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Many Bitcoiners believe that 'unlimited money printing' will cause hyperinflation and a major BTC price spike this year but experts in the U.S. and Australia predict deflation is more likely to be on the cards.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, ING Bank, The New York Times and UBS are just a handful of organisations who think deflation could be a consequence of falling oil prices and a glut of products due to the plunge in demand caused by lockdowns

That's in stark contrast to the Money printer goes brrrr crowd who believe that unlimited quantitative easing this year will inevitably lead to hyperinflation and see a surge in demand for Bitcoin with its fixed supply of just 21 million coins.

A new survey by Paxful of 500 crypto users found that more than half of Bitcoin holders in the U.S. see the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation.

Crypto analyst Plan B argues that money printing benefits Bitcoin, and his stock-to-flow price model is predicated on the block reward halving in May reducing the rate of Bitcoin's supply and pushing up the price. Bitcoin's annual inflation rate after the halving will be 1.8% while gold will be at 2.5%.

Its interesting to note that inflation in the US actually fell 0.4% in March to 1.5% and many believe that inflation will only go down from here. New York Times Senior Economics Correspondent Neil Irwin wrote this week the negative oil price was a sign the world is in a deflationary moment".

The Covid-19 crisis is an extraordinary deflationary shock to the economy, causing the idling of a vast share of the worlds productive resources, he wrote.

In the case of oil, thats because demand has fallen off a cliff, leading to a glut of product and pushing prices negative. He argues that similar supply and demand effects will be seen across the economy. Demand has slumped everywhere from restaurants to airlines, sports arenas are empty, and 22 million workers have filed for unemployment.

"All of that points to a deflationary collapse a glut of supply of goods and services, and consequently falling prices that surpasses anything seen in most peoples lifetimes.

ING Bank's Chief International Economist James Knightley has made a similar point and argues that the collapse in energy prices and surging unemployment will soon see a negative headline CPI (Consumer Price Index).

In his article "US: Deflation is on its Way" he pointed out that expectations that quantitative easing (QE) would lead to inflation hadnt been borne out after the Feds QE1, QE2 and QE3 programmes" following the Global Financial Crisis. He suggested the dollars from the money printer would probably go into propping up financial assets, rather than into the pockets of consumers.

Knightley cited the minutes of the Fed Reserve's March meeting that suggest they believe that even with money printing and the economy reopened, "inflation was projected to weaken".

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe said in a speech this weekthe country faced the biggest hit since the Great Depression and that deflation was a likely outcome in the June quarter.

The large fall in oil prices, combined with the introduction of free childcare and the deferral or reduction in some price increases means that it is quite likely that year-ended headline inflation will turn negative in June. If so, this would be the first time since the early 1960s that the price level has fallen over a full year.

The RBA has fired up the money printer for the first time in its history, but told national broadcaster the ABC recently the incredibly low inflation rate in the decade after the GFC was a good indication inflation was an unlikely outcome.

Hes backed up by UBS chief economist George Tharenou who said the oil price, falling rents and desperate discounting by retailers due to low consumer demand will see the Consumer Price Index in Australia fall by 1.5% over the next three months.

Plan B may well be right that Bitcoin is a good hedge against inflation. After all, Bitcoin is already being used for that purpose in countries such as Venezuela and Zimbabwe that are experiencing hyperinflation. Arcane Research has also published research suggesting demand on LocalBitcoins in Argentina has just hit record highs, partly due to increasing inflation. And its hard to argue with those who point out the purchasing power of $1 in USD has dropped around 99% over the past century.

But while Bitcoin may be a good hedge against inflation, if the experts are to be believed, theres not a lot of inflation thats likely to occur in the near future at least.

More:
Experts Predict Deflation: There Goes Bitcoin Narrative #697 - Cointelegraph

At last, bitcoin was able to break above the price ceiling that was keeping it from pursuing a more significant bull run.

The benchmark cryptocurrency jumped above $7,500 this Thursday in a surprising buying action that pushed the prices up by $704 in just three hours. It topped at $7,775 on Coinbase before correcting lower during the early Asian trading session Friday.

BTCUSD maintains gains above red bar resistance | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

The crypto has been able to navigate through the heavy resistance labeled on the chart seen above. Nevertheless, the interim price rally paused for a breather, indicating that traders are waiting for a bullish continuationbefore they buy bitcoin at local tops. It may lead to a sharp pullback to the downside.

As bitcoin aims to confirm an extended bull run, the cryptocurrency also has painted a historically accurate and super predictive Golden Cross.

