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S2F Hopium: Report and Twitter Critics Find Flaws With Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio – Bitcoin News

In mid-April, news.Bitcoin.com researched the popular stock-to-flow (S2F), which shows the price of a single bitcoin reaching $55K and even six figures. At the time, analysts questioned measuring bitcoins price in this manner and more recently, a few others have been criticizing the method as well. Just recently, a research report written by the author Francis Tapon finds eight flaws in bitcoins S2F model. Additionally, the well known crypto proponent Eric Wall has shown criticism toward Plan Bs S2F tweets as well.

For well over a year now, crypto advocates have discussed the popular editorial called Modeling Bitcoins Value with Scarcity written by the Twitter account Plan B. The report has caught the attention of the community for quite some time. This is because it predicts the price of a single BTC will be at least $55,000 or even $150,000 in the future. Certain types of crypto proponents love the research and stock-to-flow (S2F) models, but skeptics believe its because it may pad their bullish confirmation bias that someday BTC will be worth tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands at some point in time.

Basically, the S2F ratio divides abundance with demand by treating bitcoin like commodities such as gold or platinum. This means any analyst can use the model to evaluate the current number of bitcoins in circulation against the number of coins mined during a specific year. The last BTC halving plays a crucial role in the S2F model and if Plan Bs predictions are correct, BTC could be around $55K within the next two years.

However, not everyone believes the model and news.Bitcoin.com discussed this situation during the first week of April. But now there is more evidence that the S2F model may not be as reliable as everyone believes and two critics who have explained publicly why S2F may be bunk. Just before the halving, author Francis Tapon who wrote the books The Unseen Africa and The Hidden Europe, wrote a research report on Plan Bs model.

Tapons argument gives the reader eight reasons why the stock-to-flow model has flaws. The number one reason why S2F has problems is because it defies physics. Some critics say that the stock-to-flow model will break in 2140, which is when we cannot mine new bitcoins. At that point, the S2F model predicts that the price of bitcoin will go to infinity, Tapon explains. Although that is a problem, bitcoins stock-to-flow model is doomed to break at least 100 years before that date. Tapon also stresses in his report, that there are two things BTC would have to do:

[One] Bitcoins price would have to double every year, on average, for the next 30 years. Thats 30 doublings. No asset has ever come close to such a performance. Maybe pre-IPO Microsoft or Google or Walmart had such a rise for 10 years. But doublings become extremely difficult once an asset becomes large. [And two] we would need to invent nuclear fusion reactors and become a Type 1 Civilization. Bitcoin consumes vast amounts of energy. The higher the price goes, the more it consumes.

The seven other flaws Tapon has found include the fact that not everyone agrees on what is golds stock-to-flow ratio, golds stock-to-flow isnt fixed, golds stock-to-flow does not drive its price, some metals with extremely low stock-to-flow ratios are worth more than gold, S2F doesnt explain the prices of other cryptocurrencies, S2F assumes that bitcoins demand continues to grow exponentially, and S2F underestimates the powers that be.

It is also worth noting that Plan B has blocked Francis Tapon on Twitter as well. According to Tapon, he had sent Plan B his analysis for review and Plan B responded by saying: Blocked Reason: pure click-bait (flaw fail doomed, only old and debunked arguments). However, Tapon thinks that his arguments are valid and concluded his report by saying:

The stock-to-flow model has been a novel way of looking at bitcoins early, meteoric years. However, it will soon break because it predicts nonstop doubling year after year. Our solar system prohibits nonstop doubling. Lets be happy with a 14x return in the 2020s. That would result in a $100,000 BTC price in 2029. Still, I secretly hope Im wrong and that the stock-to-flow model is right.

In addition to Tapon, the digital currency proponent Eric Wall has been tweeting about Plan Bs models and his statements as well. On Saturday, Wall tweeted two photos of Plan B explaining what it would take to invalidate his S2F model. Despite the number of critiques published and contradictions, a slew of bitcoiners wholeheartedly believe in the S2F model.

On May 12, the secretary and vice-chairman of the Digibyte Foundation Rudy Bouwman tweeted: Preparing for the next bull run? How long can miners that havent switched off, continue mining with a loss? [The] S2F model has proven highly accurate in charting price performance. BTC to +$100K in the next 2 years? Two days prior, Quantmario published a report leveraging the S2F model called The LGS-S2F Bitcoin price formula It is safe to say that the stock-to-flow model isnt going anywhere for quite some time, but the S2F theory does have its critics.

What do you think about the stock-to-flow model and the criticism? Let us know what you think in the comments below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Twitter, Dan Popescu,

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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45 Older-Generation Bitcoin Miners Are Unprofitable After the Reward Halving – Bitcoin News

On May 11, the Bitcoin network experienced its third block reward halving, which had chopped the 12.5 BTC reward to 6.25 coins following the event. Its been close to a week later, and data stemming from mining rig profitability websites show that more than 45 older generation devices are not profitable right now at todays bitcoin exchange rates.

Recent research analysis by 8btc columnist Vincent He and the cryptocurrency mining operation F2pool, indicates that roughly 45 older mining devices have been shut down overnight since the reward halving. Statistics from the web portal Asicminervalue.com, also indicate that the estimate of 45 miners is based on the electrical price of 0.35 Chinese yuan per kilowatt-hour (kWh) or $0.049 USD.

The best mining device out of the entire slew of unprofitable mining rigs would be Bitmains Antminer S11 (20.5 TH/s), which still loses $0.09 per day at $0.049 per kWh. Other machines that are not making profits at this rate, include the Bitfury Tardis, Antminer S9 SE, GMO Miner B2, Innosilicon T2 Turbo, Bitfily Snow Panther B1, Canaan Avalonminer 921, and the popular Antminer S9. Data shows that at $0.049 per kWh, Bitfurys B8 released in 2017 with 49 TH/s, suffers a deep loss of more than $3 a day.

According to Vincent He, with the electric charge of 0.3 Chinese yuan per kWh, the electric charge of an S9 can account for 140% of the whole cost. The Chinese mining operation F2pool states:

Now, only when the price of the bitcoin rises to $15,000, can Antminer S9 cover the cost. In the past, even if there were a mining disaster and the price dump of the mining machine, someone would still buy S9. Most of the recipients are the owners of large mining farms. When the bitcoin price recovers, they can mine it by themselves or sell it to others to earn the difference.

