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A Bitcoin Bastion In The Wild West – Forbes

Eight years ago, Caitlin Long was a card-carrying member of the financial establishment. As head of Morgan Stanleys pension advisory group, she oversaw the retirement funds for dozens of employers. The dust from the impact of the Great Recession, which wiped out billions of dollars in market value from her clients, was just beginning to settle.

The Harvard Law grad, who cut her teeth doing mergers and acquisition work at Salomon Brothers, tried to understand what went wrong and if anything could be done to prevent another collapse. The problem was, no one really knew what happened. Loans had been made to lenders who loaned to lenders ad nauseum, until the providers of capital, like her own clients, had been lost between the cracks of countless ledgers.

And then, in 2013, she discovered bitcoin, the countercultural currency that relied on a single, shared ledger, called a blockchain, controlled, not by the centralized authorities that failed to prevent the 2008 meltdown, but by a community of coin owners. It appealed to Longs rebellious, libertarian streak, who bought some bitcoin for $30 from cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox.

In spite of bitcoins promise to let investors own their own assets, Long trusted the exchange with her password, and when it lost $500 million a year later, some of her investment vanished too. Not long after, a client of hers, a pension fund for 30,000 people had a similar experience. She discovered that several billion dollars in bonds listed on the account statement werent available for sale. While Mt. Gox lost its customers funds through a hack, the pension fund had loaned out the client securities.

While securities lending is kosher if the client permits itand shares in the lending fees in this case the client had explicitly forbidden the practice. It struck me as very unfair to mom and pop pensioners, she says. She gave the custodian until the next day to fix the problem, or she would be calling the cops at the Securities & Exchange Commission. Magically, the assets came back.

Long poses in front of a sign in Yellowstone National Park.

Longs experience with bitcoin had given her a new way to understand what was happening to her clients, and how blockchain could solve it. Investors relying on third parties dont actually own their assets as much as they might think they doothers were profiting on their hard-won investments. The solution, she hopes, is a new kind of financial institution that crosses the divide between cryptocurrency custodians and traditional dollar-based banking.

This is not an easy task, given the natural antipathy between banking authorities and crypto. If there is one place where it can be done however, it would be Wyoming, where Long grew up and to which she returned last summer after two decades on Wall Street. We have a history of breaking ranks, she says, from a home on a dirt road where traffic means a herd of antelope and self-sufficiency means a Colt .223 rifle. Thats the culture I grew up in, and it never left me.

Long, 50, is the daughter of a professor of electrical engineering and an elementary school teacher who taught the children of miners. She earned a bachelors degree in political economy at the University of Wyoming, which she proudly declares has been bucking the system since 1866. As an undergrad, she joined in the state of Wyomings fight against a federal push to raise the legal drinking age. After earning degrees in public policy and law from Harvard University, she spent 22 years at Salomon, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. Then she spent a year and a half as president of enterprise blockchain startup Symbiont in New York City.

We have a history of breaking ranks. Thats the culture I grew up in, and it never left me.

In spite of her Mt. Gox losses, Long came out well in the bitcoin market and, in August 2016, set out to donate some of her bitcoin to the University of Wyoming, whose new motto, appropriately enough, is the world needs more cowboys. State banking law made the transfer difficult, however. So this cowboy, who twice hit a target with her rifle from 850 yards, decided to change the law.

Two years ago Long proposed a new regulatory regime that would make it easier for banks to open accounts for cryptocurrency businesses. Next she landed a spot on the Wyoming Blockchain Task Force, which inspired the legislature to enact 18 laws to facilitate crypto financing. One of those statutes allowed her to make a six-figure donation to the university to fund female engineers. Another permits state charters for a new kind of institution that can handle both dollars and crypto.

This year Long cofounded an enterprise that aims to get the first of those charters. If all goes according to plan, Avanti Bank & Trust will open up sometime next year, with an office in Cheyenne and the right to do business in at least 40 states. Part bitcoin custodian, part traditional bank, Avanti aims to be able to take custody of cryptocurrencies the way exchanges like Coinbase do while also holding dollars on deposit at the Federal Reserve. By virtue of this asset crossover, Avanti would be positioned to service corporate customers that do business on the blockchain but need to cover payrolls and tax bills in dollars.