The bullish indicator is formed when an assets short-term moving average closes above its long-term moving average. Bitcoin traders typically watch 50-daily and 200-daily MA curves to confirm a Golden Cross or its opposite, the bearish Death Cross. But those metrics have so far proven to be lagging.

In retrospect, the daily bitcoin chart forms a Golden Cross almost a month after the prices go up. Similarly, the cryptocurrency falls way before it paints a Death Cross pattern. That keeps traders from locating interim profitable opportunities.

But replacing 200-daily simple moving average with a 20-daily exponential moving average improves the predictive quality, as shown in the chart below via red circles.

BTCUSD 20-50 MA Golden and Death Crosses | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

The 20-50 MA combo instantly predicts bitcoins next potential moves. As of Friday, the 20-daily EMA is above the 50-daily SMA, hinting that the BTCUSD exchange rate is looking to head higher. A similar formation earlier this year had pushed the pair up by more than 40 percent.

So, in the current scenario, the bitcoin price can rise to as far as $10,000.

On the flip side, bitcoin is still trending higher inside a Rising Wedge pattern, as confirmed by two converging trendlines. The cryptocurrency could continue rising until it reaches the shapes apex. After that, it could fall by as much as the height of the Wedge, leading it below the $5,000 level.

Photo by Samuel McGarrigle on Unsplash

Link:
Bitcoin Forms Super Predictive Golden Cross as Price Hits $7.5K - Bitcoinist

Bitcoin is trading almost twice its current rate in an economically-hit Lebanon.

Peer-to-peer bitcoin marketplace LocalBitcoins.com shows people selling the cryptocurrency for as high as22,678,227.03 LBP per token, which roughly equals $15,000. Meanwhile, people who are looking to liquidate bitcoin for local currency are demanding as much as $11,000 per token.

BTCUSD in Lebanon P2P markets jumps above $15,000 | Source: LocalBitcoins, Google

Exchange rates coming out of Lebonan crypto marketplaces are strikingly higher than their global counterparts. Data aggregator Messari shows the bitcoin price a little above $7,500 almost half than what is the Lebanese traders are asking.

Bitcoin hits its premium price levels in Lebanon as the country grapples with its most severe economic crisis in decades. The Lebanese Pound has crashed by almost 50 percent from its dollar-pegged value since October 2019, sparkinginflation, fueling social unrest, and locking Lebanese people out of their US dollar-enabled bank savings.

The central bank issued an order that allowed dollar account holders to withdraw money in local currency but before April 23. The ruling was meant to ease dollar demand but left people in a more panicked state. The country has one of the largest diasporas that send and receive funds in foreign currency.

Bitcoin peaked in Lebanon amidst the said chaos, validating the Al Jazeera coveragefrom late February that showed Lebanese opting for cryptocurrencies as a measure to protect themselves from inflation.

If you want to go around the banking system, bitcoin is a solution, a local crypto trader had told the news service.

The cryptocurrency operates outside the control of centralized authorities. A distributed group of miners offer their computing power to verify, validate, and add transactions to its open ledger called the blockchain. No single entity takes control over the Bitcoin network, making it an independent financial system.

Lebanons central bank discourages people from trading bitcoin, a reason why traders opt for peer-to-peer alternatives to buy and sell the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoins premium rates in Lebanon proves that locally there is more demand for the cryptocurrency than the available supply. People are purchasing it en masse to move out of their struggling fiat system, creating a parallel economy outside the scope of their government and central banks.

All and all, bitcoin has once again shown its real potential in a struggling national economy. Moreover, with the global one going into chaos as well, the cryptocurrency could emerge as a financial savior for an average saver.

Photo by Andr Franois McKenzie on Unsplash

Continued here:
Bitcoin Trades at $15k in Lebanon Amidst Economic Turmoil, Showing Its Real Potential - newsBTC

Recently, altcoins have been showing strength as Bitcoin (BTC) has just broken a key resistance level. Notably, ChainLink (LINK) and Tezos (XTZ) have been moving up more than 150% in the past month.

However, in the recent week, Stellar Lumens (XLM) have been surging upwards, while XRP price is also starting to look stronger on the charts. Can we expect substantial altcoin movements in the coming weeks? Lets take a look at the charts.

Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360

XRP USDT 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 12-hour chart is showing a promising support/resistance flip of the $0.1775 area. The crash on Black Thursday was also devastating for holders of XRP as the price dropped below the $0.12 level for a few hours.