Two days ago, the crypto community finally could observe the loss of SHA256 hashrate that followed the reward halving on May 11. On May 11, the overall BTC hashrate was 121 exahash per second (EH/s) and on May 15, 2020, the overall hashrate is around 110 EH/s. However, statistics from Fork.lols 12-hour intervals show the hashpower could be even lower than that today. These statistics would indicate that a number of operations that leverage older-generation mining rigs, likely fell off the map.

Now everyone knows that in places like China, Central Asia, and Iran, some miners can get free electricity or pay as little as $0.02 per kWh. So taking metrics from Asicminervalue.com and changing the electrical cost to $0.02 per kWh, indicates that only eight mining rigs are unprofitable at that energy rate. Mining rigs that cannot profit at 2 cents per kWh include the Whatsminer M3X, Avalonminer 741, Whatsminer M3, Antminer S7-LN, Antminer S3, Antminer V9, Antminer S7, and the Antminer S5. These eight machines are losing anywhere between $0.09 to $0.19 per day respectively at current BTC exchange rates.

Vincent Hes report also notes that the well known Antminer S9 had also dropped in value on secondary markets almost overnight. The Chinese reporter claims that $100 has been removed from most peoples listings and an older generation Antminer S9 will sell for 100 Chinese yuan (about $14). Years ago, the S9s with 13 TH/s or above accounted for more than 70% of the SHA256 hashrate. The report also highlights that a mining operation owner from the Sichuan province sold his small farm with 8,000 mining rigs and six transformers roughly seven days prior to the halving event. The 8,000 mining rig farm owner, Zhou Wenbo, told the columnist that the buyer was not willing to take his older generation Antminer S9s, Avalonminers, and Innosilicon Terminator 2 machines.

If the data is changed back to $0.05 per kWh again, theres a great number of next-generation miners that are still very profitable at todays exchange rates. This includes the Antminer S19 Pro (110 TH/s), Antminer S19 (95 TH/s), Whatsminer M30S (86 TH/s), Antminer S17 (73 TH/s), and the Whatsminer M31S (70 TH/s). All of these mining devices make between $6-15 per day at $0.05 per kWh.

What do you think about the large number of unprofitable older generation miners? Let us know in the comments below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Asicminervalue.com, Ebay, Fork.lol, Blockchain.com

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Bitcoin to Paint 2 Bullish Golden Crosses This Week, as it Eyes $10.5K Close – Bitcoinist

For Bitcoin analysts, $10,500 is a crucial resistance level.

The worlds leading cryptocurrency leaped that mark in early February for the first time since October 26, 2019. But it failed to hold the level for too long as profit-taking, followed by a surprising price crash in March 2020, engulfed the market sentiment. Nonetheless, bitcoin recovered by more than 150 percent, now inching closer to hit the YTD level all over again.

Technical signals are supporting a $10,500-breach. This week, Bitcoin could form two extremely bullish patterns: a Golden Cross on its daily chart, and a similar crossover on its daily MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator. Both indicators have historically influenced bitcoin traders to open new upside positions.

Bitcoins daily short term moving average is looking close above its long-term moving average for the first time in three months, a positive development for investors betting on the cryptocurrencys long-term upside move.

A 50-200 DMA crossover typically behaves as a lagging bullish indicator. The price starts rising long before its formation but signals an extended upside bias after it is confirmed. For instance, bitcoin had surged by circa 73 percent between bottoming out near $3,200 in December 2018 until the Golden Cross formation on April 21, 2019.

BTCUSD Golden Crosses in recent history | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

The BTC/USD exchange rate extended its rally by more than 161 percent after the 50-200 DMA crossover, as shown in the chart above. The wild upside move also took cues from a series of positive fundamentals, including the then-escalating US-China trade war, and Facebooks foray into the cryptocurrency sector with the launch of its digital token Libra.

Fundamentals played a crucial role in Bitcoins daily Golden Cross formation in February 2019, as well. The bullish indicator fizzled shortly after its occurrence, as investors panic-sold their bitcoin positions amidst the growing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global markets.

This week could mark the formation of the third Golden Cross since April 2019. Its occurrence coincides with halving, a pre-programmed event that slashed bitcoins daily supply rate by half on May 11 from 1,800 BTC to 900 BTC. Analysts claim that bitcoins newfound scarcity will make it more valuable.

The Golden Cross formation also occurs alongside the Federal Reserves open-ended stimulus programs to aid the U.S. economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. central bank and Congress together have injected more than $6 trillion worth of cash liquidity into the system, part of which has entered the bitcoin ecosystem.

The other Golden Cross formation is looking to take place in Bitcoins MACD daily chart.

Bitcoin MACD indicator crossover | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

The MACD wave (represented via blue) could cross over its signal line (the oranged plotline) this week, which typically acts as a buying signal. Meanwhile, the crossover is prompting the reddish histogram to flip above the baseline marked by ZERO. It validates a bullish momentum.

MACD works better with the Relative Strength Indicator, another momentum-gauging indicator. Readings on the RSI shows BTCUSD sitting near 63. A downside correction would appear imminent once it hits above 70. That gives bitcoin a seven-point room to grow at least.

BTCUSD RSI six points below the overbought area | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

Initially, the price could retest $10,000. It could then follow either a small pullback or an extended breakout session. That would push the RSI above 70 an overbought, bearish area. But, at the same time, bitcoins next pullback target would shift to $10,500.

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Fund manager: Past 6 weeks have been one of Bitcoins most bullish periods ever – CryptoSlate

Despite the rallies in Bitcoin and the stock market, the past three months have been the worst months for the economy since the Great Recession, maybe even earlier. Dozens of millions have become unemployed, revenues have fallen off a cliff, and there is growing social unrest as different groups address the COVID-19 pandemic in different ways.

In the face of all this, Bitwises global head of research, Matt Hougan, said in an investor letter titled May 2020: Welcome to Cryptos Fourth Era that the past six weeks have been among the most eventfuland bullishin cryptos history.

Backing the strong assertion that the past six weeks have been among Bitcoin and cryptos best, the analyst pointed to a number of trends indicating that the intrinsic values of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have risen dramatically over this time frame.