Avanti, of course, has to deal with not just the cowboy regulators in Cheyenne but the straight-laced ones in Washington, D.C. The strict regulations of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, aimed at preventing bank failures, get in the way. Long will end-run the FDIC by not having FDIC insurance. Instead, her bank will keep customers dollar assets safe by investing them entirely in deposits at the Fed and in a narrow list of eligible Treasury and federal agency securities.

The economic chaos now engulfing the globe as a result of COVID-19, may play into Avantis hands. In the traditional banking system, large depositors with amounts beyond FDIC coverage get their protection via a banks equity cushion. That cushion, representing the losses that bank shareholders have to absorb before depositors are exposed, can be as little as 8% of assets, with further reduced requirements already in the works. Were moving to a financial system, where solvency is really going to matter again, she says. And provably solvent financial institutions are ultimately going to win in the marketplace.

Long pets a baby bison at a ranch in Utah.

As a result, Long thinks that banks like Avanti, that dont lend out depositors money, could prove attractive even to clients that dont deal in crypto. Instead of making money by lending money, Long says, Avanti will charge fees for services. While the bank will take customer deposits in U.S. dollars, the trust side of Avanti will custody bitcoin and perhaps more importantly, securities issued on a blockchain, similar to how State Street custodies traditional securities. There are eight products weve identified that Avanti will be able to offer that do not exist in the marketplace today precisely because traditional banks cant custody crypto and trust companies dont have access to the Fed directly.

She goes on: We have had so many experiences with banks and correspondent banks that dont want to do business with [crypto]. The institutional investment community wants to know their custodian has direct access to the Fed and isnt reliant on a third party for liquidity.

While growth of these banks will likely be slow, the potential is huge.The state best known for its cattle and coal industries is following a playbook written by Delaware in 1899, when it created a freewheeling law that gave it an outsized share of the work of incorporating businesses. Similarly, in 1981, the largely agricultural South Dakota crafted credit-friendly legislation that attracted the likes of Citi and Mastercard, $2.3 trillion of deposits and 29,000 jobs, more than mining, logging and construction combined. It is noteworthy that both Wyoming and South Dakota lack a personal income tax.

Perhaps the largest obstacle to Avantis success is technology. Bridging a crypto trust to a U.S. bank, and then connecting that bank directly to the Federal Reserve, is no small feat. While Long and her cofounders write the state charter application, chief technology officer Bryan Bishop is hard at work on how to securely link Avanti to the Fed and to repositories of cryptocurrency.

Were moving to a financial system, where solvency is really going to matter again, and provably solvent financial institutions are ultimately going to win in the marketplace.

Last year Bishop, a former bitcoin core developer who wrote code still used to select bitcoin from a wallet, published his work on a new kind of bitcoin vault with an internal claw-back mechanism making it easier to recover stolen bitcoin. Another project would give customers access to their private keys, even while the bank maintained some responsibility for the funds. In partnership with another of Bishops former employers, Victoria, British Columbia-based Blockstream, which raised $101 million to build out the bitcoin ecosystem, Bishop believes the technology could enable a new era of security in crypto. The idea of fixing and improving this whole pipeline is really appealing to me, says Bishop.

The more Avanti looks like a bank, the more competitors it will face. In custodying crypto it will compete with Coinbase, BitGo, Gemini and Paxos. In serving the dollar-banking needs of bitcoin businesses it will compete with Silvergate, Signature and Metropolitan. In the race to create the crossover entities permitted by the new Wyoming law, it is joined by four other outfits, says Chris Land, the general counsel of Wyomings banking department. Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken says its one of those four.

Long raised venture capital in February. She wont say how much, but allows that it can cost $25 million to get a bank going. She plans to submit the companys application this spring, and expects a nine-month process of background checks, a business plan review and a penetration test of cybersecurity.

Wyoming decided to create a special type of banking institution that could specifically solve the problem of limited access to banking services for the digital asset industry, Long says. And do it in a way that is compliant with the banking system, and so it truly is a bridge between the digital asset financial system and the traditional financial system.

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Bitcoin Bros Are Directing Their Powerful Computers Toward Coronavirus COVID-19 Research – Forbes

Creating and maintaining bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies requires a huge amount of computing power, something that's been a common bitcoin criticism in recent years.

