearish momentum dropping over $10,000. The market behavior is attributed to macro-factors such as the impact of the coronavirus and its negative impact in global capital markets. However, crypto derivative contracts such as futures and perpetual swaps help paint a more complete narrative of the current market turmoil. Specifically, the indicators of volume, open interest, turnover ratio and basis are incredibly useful tools to comprehend Bitcoins recent price drop and what may follow.

Perpetual swaps, which essentially function as futures contracts without an expiration date, have quickly been adopted as the crypto space go-to derivative contract. During the recent price drop, Bitcoin perpetual swaps volume reached a yearly high on February 26, surpassing $14 billion traded within 24 hours. Although this is a very large number, it is important to take into account that volumes are a function of leverage. With the option to select leverage of 100x (and sometimes even higher) in popular derivatives exchanges, perpetual swaps volumes have quickly surpassed spot volumes for several exchanges like Binance and Huobi.

While price and volume are the two main metrics of which indicators are derived for traditional technical analysis, derivatives trading introduces a third elemental factor: open interest. Open interest is the total amount of outstanding investor positions, usually measured as the dollar amount of open contracts in the case of cryptocurrency derivatives. In other words, open interest reflects the cumulative amount of open positions, regardless of the direction of the trades (includes both long and short data).

For example, lets say a $100 million long contract is opened at a price of $10,000 with a liquidation price of $9,000 at this moment both volume and open interest would increase by $100 million. (To clarify the liquidation price is the level at which a leveraged position is closed due to unrealized losses reaching the level of initial capital used to fund the position.) Lets then say that the price reaches $9,000 this effectively closes this position, therefore reducing open interest by $100 million, while volume still increases reaching a total of $200 million.

Open interest for perpetual swaps so far this year peaked on February 18 at $2.26B, right when Bitcoin registered a lower high. In the last week, open interest fell to a low of $1.9B on February 27 as prices dropped, indicating that several long positions were either closed or, perhaps more likely, liquidated. Additionally, we can see a spike in open interest in February 24 and 25 preceding the large price decline on February 26 hinting to an increase in the amount of investor short trades at that moment.

Afterward, though, open interest dropped 12 percent pointing to some of these positions being closed, a sign of weakening bearish momentum.

Another helpful metric introduced in derivatives trading is the turnover ratio, which is the 24-hour volume for a contract over its open interest. In a nutshell, this represents the ratio of short-term speculation and hedging in a contract relative to its longer-term open positions. As one may expect, the turnover ratio tends to increase in volatile days as traders intend to profit from quick price movements. While volatility attracts trading volume, it usually also leads to decreases in open interest as a significant amount of positions get liquidated. Because of these relationships, the turnover ratio provides interesting insights on the expectations and reactions derivatives traders have towards volatility

This pattern can be seen on two of the most volatile days in the recent Bitcoin retracement, February 19 and February 26. As Bitcoin dropped over $700 on February 26 from its high point to its low, turnover quickly spiked to a monthly high. While the turnover ratio varies across exchanges it does tend to move in tandem, averaging around 5x for top exchanges versus a weekly average of 3.51. Following this drop, the turnover ratio stabilized but at a slightly higher average level indicating that Bitcoins recent relative volatility may resume.

A natural complement to the turnover ratio is the basis indicator. While the turnover ratio can offer insights into volatility, the basis provides a better understanding of price movements. Basis is the premium (or discount) between the spot price and the futures contract price.

Over time, this premium or discount decreases as futures price converge towards spot prices approaching the expiration date. In traditional markets, this concept is often tied with the concepts of contango and backwardation. In essence, a futures contract is considered to be in contango when its priced at a premium relative to current prices and in backwardation when its at a discount. Since basis is the index price minus the futures price, premiums are shown as negative values for basis and discounts as positive.

Going back to Bitcoins recent drop, basis increased significantly meaning that the premium decreased. However, futures contracts settling on March 27 still remain in contango, as seen in the graph below, which is a sign that expectations remain positive among derivatives traders.

While it may come as no surprise that the recent price decline is reflected on a decrease on the contract premium, it is worth noting out that the basis also appears to have a strong correlation with the price movement the day after. Throughout the month of February, the basis has had a remarkable 0.7 r-squared versus price movements on the following day, indicating the strong relationship between futures market activity and changes in spot prices.

Overall, these indicators demonstrate the prominence that derivatives markets are having in the crypto space. Analyzing the volume and open interest in the recent Bitcoin price drop point to the fact that several long positions got liquidated in the past few days, but is also showing a decrease in the bearish momentum. The subsequent spike in the turnover ratio demonstrates how derivatives traders looked for short-term hedging and speculating opportunities to take advantage of the recent volatility.

Lastly, changes in futures contracts premium, which can be seen in the basis, indicate how derivatives traders positioning end up reflecting in spot prices. Ultimately, these examples confirm the importance of derivatives indicators as effective complements to traditional technical analysis and blockchain-specific metrics.

Jesus Rodriguezis the CEO-CTO of IntoTheBlock, a market intelligence platform for crypto assets. He is a computer scientist, a speaker, and author on topics related to crypto and artificial intelligence.

Lucas Outumurois a Sr. Researcher at IntoTheBlock, a market intelligence platform for crypto assets. His areas of focus include crypto derivatives, DeFi and web 3.0 in general.

Bitcoin, currently ranked #1 by market cap, is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours. BTC has a market cap of $159B with a 24 hour volume of $44.59B.

Chart by CryptoCompare

Bitcoin is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

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Derivatives tell an interesting story of the recent Bitcoin price drop - CryptoSlate