They are as follows:

With the past six weeks being some of the most bullish ever for cryptocurrency as the analyst suggested, the pressing question of what comes next has been raised.

According to Hougan, the recent trends confirm that Bitcoin and crypto are entering their Fourth Era the fourth large market cycle that will see the very fabric of the industry change dramatically.

This was echoed by Andreessen Horowitzs Chris Dixon and Eddy Lazzarin, who postulated on May 15 that the third crypto cycle came to an end in 2019 while the fourth cycle has just begun.

Hougan predicted there will be three core trends that will define this next era:

What he didnt indicate, however, is how these Fourth Era trends will translate into movements in the value of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin.

But there wasnt meant to be a price prediction as a takeaway. As Hougan indicated, the core point of his report is to illustrate that in the coming few years, cryptocurrencies will become mainstream assets and technologies:

By the end of the Fourth Era, we believe bitcoin and other cryptoassets will be treated as normal investments by most investors. They wont be owned by everyone, any more than everyone owns REITs or MLPs or tech stocks or gold, but they will be considered mainstream.

Cover Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

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The lack of women in cybersecurity leaves the online world at greater risk – The Conversation US

Women are highly underrepresented in the field of cybersecurity. In 2017, womens share in the U.S. cybersecurity field was 14%, compared to 48% in the general workforce.

The problem is more acute outside the U.S. In 2018, women accounted for 10% of the cybersecurity workforce in the Asia-Pacific region, 9% in Africa, 8% in Latin America, 7% in Europe and 5% in the Middle East.

Women are even less well represented in the upper echelons of security leadership. Only 1% of female internet security workers are in senior management positions.

I study online crime and security issues facing consumers, organizations and nations. In my research, I have found that internet security requires strategies beyond technical solutions. Womens representation is important because women tend to offer viewpoints and perspectives that are different from mens, and these underrepresented perspectives are critical in addressing cyber risks.

The low representation of women in internet security is linked to the broader problem of their low representation in the science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields. Only 30% of scientists and engineers in the U.S. are women.

The societal view is that internet security is a job that men do, though there is nothing inherent in gender that predisposes men to be more interested in or more adept at cybersecurity. In addition, the industry mistakenly gives potential employees the impression that only technical skills matter in cybersecurity, which can give women the impression that the field is overly technical or even boring.

Women are also generally not presented with opportunities in information technology fields. In a survey of women pursuing careers outside of IT fields, 69% indicated that the main reason they didnt pursue opportunities in IT was because they were unaware of them.

Organizations often fail to try to recruit women to work in cybersecurity. According to a survey conducted by IT security company Tessian, only about half of the respondents said that their organizations were doing enough to recruit women into cybersecurity roles.

Gender bias in job ads further discourages women from applying. Online cybersecurity job ads often lack gender-neutral language.

Boosting womens involvement in information security makes both security and business sense. Female leaders in this area tend to prioritize important areas that males often overlook. This is partly due to their backgrounds. Forty-four percent of women in information security fields have degrees in business and social sciences, compared to 30% of men.

Female internet security professionals put a higher priority on internal training and education in security and risk management. Women are also stronger advocates for online training, which is a flexible, low-cost way of increasing employees awareness of security issues.

Female internet security professionals are also adept at selecting partner organizations to develop secure software. Women tend to pay more attention to partner organizations qualifications and personnel, and they assess partners ability to meet contractual obligations. They also prefer partners that are willing to perform independent security tests.

Increasing womens participation in cybersecurity is a business issue as well as a gender issue. According to an Ernst & Young report, by 2028 women will control 75% of discretionary consumer spending worldwide. Security considerations like encryption, fraud detection and biometrics are becoming important in consumers buying decisions. Product designs require a trade-off between cybersecurity and usability. Female cybersecurity professionals can make better-informed decisions about such trade-offs for products that are targeted at female customers.

Attracting more women to cybersecurity requires governments, nonprofit organizations, professional and trade associations and the private sector to work together. Public-private partnership projects could help solve the problem in the long run.

One example is Israels Shift community, previously known as the CyberGirlz program, which is jointly financed by the countrys Defense Ministry, the Rashi Foundation and Start-Up Nation Central. It identifies high school girls with aptitude, desire and natural curiosity to learn IT and and helps them develop those skills.

The girls participate in hackathons and training programs, and get advice, guidance and support from female mentors. Some of the mentors are from elite technology units of the countrys military. The participants learn hacking skills, network analysis and the Python programming language. They also practice simulating cyber-attacks to find potential vulnerabilities. By 2018, about 2,000 girls participated in the CyberGirlz Club and the CyberGirlz Community.

In 2017, cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks teamed up with the Girl Scouts of the USA to develop cybersecurity badges. The goal is to foster cybersecurity knowledge and develop interest in the profession. The curriculum includes the basics of computer networks, cyberattacks and online safety.

Professional associations can also foster interest in cybersecurity and help women develop relevant knowledge. For example, Women in Cybersecurity of Spain has started a mentoring program that supports female cybersecurity professionals early in their careers.

Some industry groups have collaborated with big companies. In 2018, Microsoft India and the Data Security Council of India launched the CyberShikshaa program in order to create a pool of skilled female cybersecurity professionals.

Some technology companies have launched programs to foster womens interest in and confidence to pursue internet security careers. One example is IBM Securitys Women in Security Excelling program, formed in 2015.

Attracting more women to the cybersecurity field requires a range of efforts. Cybersecurity job ads should be written so that female professionals feel welcome to apply. Recruitment efforts should focus on academic institutions with high female enrollment. Corporations should ensure that female employees see cybersecurity as a good option for internal career changes. And governments should work with the private sector and academic institutions to get young girls interested in cybersecurity.

Increasing womens participation in cybersecurity is good for women, good for business and good for society.

[Insight, in your inbox each day. You can get it with The Conversations email newsletter.]

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COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Analysis | Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market 2020-2024 | Increasing Incidence of Cyberattacks to Boost Growth |…

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Technavio has been monitoring the internet of things (IoT) security market and it is poised to grow by USD 80.94 billion during 2020-2024, progressing at a CAGR of almost 37% during the forecast period. The report offers an up-to-date analysis regarding the current market scenario, latest trends and drivers, and the overall market environment.