These computers, mostly used to solve the complex mathematical questions that unlock new bitcoin tokens, use a staggering amount of energy, with some estimates putting requirements as equal to a medium-sized country.

Now, amid the coronavirus crisis sweeping the world, thousands of these computers that were mining and maintaining bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have turned their considerable power toward helping to tackle coronavirus.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining farms can house many thousands of CPUs all working to solve the ... [+] mathematical equations needed to unlock new bitcoin--and now some are helping with coronavirus research.

Earlier this month, the largest U.S. creator of ethereum tokens, CoreWeave, said it has redirected the processing power of some 6,000 specialized cryptocurrency computer chips, which had been earning around $3,600 per day, toward coronavirus research.

This week, blockchain development company Bitfury has said it's put some of the computing power it had used for digital currency transaction processing to help fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Elsewhere, decentralized computing network golem and blockchain platform tezos have also donated some of their resources toward coronavirus research.

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency companies have signed up to the Washington University Folding at Home project, created by a consortium of scientific research labs across North America, Europe and Asia to form a distributed supercomputer for disease research and pharmaceutical development.

"To help tackle coronavirus, we want to understand how these viral proteins work and how we can design therapeutics to stop them," the Folding at Home project explained.

"Our specialty is in using computer simulations to understand proteins moving parts. Watching how the atoms in a protein move relative to one another is important because it captures valuable information that is inaccessible by any other means."

The Folding at Home project recently simulated a protein from the Ebola virus and claims to have helped scientists in developing effective drugs.

The results from Folding at Home computations are publicly available, allowing any organization working on a vaccine, treatment or other research to use it in their work at no cost.

The bitcoin price was hard hit by the coronavirus-induced market crash last month.

Bitfury, based in the Netherlands, has said some of its high-powered GPU-enabled computing nodes have been running COVID-19 calculations since March 20.

"To date these nodes have completed more than 1,300 calculations for the Folding at Home endeavor to analyze the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), and the company plans to scale-up its contribution significantly over time," Bitfury said in a statement.

"Our contribution of highly efficient computing power pales next to the selflessness and sacrifice of our medical caregivers and essential staff on the front lines of this virus, but I am confident that this project from Folding at Home, alongside the work of many researchers and doctors, will significantly advance our understanding and treatment of this disease," said Valery Vavilov, Bitfury chief executive.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world has exploded in recent weeks, hitting 860,000 and causing some 42,000 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Meanwhile, a United Nations report estimates that around 25 million jobs could be lost around the world as the result of the coronavirus outbreak and the global shutdown put in place to stem its spread.

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Bitcoin Bros Are Directing Their Powerful Computers Toward Coronavirus COVID-19 Research - Forbes

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Massive $633 Million Bitcoin (BTC) Transaction Triggers Crypto Whale Alert – The Daily Hodl

A massive move of more than half a billion dollars in Bitcoin (BTC) is causing a stir among cryptocurrency traders.

The transaction was reported by the crypto tracker Whale Alert, triggering speculation about the identity of the crypto holders and why theyre moving the funds.

After tracing the transaction, Whale Alert indicates that the movement is connected an internal transfer from the crypto custody giant Xapo.

Xapo is known for its off-the-grid secret bunkers that store millions in Bitcoin across five continents, including in the Swiss Alps, on behalf of its clients. A report from Bloomberg found that it takes about two days for clients to retrieve their ultra secure BTC in a process that includes fingerprint scanning and devices that measure ones pulse to ensure amputated hands arent used to unlock assets.

In addition to the transfer from Xapo, five whales moved a total of 5,687 BTC worth $35.6 million in the last 24 hours. Three of those transfers involved BTC moving from unknown wallets to exchanges, while the remaining two transfers did the opposite, moving Bitcoin from exchanges to wallets of unknown origin.

Crypto traders are also following huge movements of cryptocurrency from global payments startup Ripple.

After unlocking one billion XRP from escrow, the company has now transferred the funds to three separate wallets.

The move is part of Ripples method of managing its XRP holdings.

As the owner of more than half of the total supply of XRP, Ripple locked up 55 billion XRP in 2017, creating a schedule that releases one billion XRP per month, making the funds available to sell to third parties directly as well as on crypto exchanges.

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Can Bitcoin Survive the Climate Change Revolution? – CoinDesk

Coronavirus might be the biggest story of the decade, but climate change will be the grand narrative of the century.