However, since then, the price of XRP has been rallying upwards through substantial support/resistance flips. The recent movements are showing that the crucial area of $0.1775 is holding as support and setting up for more upside for XRP.

The main resistance level to break for the XRP price would be the red zone between $0.2025-0.2125. A break of this level would likely push the price towards $0.2475 and possibly higher at $0.2775.

XRP USD 2-day chart. Source: TradingView

The 2-day chart is showing a significant support level of around $0.145, which had to hold to sustain the positive momentum. However, the chart is also showing that the trend is still substantially downwards based given the lower lows and lower highs.

However, by holding the support level at $0.145, a possible test of the range high can occur, which is found at the $0.328-0.33 area.

Remarkably, in the past cycle of 2015-2017, a similar move occurred where XRP price made a full retrace to the support levels before a massive surge. This support area held, after which accumulation started, resulting in a massive breakout to $3 in January 2018.

The current price action is also starting to look similar, though it took longer to retrace. But thats normal as markets mature and, therefore, need more time to bottom out and start a new cycle.

A test of the $0.33 area would confirm an accumulation and sideways range as the signs are indeed starting to improve.

XRP BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart of XRP lost an essential level earlier at 0.00002500-0.00002525 satoshis. Within a few days, the price of XRP reclaimed the level and is currently testing it as support.

Confirming this level as support (heavily depending on any substantial volatile movements of Bitcoin (BTC) suggests that further upwards momentum can be expected for XRP price. At the same time, the price of XRP needs to make a higher high to sustain momentum.

For that, support at 0.00002500-0.00002525 satoshis needs to hold for support, after which the resistance levels will be tested. The first resistance levels to watch for are 0.00002890-0.00002925 satoshis and 0.00003300-0.00003350 satoshis.

The main bullish signal would be a clear breakout of this range above 0.00003800 satoshis, but that is still far away from the current price of XRP.

XLM BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The Stellar Lumens (XLM) chart is showing a clear range between 0.00000560-0.00000590 satoshis and 0.00000840-0.00000950 satoshis. This range has been providing resistance and support for ten months already when the price moved into these zones in July 2019.

However, recently, XLM has been showing strength as the price of XLM surged 28% in the past four days. Not only that, but the price of XLM is also attempting to break the range resistance, which is a crucial signal for bull/bear momentum similar to XRP.

An apparent breakthrough of the 0.00000850-0.00000935 satoshis level would create further upwards momentum, targeting the next resistance zone at 0.00001400 satoshis. Aside from that, breaking the 0.00000835 satoshis level would result in the first higher high in more than eighteen months.

But if the price of XLM cant break through the resistance in one go, the retests will be crucial to see whether buyers are stepping in.

XLM BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The chart is providing clear levels to watch if the price of XLM cant break through the resistance area upon the first attempt, which seems likely.

As theres been such a massive pump, support levels can be found substantially lower in the chart. The primary levels to watch for support are 0.00000718-0.00000722 satoshis and 0.00000680-0.00000685 satoshis.

If either of these levels provides support, then buyers will likely step in. Such a move should warrant further upwards momentum.

XLM USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the USDT chart for Stellar Lumens is showing a clear breakout of the resistance level at $0.054. This breakout led to a significant surge in price as the price of XLM rallied towards $0.065.

This move grants a 155% surge since the low of March 12, also known as Black Thursday. However, is the rally over for now? No, because after such a breakout and surge, the dips will likely be bought up given the current uptrend.

An apparent retest of the previous resistance level at $0.054 would provide the most likely entry for traders to step in. Resistance levels are found significantly higher, with the first level lying at $0.074 and the second one at $0.08.

However, if this push fails to hold the $0.054 level for support, further tests to the downside are likely to occur. The primary level to watch for will then be the $0.04-0.043 zone.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Go here to see the original:
XRP Price May Be Headed for $0.30 With Bitcoin Making Higher Highs - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin is still looking positive on Friday despite the bulls not pushing above the high seen yesterday. The price looks like its heading toward some more serious resistance zones including the 200 daily simple moving average, which incidentally is placed close to the 8K psychological level.

Looking at some of the other technical levels now, the relative strength index indicator is also trading above the 50 mid-line positive territory. There is also space for the indicator to move higher as it has not reached the overbought zone yet. The volume is still looking a little bit light so if there is to be a break higher it would be good to see an increase. Lastly, if there is to be a move up, the black trendline could act as a resistance zone as it has halted one other move in the past.

Continued here:
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The bitcoin bulls have 8K in thier sights - FXStreet