Technavio suggests three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic) considering the impact of COVID-19. Please Request Latest Free Sample Report on COVID-19 Impact

The market is fragmented, and the degree of fragmentation will accelerate during the forecast period. Allot Ltd., Broadcom Inc., CENTRI Technology Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Fortinet Inc, Gemalto NV, Infineon Technologies AG, Intel Corp, International Business Machines Corp, and Mocana Corp. are some of the major market participants. The increasing incidence of cyberattacks will offer immense growth opportunities. To make the most of the opportunities, market vendors should focus more on the growth prospects in the fast-growing segments, while maintaining their positions in the slow-growing segments.

Increasing incidence of cyberattacks has been instrumental in driving the growth of the market.

Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market 2020-2024: Segmentation

Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market is segmented as below:

To learn more about the global trends impacting the future of market research, download a free sample: https://www.technavio.com/talk-to-us?report=IRTNTR43566

Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market 2020-2024: Scope

Technavio presents a detailed picture of the market by the way of study, synthesis, and summation of data from multiple sources. Our internet of things (IoT) security market report covers the following areas:

This study identifies growing adoption of cloud-based services as one of the prime reasons driving the internet of things (IoT) security market growth during the next few years.

Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market 2020-2024: Vendor Analysis

We provide a detailed analysis of vendors operating in the internet of things (IoT) security market, including some of the vendors such as Allot Ltd., Broadcom Inc., CENTRI Technology Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Fortinet Inc, Gemalto NV, Infineon Technologies AG, Intel Corp, International Business Machines Corp, and Mocana Corp. Backed with competitive intelligence and benchmarking, our research reports on the internet of things (IoT) security market are designed to provide entry support, customer profile and M&As as well as go-to-market strategy support.

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Internet of Things (IoT) Security Market 2020-2024: Key Highlights

Table Of Contents:

Executive Summary

Market Landscape

Market Sizing

Five Forces Analysis

Market Segmentation by End-user

Customer landscape

Geographic Landscape

Market Drivers and Challenges

Market trends

Vendor Landscape

Vendor Analysis

Appendix

About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavios report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavios comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Break On Through To The Other Side – Seeking Alpha

The greatest question facing the financial markets is what the economy here and abroad will look like until we get to the other side - meaning a vaccine protecting us from COVID-19.

While we remain confident that there will be many therapeutics and much more testing by the fall, we still believe that the recovery will be an elongated U resulting in many companies, big and small, remaining under severe pressure, with some even filing bankruptcy, which would create another set of problems for the markets.

Clearly the unemployment rate will remain incredibly high throughout the next 18+ months maintaining pressure on The Fed to continue to inject more liquidity into the financial markets and the government to introduce several new phases of support, including more stimulus checks to help individuals and companies make it to the other side.

These actions support moving out on the risk curve owning financial assets. The economy will not return to any semblance of normal until we are all vaccinated which takes us into 2022 at the earliest. We want to emphasize that this is a pandemic that is impacting our economy, not a financial problem. Our banking system is strong. This too shall pass.

Other areas of concern for the markets will be our relationship with China which is frayed and the upcoming Presidential election in the fall. The financial markets will face a continual tug of war between incredible liquidity, a weak economy, potential problems with China, and the election.

We continue to focus on the winners in the new normal and recommend avoiding all companies in need of government assistance as demand for their products/services have fallen off a cliff and won't return anything close to normal levels until 2021/22 at the earliest. Many won't make it!

We are concerned that many states are not adhering to government guidelines maintaining social distancing and requiring people to wear masks. We need to open, but let it be done judiciously. We are watching China to see what guidelines they are using. They are utilizing contact tracing, temperature checks, thermal imagining, face masks, and social distancing. China's economy is gradually improving as evidenced by a 3.8% gain in factory output in April. While consumer spending remained depressed in April, it did improve sequentially from March and will continue to get better in the months ahead. China's growth this year is reliant on domestic demand as exports will remain weak due to a total lack of demand abroad. We need to follow the same script as China as we open but that may be difficult in a democracy protecting individual freedoms.

The most important event of the week was Powell's speech last Wednesday where he mentioned that the U.S economy could remain mired in a recession if Congress and the White House did not provide more aid to address the effects of the virus. He mentioned that the recovery is dependent on how long it will take treatments to rise, whether the end of social distancing will spur new outbreaks, and when consumer and business confidence will return. He went on to say that answers to these questions will go a long way toward setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. He concluded that the Fed will bring all its power to bear on stabilizing the economy and financial markets. He does not want negative rates and believes that fiscal support, while costly, is needed to avoid further economic damage. We concur on all counts

While we have many concerns, we remain confident that we will have enough testing by the fall, several therapeutics by mid-summer, and a vaccine within 18 months. All good news! We can move forward now opening up if the number of cases keeps falling and we adhere to the rules as any large outbreak would clearly push the economy back down. The bottom line is that the economy is bottoming but the effects of the coronavirus will linger for a long time until we are all vaccinated. S & P profits are not likely to reach a new high until the end of 2022, if then, but on the other hand, interest rates will remain unusually low.

We believe that the markets are within a trading range as the Fed will continue to provide all the liquidity needed to support the economy and financial markets providing wind to our back for profitable investing in the winners. Our investments remain concentrated in those companies whose business models are built around the internet as well as tied to growth in the cloud, data centers, and 5G. Consumer and business mindsets are changed forever. Chuck Robbins, head of Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), mentioned on their earnings' call that corporations are racing to expand their internet/security capabilities which is an investable trend for many years. Yes, we are there.

Individuals are doing the same buying smart devices and adding web accounts like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) mentioned that they are unable to get a sufficient number of laptops for their employees working at home. On the other hand, there are so many industries/companies that will struggle until demand moves above 80% utilization which may not be for several years. Just avoid them.

While it is early, we have started to think about the other side. We do not think that there will be any reversal in fiscal and monetary policies until the economy is on firm footing which takes us out to sometime in 2022 at the earliest, regardless of who wins the Presidency. During the interim period, we expect all hands-on board to keep our economy, businesses, and individuals afloat. There is a possibility of a tax bill down the road that is revenue neutral raising taxes on the wealthy giving all the benefits to the lower/middle class. We do not expect corporate taxes to go up and there may even be additional corporate tax benefits to move plants here from abroad, especially in healthcare.