As energy of any kind becomes of premium value to the planet, and the worlds transport systems come onto the electric grid, how will notoriously energy-hungry processes like bitcoin fare?

In financial services, environmental, social and governance (ESG) is becoming the new buzzword among impact-minded corporations. An example of this was the latest letter from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink promising a fundamental reshaping of finance.

Bitcoin, although its also about fundamentally reshaping finance, has earned a bad reputation when it comes to energy use, thanks to the vast number of specially-designed computers needed to carry out its mining process.

How you choose to interpret bitcoins energy consumption depends on your perspective. Bitcoin supporters might point out that PlayStation, for instance, uses up about as much power as the Bitcoin network, according to research by Bitwise Asset Management. The reinvention of money, theyll add, is a much loftier goal than playing FIFA 20.

On the other hand, the Greta Thunberg generation may question what appears to be just another financial trading instrument but one that consumes as much electricity as Chile, a country with 18 million people.

The recent meltdown in markets caused by coronavirus raises other questions about bitcoins place in the world. Bitcoin, sometimes described as digital gold, was always seen as a safe haven for investors, un-correlated as it was with the rest of the financial system. But the coronavirus shock saw bitcoin fall even more precipitously than the stock market. Its recent ebbs and flows have mirrored that of the S&P 500.

As economist and author Frances Coppola puts it: If bitcoin can no longer be used as digital gold, what can it be used for?

Wall Streets cold feet

Some would argue the gradual encroachment of institutional money into bitcoin as a high-yielding alternative asset class comes with its own cost: a newfound correlation with the rest of the financial system.

Indeed, there has been an assumption from some quarters of the crypto world that its only a matter of time until swathes of institutional investment will flow into bitcoin. This will follow as the network becomes more regulated, they say, and things like dedicated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) emerge.

But with a firm focus on ESG among institutional investors of any real size, that may not happen after all, at least not at anything like the scale once predicted.

I think bitcoiners are very much hoping in the future that institutional investors will put their money in bitcoin, said Alex de Vries, blockchain specialist at PwC. But it's very unlikely that shareholders of those institutions will allow companies to invest in high-carbon assets.

Its not easy to take the temperature of large-scale buyside when it comes to crypto. When CoinDesk asked some of the largest investment firms if ESG concerns might be a factor regarding bitcoin as a hedge, most of them declined to comment.

It was sort of this niche hippie topic for bleeding-heart liberals and there were certain connotations with ESG that it was largely bullshit.

However, one of the largest retirement funds in the U.S., which asked not to be named, said simply: Things like bitcoin dont fit into our portfolio.

Within the confines of crypto, the question of ESG in relation to bitcoin does occasionally come up but it's relatively rare, said Matt Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise Asset Management.

I would say it comes up in one out of every 20 serious conversations, he said.

However, Hougan conceded ESG is certainly the topic du jour, and he expects to hear it mentioned more often.

I fully agree that ESG has entered a sort of new era in 2020. It's the combination of Larry Fink's letter, of the Australia wildfires, the California wildfires, Greta's popularity. I do think its top of mind. I've overheard ESG investing conversations in coffee shops here in the U.S., which I've never done in the past, Hougan said.

That said, its probably fair to say the bitcoin community, for the most part, is not too concerned about environmental issues.

For example, Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer of crypto-focused investment firm CoinShares, pointed out that ESG and environmental sustainability tends to come in cycles; it was a big topic 10 years ago, then it died down and now it's big again, she said.

Historically, ESG had sort of been a backwater of investing, where you got sent if you weren't fit for front office, said Demirors. It was sort of this niche hippie topic for bleeding-heart liberals and there were certain connotations with ESG that it was largely bullshit.

ESG community

ESG warriors perhaps share some similarities with the crypto community: Both are growing and passionate movements, and both could be viewed as extremists by the mainstream financial services sector.

And though some ESG fans see the value in blockchain for being able to track global supply chains, the goodwill does not extend to bitcoin itself.

Lauren Compere, director of shareowner engagement at Boston Common Management, a majority-employee-owned and woman-led investment firm with over $20 billion in assets under management, said millennials and post-millennials want to track how a particular T-shirt is made, for example, or check its provenance using a slavery app.

I think from an ESG perspective, they are also looking at, How does something like bitcoin fit into the ecosystem? said Compere. What kind of impact does it have on things like climate? Is it a contributor? Is it an enabler?

Brett Wayman, VP of impact investing at Envestnet, a provider of software to financial advisors, said its a question of deciding if the benefit of cryptocurrency as a separate asset class outweighs the negatives of the environmental impacts of Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanisms.

I think the climate problem will force bitcoin to self-regulate or reconfigure itself.

Right now I think the environmental impact is pretty extensive. I do think that bitcoin is an interesting investment. But from an energy usage standpoint, my understanding is that it will only become more and more energy-intensive to mine some of these currencies, said Wayman.

(That likely doesnt hold for cryptocurrencies based on the less-mining-intensive Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which includes the forthcoming overhaul of Ethereum, the second-largest crypto by market cap.)

Martin Vezer, manager of thematic research at Sustainalytics, which is 40 percent owned by Morningstar, said there are clear environmental concerns when a coin relies on mining, which can be quite energy- and carbon-intensive depending on where the electricity is coming from.

A fundamental question for investors to consider is whether a cryptocurrency is a commodity that actually adds value. In the early trends that we see, a lot of people appear to be buying and selling cryptocurrency as a short-term bet rather than a long-term investment. Sure, this gamble has paid off for some, but others have lost money, said Vezer.

Responsible investors typically look for long-term opportunities with a clear value proposition rather than a short-term betting opportunity, Vezer added. They weigh the environmental and social risks associated with an asset before adding it to their portfolio, he said.

Renewable reputation?

While much of the data is based on estimates, its thought that close to 75 percent of bitcoin mining is fuelled by renewable energy.

Bitcoin miners are nomadic and will migrate to the cheapest sources of energy. Over half of all bitcoin mining takes place in Chinas Sichuan province, which has excessive hydropower capacity.

The portability of bitcoin mining rigs allow for interesting innovations such as consuming wasted energy from oil wells. In such cases, trapped gas is vented into the atmosphere or burnt off by flare towers because its not deemed worthwhile to capture and transport.

Steve Barbour, the founder of Upstream Data, which operates bitcoin mines on oil fields in Canada, has even described bitcoin mining as a conservation machine. The vented gas fuels a generator that the mining computers are plugged into. Its a relatively low capital expenditure for an oil company, said Barbour, especially when presented with the prospect of future BTC returns.

Upstream Data is planning bitcoin mining trials with Canadian Natural Resources, a Toronto Stock Exchange-listed oil and gas producer that reported over $21 billion in revenue last year, Barbour told CoinDesk.

What we are doing with bitcoin mining reduces venting of methane into the atmosphere, he said. Its an example of how an ESG narrative around bitcoin is at least incomplete.

However, Martin Wainstein of the Yale Open Climate project, an advocate of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology generally, said he remains skeptical of such green endeavors.

Even though they have gotten very creative to be energy efficient at sources where you have waste, bitcoin is out of control and doesn't work the way it was designed for, said Wainstein. I think the climate problem will force bitcoin to self-regulate or reconfigure itself.

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Cryptocurrencies price prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum & Litecoin – American Wrap – 01 April – FXStreet

Bitcoin is looking bearish on Wednesday as the pricemoved 3% lower after rejecting higher levels. The market bounced off the blue trendline and pushed through the 55 and 200 hourly moving averages. This all points to a very bearish picture on the intraday timeframes. The RSI has also dipped under the 50 mid-line to compound the misery but is in an oversold zone so there could be a short term bounce.

Ethereum price is trading in the red by 1.30% in the session on Wednesday.

ETH/USD trading conditions are very much narrow, as the price consolidates, risks remain tilted to the downside.

There is a lack of commitment being observed, given soft investor sentiment.

Litecoin price is trading in negative territory by -3.10 % in the session on Wednesday.

LTC/USD moving in narrowing nature, upside limited to $40, support noted at $37.

A flag structure remains present via the daily chart view, risk of a breakout to the downside.

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Bitcoin Follows Stock Markets Higher; How Long Will They Move in Lockstep? – CoinDesk

After the weekend slump, many cryptocurrencies made strong gains Monday, as did major stock indexes, while the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the global economy.