We are concerned about our relationship with China. We are believers in globalization but also recognize the need to protect IP and deal on a level playing field. This, not the time to have a trade conflict with our largest trading partner. Hopefully, cooler heads prevail.

The bottom line is that this is a market of stocks, not a stock market. We see a two-tier market where the number of winners is limited to companies that will improve their earnings over the next few years. While we have focused on the internet beneficiaries, we also believe that healthcare and some defensive consumer names will outperform for another year or so until the economy is more broadly expanding. We decided to exit our one financial investment as we see low-interest rates and narrow spreads extending for at least another year which will penalize profitability. We also sold our one industrial, a great company, as we see earnings pressure for at least another year. Listen to as many earnings calls as possible and avoid any company with financial risk.

We do not own any bonds, are flat the dollar, have no commodity positions, and do not have any ownership in private equity funds.

Let's be careful as we open up, maintain social distancing, do contact tracing, wear masks, and stay healthy.

Our weekly webinar will be held on Monday, May 18th at 8:30 am EST. Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect, and consider mindset shifts; turn off cable news; do independent research and Invest Accordingly!

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Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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Post-COVID 19: The Virtual World And Digital Participation And Its Challenges In Ghana – Modern Ghana

Many of us today in the heat of the global pandemic has inbuilt high hopes anticipating a return to normalcy of the world after the present ugly day, but I am convinced there will be no world of going back but rather a world of moving forward.

It is noteworthy, that the world has transitioned once again from the inherent system of industrialization and modernization to a more technologically sophisticated new world; the virtual world. Virtual has become the new reality.

This is not to say humans havent experienced revolution of this kind ever, but rather another facet of human evolution. Long before the global evasion of COVID -19, an unassuming majority of the human population was already living dual lives: face to face living and the virtual citizenship (online community on virtual platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, twitter, to mention but few). Even at this level, the choice remain optional whether to subscribe to the virtual way or maintain the traditional way of life.

I must say, however, that even during this period of the transition, human activities have migrated to the new planet by converting to the virtual availability for the sake of survival. The human living has already transitioned for the better. The fact is that, the physical structures will not magically be changed due to the pandemic but the pre-COVID- 19 systems have changed and will remain the same thereafter.

The church cathedrals will be in place, schools and hospitals will remain, workplaces and other established ways of human socialization will remain but the church will not see members congregating as it was in 2019, lecture halls will not have students present in their masses for tutorials, hospitals will have less patients on admission, not because people wont fall sick, industries and companies will see less workers; all these activities will migrate to the virtual world and it has already begun taking stool in our present day.

Online classes are ongoing for students, pastors are going live online using various platforms, in some part of the world virtual medication is already the reality where doctors attend to their patients from home, some companies have shifted operations to online where staffs work from the comfort of their homes, all these are to ensure the safety of individual lives and at large saving the world from the dreaded pandemic towards survival in the next world.

All these are possible due to digitization of the world. About 4.021 billion of the world population is now online representing over half of the world population. This phenomena is the foundation of the new virtual world. For this reason, it is imperative as a country for us to consider our readiness for this global shift putting in perspective our level of digitization, participation, and its negative and positive influence on our future existence.

Ghana has over ten million internet users representing 35% of the total population with 5.60 million active social media users. The country has 32% active mobile internet users. We have seen a spike in mobile phone usage in the country over the decades, a phenomena that give rise to the number of internet users in the country. The data in its nature also tells us as reported on daily graphic online, that more people in our country use the internet with mobile phone as compared to other electronic device. Our internet penetration rate also spiked to over 37% of the population with the majority being the youths, leaving the older generation behind the mechanical world.

Inasmuch as we see more young people living half of their lives online even before the pandemic, there is a need to cross check our digital participation given the reason that digital inclusion and exclusion in Africa often highlight the lack of internet access as the main barrier to participation, but access is not the only way to effective digital participation and a lot more people in our country are not participating digitally. The DW Akademie reported a model to digital participation naming factors such as innovation, digital right, society, media and journalism as the definition of effective digital participation.

On Access, the model maintained that internet access is the foundation for people to participate in the digital world, in this case, the virtual world after COVID - 19. There are things that define access level of a country: A countrys Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and bandwidth quality are some of the indicators that determine Internet access. Having red this, one will realized that, we have a long way to go since there are communities even in the cities having problem with effective internet connectivity, and the expansion of bandwidth is mostly done in the big cities. What then becomes the reality of the rural dwellers who would have to be part of the new planet? The solution as prescribed by DW Akademie, for more access is that government must invest in infrastructure and civil society initiatives to offer public Wifi or community networks. This will require that devices such as mobile phones and computers be made affordable for at least the low to middle income earners to be able to have access to the internet. The cost of internet service must also be reduced to the level of the laymans strength and connectivity must expand beyond the current speed on even a 4G network

Innovation and participation are different sides of the same coin. The model explained that the rapid development of internet infrastructure and services are changing the ways that organizations, citizens, and journalists communicate. In this regard, the transition to the new planet of virtual realities demand the use of more sophisticated technologies, advancement of existing technologies in the country. The digital developments are marked by new forms of communication, new media formats and new business models.

The experience of media houses hosting panel discussions in the studios with the guests present has already seen a transition to online platforms such as zoom and Skype. However, there must be new innovation to redirect the virtual reality with the masses as well. Innovation often foster the participation of users in content creation, thereby making them recipient of information and active participants. New ways of accessing media content must be designed to suit our people as the world prepares for the new reality. The best way to achieve innovation is to study the existing technologies and bring the experts on board to develop ways of doing those things differently using the internet in such a manner that involves the participation of every citizen irrespective of their economic status and geographical location.

Discussing digital participation without digital right and literacy will amount to forcing the camel through the eye of the needle. The model directs that digital rights are part of the legal framework which determines if citizens are able to exert their fundamental human rights to freedom of expression, access to information and their rights to privacy. In our case, every Ghanaian has the freedom to express their opinions freely using any medium, a situation which has given rise to misinformation and disinformation.

The Right to Information Bill ( RTI) has also been passed into law and yet to be tested. However, one of the measures put in place to manage the spread of the pandemic seemed to have a taken a toll on the issue of privacy where a contact traced must provide certain vital information that borders on their private and family life. If this measure remain unchanged and we finally transit to the virtual world, then privacy as a digital right will be undermine.