Traders werent confident the green flashing across all markets would last, however.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 8 percent and ether (ETH) gained 6 percent. Other notable performers include bitcoin SV up 11 percent, bitcoin cash (BCH) in the green 8 percent and IOTA (IOTA) gaining 8 percent. These 24-hour price changes are as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET).

Japans Nikkei 225 Index saw heavy selling during the open hour of trading but climbed back and ended the session down down a modest 1.5 percent. This followed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcing Friday that Japan would introduce a fiscal stimulus larger than the 56.8 trillion yen ($526 billion) injection the country required in the 2008 crisis.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index closed up 1.7 percent, while the U.S. S&P 500 rose 3.3 percent. Tuesday will close out the first quarter of 2020, so traders are unsure whether the traditional markets will continue to make gains because the end of an accounting period is typically a time to rebalance portfolios.

I think we see equities much lower so it will be interesting to see if bitcoin follows, said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets at Swissquote Bank.

Still largely correlated

Bitcoin came under selling pressure late last week, not long after the U.S. markets closed at 20:00 UTC Friday. It dropped from $6,672 at 23:00 UTC that day to as low at $5,853 1:00 UTC Monday on exchanges like Coinbase.

However, shortly after the Nikkei slid and rebounded, bitcoin began climbing, entering $6,300 territory by 12:00 UTC.

"Bitcoin is still largely correlated with financial markets overall it seems, said Jack Tan, founding partner of Taiwan-based crypto trading firm Kronos Research. And from what I can tell, we are still headed lower in stocks so bitcoin will presumably follow. Also since bitcoin is priced mostly in USD, I suspect the dollar rally is also adding some pressure."

Low expectations for equities come from a number of factors, traders say. Energy consumption, for example, is down, as a glut of oil is causing storage problems with supply far outpacing demand. Oil prices dipped below $20 Monday, a level not seen since 2002.

In the short term, we can expect increased inventory and supply while decreased demand will drive the price even lower, Nemo Qin, an analyst for multi-asset investment platform eToro, said regarding oil.

As for precious metals, since March 27, gold prices have been in a consolidation pattern, a behavior cryptocurrencies exhibited late last week after hours, once the traditional markets closed.

It appears bitcoin is following traditional markets for the time being, despite advocates long-running argument that it is a non-correlated asset that should not move in lockstep with the pack. But traders remain on alert for news of record-breaking stimulus policies around the world that could stoke inflation, which theoretically should make bitcoin, with its predictable supply schedule, more attractive.

Japans stimulus plan, for example, has market participants thinking it might result in more crypto volume and subsequent price increases.

Bitcoin rallied last week on inflationary fears in the U.S. It is the first time this year that it behaved as promised, said Max Boonen, CEO of B2C2, a London-based over-the-counter (OTC) market maker.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Bitcoins on the Move Is BTC Price Inversely Correlated to Mempool Size? – Cointelegraph

After making a strong recovery from $3,775 to $6,450, Bitcoins (BTC) price has traded in a tight range which has seen the price struggle to push above resistance at $6,400 and $6,850. Despite the current pullback, technical indicators like the Stock-to-Flow model and the networks consistent growth in hash rate show that investors have regained a small amount of confidence.

Another factor worth considering is Bitcoins mempool size as it also can provide some insight into how buyers and sellers are reacting during these uncertain times.

Cryptocurrency market weekly overview. Source: Coin360

The mempool is where all the unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions wait until all confirmations are released to conclude each transaction. The higher the mempool size, the longer it takes for transactions to be confirmed since more blocks have to be confirmed (more power input).

If a jam occurs in the memory pool due to an abnormal size of transaction waiting to be confirmed, the higher the probability to incur in a higher transaction fee to expedite it promptly.

Bitcoins mempool size reached a record-high value at over 130MB/block during January 2018, days after Bitcoin price slightly crossed its all-time high at $20,000.

Bitcoin Mempool size (in MB/Block) since June 2016-March 2020. Source: Blockchain.com

This could suggest a relationship between the number of transactions waiting to be confirmed and Bitcoin's price. If that is the case, the relationships would be inverse in times of corrections such as the one investors are facing now.

Considering a period from Feb. 19 until March 13, when Bitcoin lost 60%, we find that the correlation between the Bitcoin mempool size and its price is negative at -41.2%. This is a very high relationship considering that this correlation for the entire 2020 period available is almost non-significant at 2.34%.

A correlation of 100% means that the Bitcoin price and the mempool size move completely in the same direction, while -100% correlation means they are inversely related. A correlation of 0% means that the variables are not related in any way.

In correction periods during 2016, where Bitcoin lost more than 20% in price, we find the same negative relationship between the mempool size and Bitcoin price, even though both have a high difference in values one period is very inversely correlated (-83.1%) and the other period very slightly negative (-4.6%).

In the six periods where a correction of up to a 20% decrease in price during 2017 and 2018, we find an inconclusive relationship across the correlations and this makes it impossible to reach a solid conclusion.

Correlation between Bitcoin price and its mempool size for different correction periods during 2017

However, if we look closely at the two periods that occurred during the second half of 2017 when Bitcoin ended up reaching its record price, both periods show an inverse relationship between the mempool size and Bitcoin price.

Between Nov. 8 and Nov. 12, this relationship was very negative (-85.9%), while between Dec. 17 and Dec. 25, the correlation is very small (-5.6%).

Correlation between Bitcoin price and its mempool size during 2018 correction periods

During 2019, four out of the five correction periods identified showed a positive correlation between the Bitcoin mempool size and its price, except for the last periods, which showed a slight negative correlation.

Correlation between Bitcoin price and its mempool size during 2019

When considering the relationship during each year instead of only analyzing the corrective periods, we find a clear trend and a positive correlation between the mempool size and Bitcoins price.

Moreover, a high correlation is seen in 2017 (80.8%) and 2018 (72.2%), despite not being able to draw a conclusive trend when analyzing the correction periods within those years. The positive trend, although small in magnitude, is also seen between both variables in 2016 (26.3%) and 2019 (9.5%). While in 2020, the relationship is practically non-existent (2.34%).

Last week, there has been an increase in the mempool size even as Bitcoins price is going down. Looking forward, we may see the continuation of this inverse relationship contributes to the uncertainty of Bitcoins price in the short-term.

As Cointelegraph markets analyst filbfilb recently pointed out:

I just cant be long while I know there is so much BTC in transit.

The amount of Bitcoin possibly being moved into and out of exchanges in the last weeks raises further doubts about the inverse relationship between the mempool and Bitcoin price.

Data for the mempool size drawn from Blockchain.com and prices from coinmarketcap.com. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Here’s how much bitcoin beat the Dow and S&P 500 in the first quarter – CNBC

Bitcoin has fallen less than major U.S. equity indices in the first quarter but still hasn't proven it can act as a "safe haven" in times of market turmoil.

The cryptocurrency fell over 10% in the first three months of the year.

However, the Dow secured its worst first-quarter performance ever, losing more than 23% of its value in the first quarter of 2020. The S&P 500 fell 20% in the first three months of the year, its worst first quarter ever and its biggest quarterly loss since 2008. The Nasdaq fell more than 14% in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, gold rose about 4% in the first quarter.

Financial markets have had a volatile three months as the coronavirus outbreak turned into a pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of people have been infected around the world, leading to businesses shutting down, major travel restrictions and people staying at home.

The economic impact is expected to be severe and that has led to a huge sell-off in stocks despite monetary policy action from central banks and fiscal stimulus from governments around the world.

Cryptocurrencies saw huge volatility in the first quarter. On March 8, the whole market sold off following aplunge in oil prices. Then on March 12, cryptocurrencies saw$93.5 billion wiped off their value in 24 hours and a48% crash in the price of bitcoin.

Over the past few years, bitcoin has beenlikened to "digital gold"and has been seen by some as a safe haven asset to invest in when markets are under pressure. But it hasn't necessarily played out that way even though it has fallen less than major stock indexes.

Those inside the cryptocurrency industry, however, feel that this could be starting to shift.

"Bitcoin is still a relatively smaller asset class that isincreasinglyuncorrelatedto traditional asset classes and this is in the process of being established as we speak. This is why I believe the current market environment is a big test for Bitcoin and given how young the asset class is, it has actually held up quite well," Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, told CNBC.

He said that while gold is "much more established as as safe haven asset," bitcoin is "arguably a second choice at this point" given its total user base is smaller but growing.