Preparing for the virtual world, government must put measures in place to educate the populace on digital rights and mannerism on the online planet. People must know what is legitimate and what is fake and must be responsible for their actions online. Some other attributes that define digital rights as reported by the DW includes freedom of speech laws, the use of surveillance technologies, online activism by civil society groups or Internet governance processes.

As we prepare to face the new reality of the virtual world, one factor to be considered as digital participation is concerned is our society since according to the digital participation model, socio- cultural factors and education determine how individuals, groups, and societies can participate in the digital sphere.

Cultural norms, cultural imperatives and the literacy level may influence digital participation in both positive and negative ways. It has raised concerns as a country having 47% illiteracy rate ( US depth of States, 2009) to change the traditional believes of people who by their orientation regard technology as evil to accepting participation.

It is also of concern to begin working on our young people especially those below age sixteen who will be exposed to this virtual reality for the purpose of education and research. The possibilities of these young people becoming morally ineffective post-COVID-19 is on the high side to say. Our social moral values may be compromised and altered in various ways.

For example, in a typical traditional home today, it is regarded that it only the men who own and use technologies while women are excluded from taking advantage of them. But for the purpose of the new planet, these same women would have to own and use technologies for their daily endeavours.

Market women would have to avoid dealing with physical cash and resort to electronic payment modules such express pay, mobile money payment etc. When this finally become the reality, men in these homes are going to subject their wives to hardship and abuse, a situation which can result in many homes broken and the consequences on children and our society cant be undermined. For this reason, education on these areas of society must begin even before we finally make the move in order to avert its pending consequences.

Again, our socity has a long standing culture of socialization through public gatherings such as funerals and festivals, an action which has taken a new form by virtue of the global pandemic. Moving forward into participating in the digital world, our society and traditional leaders must be reoriented to understand that such social gatherings cant be possible in the former way but in the new order; the virtual way. That not say, our children are also going to lose these values in their moral lives.

Be as it may, one cannot talk at length about digital participation and its threats to our society without linking it to the brainchild of society; the media. According to the digital participation model as published by the DW Akademie, media and journalism is the foundation of societys information supply, its social discourse, and its democratic processes.

It maintained that societal discussions based on knowledge and facts are only possible if citizens are informed. In its opinion, the variety, quality, timeliness, and scope of content and media that can be accessed through the internet as well as participative formats determine digital participation in society. Media contents and its accessibility on the digital platform must be made possible by government policies of equal digital rights.

This can enable active participation of citizens in content creation, receiving and encourage effective political participation among citizens. However, a common challenge associated to the virtual media and journalism would be increased invasion of citizen journalists, creating room for fake news and in consequence reduce patronage, trust and relevance of the mainstream practice of professional journalism.

The media outlets will be anxious to break the news on the virtual platform as early as possible in order to meet the principle of timeliness. But this in itself can become problematic as the principle of gatekeeping will be taken out and paving way for inaccuracies in media reportage as the journalist sitting at the comfort of his or her home will make haste to break the news using new media devices available to them.

While we anticipate the imminent transition of the world into the virtual era is only possible using the internet, Africa has the highest data charges and all efforts in reducing the cost of data havent been rapid. The World Bank has lamented over the high cost of internet in low to middle income countries including Ghana. A study finding in October, 2018 by Alliance for Affordable Internet (A4AI), showed that more than 2.3 billion people live countries where just a Gigabyte of mobile data is not affordable.

The ugly side of the virtual world unfold in such cases as majority of people in Ghana within the low income level cannot afford mobile data to have access to the internet in order to fully participate in the digital world even as they have the electronic devices. On the average, one gigabyte of data can cost the Ghanaian GH. 20.00 and 200GB at an average cost of not less than GH 400.00.

The conundrum remained; how do the student access internet for lectures when data charges are relatively high in the country? What about the business men and women who by no fault of theirs would have to convert online in the coming reality?

What will then be the fate of the over nine million active mobile internet users in the country and the 5.60 million people who depend on internet data for social media usage? These and many other economic challenges would become the true colour of our next transition into the world of internet of things.

As the world gradually approach this transition to the virtual world, internet security and governance will be the next focus for our leaders to work on. Already the internet in Africa is crowded with people with ill will to intimidate and blindfold others for their parochial interest. The Ministry of Communication and the National Communication Authority must start developing pragmatic measures to avert and check cybercrimes as we zoom into the world of internet because more people will subscribe to the internet. Banks and financial institutions must equally start developing more virtually accessible and affordable ways of transaction while they protect their customers on the platforms.

Labour and skills is gradually taking a new turn to the world of technology where robotics is the new way. A situation which will make work easier and faster but also will leave more people jobless; a breeding ground for more crimes and poverty as most companies have already started reducing their staffs.

It is rather prudent for us to divert our skills training to more scientific and Information Technologically incline than the humanities. Individuals must take up the challenge to add value to their existing skills by learning ICT in order to remain relevant in the virtual world.

Having analyzed ways to digital participation, one would extrapolate that the global economy in the post COVID - 19 world will thrive on virtual realities, and it will be impossible to make a surge in such a world without having what it takes get citizens to fully participate in the digital world and control its pending challenges.

The efforts and the initiative of digitization as introduced by the incumbent government and championed by the Vice President, Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia must be a national concern and must not be seen as a political score sheet as such initiatives will only place us at a competitive advantage in the new virtual world. Individual members and corporate bodies including technology hubs and think-tanks must contribute their quota toward achieving that reality. Digitization is the next world reality and the earlier we prepare for this great transition, the better our survival in the post COVID - 19 new world.

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Post-COVID 19: The Virtual World And Digital Participation And Its Challenges In Ghana - Modern Ghana

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Embracing Remote Learning and Working after COVID-19 as our New Reality – THISDAY Newspapers

By Ehi Braimah

The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, is still on the war path, ravaging the land and killing people. However, we are consoled by the fact that whatever has a beginning will surely have an end and the human race will continue to endure from generation to generation. In challenging times, empathy matters; we have to remain resilient, hopeful, confident, optimistic and thoughtful about the future. The global economy has been severely impacted by COVID-19 and we must therefore adapt our normal lives to the significant changes taking place. What does the foreseeable future look like? We cannot tell but English Naturalist, Charles Darwin (1809 1882), famous for his Theory of Evolution, said, Those who survive are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.