"Hence, we're seeing bitcoin lag gold a bit in terms of performance, but one can argue that as we move along in the next few months and years, bitcoin starts to take larger share away from gold and we will see an eventual 'flippening' happen, where bitcoin is at, or larger than, the market cap of gold and market movements in bitcoin start to reflect the overall market more accurately," Ayyar said.

CNBC'sMaggie Fitzgerald contributed to this report.

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Here's how much bitcoin beat the Dow and S&P 500 in the first quarter - CNBC

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Bitcoin Holding Crucial Support: Heres What Could Propel it to $7K – newsBTC

Bitcoin corrected lower from the $6,600 resistance area against the US Dollar. BTC price is currently holding the key $6,250 support and it could start a fresh increase in the near term.

Yesterday, we discussed the chances of a short term correction in bitcoin from the $6,636 high against the US Dollar. BTC price did correct lower and traded below the $6,500 support area.

The bears were able to push the price below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $5,850 swing low to $6,636 high. Besides, there was a break below the $6,400 level, but the price remained well bid above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It seems like the bulls protected the 100 hourly SMA and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $5,850 swing low to $6,636 high.

The price is currently rising and trading above $6,300. There is likely a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near $6,420 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If bitcoin surpasses the flag resistance and gains pace above the $6,450 level, there are high chances of a strong increase.

Bitcoin Price

The next key resistance is near the $6,600 level, above which the price is likely to gain bullish momentum above $6,640. In the mentioned bullish case, the bulls are likely to aim a test of the $7,000 resistance.

If bitcoin fails to clear the flag resistance and $6,450, it could struggle to stay above the 100 hourly SMA. A bearish break below the 100 hourly SMA and the $6,250 support may perhaps extend losses.

The next support is near the $6,000 level, below which the bears are likely to aim a retest of the $5,850 support area in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is currently losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently struggling to move back above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels $6,250 followed by $6,000.

Major Resistance Levels $6,450, $6,500 and $6,600.

Take advantage of the trading opportunities with Plus500

Risk disclaimer: 76.4% of retail CFD accounts lose money.

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Bitcoin Holding Crucial Support: Heres What Could Propel it to $7K - newsBTC

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Is Now the Time to Invest in Bitcoin? – Cointelegraph

With global markets tumbling out of control, will Bitcoin finally fulfill its role as a hedge asset? Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?

CEO and co-founder of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan and trader Michal van de Poppe discuss how the Feds strategy of QE to Infinity will help Bitcoin finally become a safe haven asset. But is now the time to buy or should you wait for further drops? Watch the full video to find out!

In an article for Cointelegraph, Michal identified $6,800-6,900 as the key level to watch. Unless Bitcoin is able to break through that level, hes not very optimistic about upward movements:

Until we don't do that, I expect further downside to comments, just pure technical levels.

Mati is also watching those levels, but he is more focused on the long term than the short term:

So first of all, I only have bullish scenarios for Bitcoin. Yes, I would say 6,800 is a key level that has played out beforeI would say overall, I mean, we're looking at a very wide range for Bitcoin, something between $3,100 and $20,000.

The Fed was recently given the greenlight to print as much money as needed to stabilize the US economy. Michal explained how this could lead to two scenarios which would both benefit Bitcoin:

So what you want to see at some point is that investors run out of the dollar given the inflation or deflation, and start to seek for other assets which are commodities like gold, silver, platinum and Bitcoin. The other scenario is that the crisis just continues to fall down until 2021 or 2022 and the equity markets bottom out, after which the other commodity markets and Bitcoin start to outperform the equity markets in the first case, which we have seen in '09 to 2011 with gold. So in the end, quantitative easing: I expect that to be bullish for Bitcoin.

Mati continued Michals comparison of Bitcoin to gold in the post-2008 era:

If you look at that and the aftermath to the financial crisis, which was, really as Michal said, 2009, 2011, 2012. That's when gold really took the center stage It shot up $2,000 per ounce by 2011, 2012.

And I think that gold, again, is already showing us incredible resilience since the beginning of the year. And I say if it went up or down during the crisis because it's kind of been fluctuating, but it certainly hasn't taken a hit like the stocks have, it's more or less held its value over that time. And I believe that Bitcoin will also be seen as this type of asset.

But the question remains: is now the time to invest or are there more downturns to be expected? Watch the full video to make sure you dont miss Mati and Michals suggestions!

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Is Now the Time to Invest in Bitcoin? - Cointelegraph

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