Every global crisis ushers in a new cultural moment which we must adapt to on the one hand, and embrace the challenges and opportunities on the other. As we go along and navigate these unchartered waters, Susan Kobasa, a psychologist writing in http://www.mindtools.com, reminds us that we must be resilient and never give up. She explains the importance of resilience as our ability to adapt and bounce back when things dont go as planned. Kobasa also highlighted the three characteristics of resilience as challenge (resilient people view difficulty as a challenge, not a paralysing event); commitment (resilient people are committed to their lives and goals) and personal control (resilient people focus on only the things they have control over). COVID-19 will impact our businesses in ways we never imagined but we can empower ourselves by adapting to the new reality and do even greater things.

Talking about changes, our world has also been disrupted by rapidly changing digital technologies in more ways than one and the three biggest enablers are the internet, smart phones and social media. The good news is that these changing technologies continually make our lives better. The largest accommodation provider in the world is AirBnB but it owns no real estate. Who would have thought, some years back, that you can actually share an apartment with strangers? Facebook is the most popular media in the world and yet it provides no content; Alibaba is the most valuable retailer but it has no inventory; Instagram does not sell cameras but we are happy to upload our photographs and share our stories thereby making it the most valuable photo company in the world. Now, we can book rides from our smart phones, making UBER, which owns no vehicle, the biggest taxi company in the world. Most car owners now prefer cab hailing services because it is actually cheaper when you consider the wear and tear on your car and cost of petrol. It is the same story with Netflix, the largest growing TV network that does not lay cables. What would life be like today without access to the internet or without these global tech brands? To be honest, it will be miserable. Theres so much happening on the World Wide Web with endless possibilities. We are gradually being introduced to the internet of things (IoT), augmented reality (AR), artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G technologies.

Technology is placing useful information at our finger tips every blessed day. Computers are becoming increasingly faster, more portable and high-powered than ever before. See how Facebook has brought families and friends together with over 2.5 billion users, taking socialization to a new level. Practically everything well almost everything is done on the internet including online banking and online newspapering; businesses and schools have also migrated to the digital space. If youre travelling, you can book your ticket and make hotel reservation from any device, especially your smart phone. Any business, commercial and non-commercial organisation ignoring the internet does so at its own peril. With just a click of the button, searching the internet has been made easy with Google, the number one search engine brand in the world. According to Walter Landor (1913 1995), a pioneer of branding and consumer research techniques widely used to this day, Products are made in the factory but brands are created in the mind. Al Ries, one of the worlds best known marketing strategists, agrees that successful brands such as Facebook, UBER, Netflix, AirBnB, Alibaba, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Google are created in the mind through strategic positioning principles.

Like most businesses, Google also struggled when the company started. In his best-selling book, Burn the Business Plan, Carl Schramm, a university professor and entrepreneur, wrote this about Google: Just as in the big company environment, every startup has to constantly and continuously improve its products if it hopes to survive. Google provides a good example. At first, it foundered in a sea of search engine companies. Many observers didnt give it a chance in the face of Excite, Webcrawler, Altavista, Infoseek, and Yahoo. (Other than Yahoo, do you recognise those names?) It was not until Google founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, hired a professional CEO, Eric Schmidt, who in turn recruited Hal Varian, that the company found a way to make money. As an economics professor at Berkeley, Varian had developed the algorithms that enabled Google to devise targeted advertising. That business competence allowed it to rapidly rise to dominate the search industry.

In a world turned upside down by COVID-19, the global pandemic has taught us that remote learning and working are possible by deploying the relevant tech tools such as Zoom video conferencing, a cloud based service, during the forced lockdown. Recently, President Muhammadu Buhari joined advocates of remote working around the world when he participated in an extra-ordinary ECOWAS meeting in Abuja through a video conference to review the impact of the deadly coronavirus on the region. From my personal experience, remote learning is no longer a distant possibility; it is right here with us. Over a 30 months period, I took part in online classes for my MBA programme at the University of Roehampton, London. It was a very intense and rigorous schedule with short breaks between course modules. The only time we travelled to London was for the graduation ceremony.

Since the lockdown began, remote meetings have become the order of the day. We now conduct our weekly Rotary meetings using the Zoom video conference application which allows messages to be shared while the meeting is on; hands can be raised if you wish to speak by using the hand icon provided and microphones can be muted to allow for uninterrupted conversations. At a strategy session recently where we reviewed the impact of COVID-19 on businesses in Nigeria, there was a debate on our readiness to adopt remote working as a way of life. Toju Ogbe, a Nigerian communications strategist based in the UK, was one of the participants and he does not think remote working will become our new reality in the immediate aftermath of COVID-19 because of our peculiar challenges.

Ogbe said, Nigeria is still significantly unprepared for large scale adoption of remote learning and working. For instance, if you consider the proportion of schools especially public schools that do not have the capacity to offer remote learning, you will see that we are yet to scratch the surface. I would imagine it is the same in the work place, and the issue is less about our choice and more about our readiness. The public and private sector organisations should collaborate and develop a framework with timelines for remote learning and working capabilities. However, in the UK and other advanced countries, remote working is not a new thing because the available infrastructure supports online studies and working from home.

Debo Adebayo, a management consultant and facilitator of the session, disagreed with Ogbe because, according to him, he worked on a regular basis remotely for some clients before COVID-19. The key to remote working is to have a clear cut contract with you client and effective performance management system, Adebayo advised. Remote learning and working will become our new reality from the lock down experience. As a way of reducing cost, most organisations will encourage remote working, he added. Yemi Adeboye, former Corporate Relations Manager of Unilever Nigeria PLC, observed that there are costs associated with working from home. To be able to study or work remotely, you need space, laptop, electricity supply and internet access. Who bears these costs, especially expensive data and diesel or petrol for your generator because of erratic power supply? Adeboye asked. These costs can be factored into invoices submitted to clients by consultants; however, where employees are concerned, the organisation they work for should absorb the costs based on the terms and conditions for working from home.

Participants were in agreement that the challenges posed by low speed internet, expensive data and poor electricity supply are constraints that should be addressed by the relevant organisations as we embrace remote learning and working. In a congested city such as Lagos, where you can be held up in traffic for over three hours on your way to attend a meeting, remote meetings may be the solution to save time and other resources. For some organisations, remote working may not be applicable because of the need to protect sensitive proprietary tools and information. In such scenarios, you can only work from within the company premises by logging into a remote serve, and once you step out, you are logged out.

Ogbe also observed that working from home requires total commitment and adjustment of our thinking, orientation and mindset. If you agree with your employer that you will work for six hours from home on a particular day, please for Gods sake, make sure you work for six hours, he admonished, with a strong accent on integrity because our word should be our bond. The issue of internet security also came up during the strategy session especially now that Zoom meetings are becoming popular. The ICT expert among us, Fred Chukwuemeka Agbata Jnr., presenter of Tech Trends on Channels TV and Regional Director of Founder Institute, noted that hackers are on the prowl every minute of the day and cautioned that we must take our personal security on the internet very seriously. We have since discovered that social media accounts and even chats as well as voice/video calls on WhatsApp are not safe. Do not click on any suspicious link or open a spam email; instead, delete immediately or you can copy and paste the link on a new web browser so that your devices and information are not compromised. Nigeria can create massive opportunities for digital business if only we can establish our own local data centres and empower the ICT professionals.

Group meetings/conferences are also conducted using Facebook, Instagram and Twitter applications. WhatsApp is a popular medium of communication with chat, voice and video capabilities for local/international calls free of charge. Meetings also take place in WhatsApp groups, and in some cases, WhatsApp forums are created to achieve different objectives. By the way, Facebook is the owner of Instagram and WhatsApp Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion 18 months after it was launched, and subsequently bought WhatsApp when it was five years for $19 billion.

Remote working is flexible because you can be in control of your time. In fact, it was agreed during the session that employees are likely to be more productive when they work from home as long as a good performance management framework is in place as Adebayo noted. As we prepare for the post quarantine era, remote learning and working will still come across as a form of culture shock; a practice we are not generally used to but the more we embrace tech tools and their applications, the more we are likely to adopt the range of benefits in spite of the limitations of irregular electricity supply, expensive data and internet disruptions. The rest of the world is moving ahead in the digital space and we cannot afford to be left behind.

*Braimah is a public relations and marketing strategist based in Lagos

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Embracing Remote Learning and Working after COVID-19 as our New Reality - THISDAY Newspapers

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7 Types Of Artificial Intelligence – Forbes

Artificial Intelligence is probably the most complex and astounding creations of humanity yet. And that is disregarding the fact that the field remains largely unexplored, which means that every amazing AI application that we see today represents merely the tip of the AI iceberg, as it were. While this fact may have been stated and restated numerous times, it is still hard to comprehensively gain perspective on the potential impact of AI in the future. The reason for this is the revolutionary impact that AI is having on society, even at such a relatively early stage in its evolution.

AIs rapid growth and powerful capabilities have made people paranoid about the inevitability and proximity of an AI takeover. Also, the transformation brought about by AI in different industries has made business leaders and the mainstream public think that we are close to achieving the peak of AI research and maxing out AIs potential. However, understanding the types of AI that are possible and the types that exist now will give a clearer picture of existing AI capabilities and the long road ahead for AI research.

Since AI research purports to make machines emulate human-like functioning, the degree to which an AI system can replicate human capabilities is used as the criterion for determining the types of AI. Thus, depending on how a machine compares to humans in terms of versatility and performance, AI can be classified under one, among the multiple types of AI. Under such a system, an AI that can perform more human-like functions with equivalent levels of proficiency will be considered as a more evolved type of AI, while an AI that has limited functionality and performance would be considered a simpler and less evolved type.

Based on this criterion, there are two ways in which AI is generally classified. One type is based on classifying AI and AI-enabled machines based on their likeness to the human mind, and their ability to think and perhaps even feel like humans. According to this system of classification, there are four types of AI or AI-based systems: reactive machines, limited memory machines, theory of mind, and self-aware AI.

These are the oldest forms of AI systems that have extremely limited capability. They emulate the human minds ability to respond to different kinds of stimuli. These machines do not have memory-based functionality. This means such machines cannot use previously gained experiences to inform their present actions, i.e., these machines do not have the ability to learn. These machines could only be used for automatically responding to a limited set or combination of inputs. They cannot be used to rely on memory to improve their operations based on the same. A popular example of a reactive AI machine is IBMs Deep Blue, a machine that beat chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997.

Limited memory machines are machines that, in addition to having the capabilities of purely reactive machines, are also capable of learning from historical data to make decisions. Nearly all existing applications that we know of come under this category of AI. All present-day AI systems, such as those using deep learning, are trained by large volumes of training data that they store in their memory to form a reference model for solving future problems. For instance, an image recognition AI is trained using thousands of pictures and their labels to teach it to name objects it scans. When an image is scanned by such an AI, it uses the training images as references to understand the contents of the image presented to it, and based on its learning experience it labels new images with increasing accuracy.

Almost all present-day AI applications, from chatbots and virtual assistants to self-driving vehicles are all driven by limited memory AI.

While the previous two types of AI have been and are found in abundance, the next two types of AI exist, for now, either as a concept or a work in progress. Theory of mind AI is the next level of AI systems that researchers are currently engaged in innovating. A theory of mind level AI will be able to better understand the entities it is interacting with by discerning their needs, emotions, beliefs, and thought processes. While artificial emotional intelligence is already a budding industry and an area of interest for leading AI researchers, achieving Theory of mind level of AI will require development in other branches of AI as well. This is because to truly understand human needs, AI machines will have to perceive humans as individuals whose minds can be shaped by multiple factors, essentially understanding humans.

This is the final stage of AI development which currently exists only hypothetically. Self-aware AI, which, self explanatorily, is an AI that has evolved to be so akin to the human brain that it has developed self-awareness. Creating this type of Ai, which is decades, if not centuries away from materializing, is and will always be the ultimate objective of all AI research. This type of AI will not only be able to understand and evoke emotions in those it interacts with, but also have emotions, needs, beliefs, and potentially desires of its own. And this is the type of AI that doomsayers of the technology are wary of. Although the development of self-aware can potentially boost our progress as a civilization by leaps and bounds, it can also potentially lead to catastrophe. This is because once self-aware, the AI would be capable of having ideas like self-preservation which may directly or indirectly spell the end for humanity, as such an entity could easily outmaneuver the intellect of any human being and plot elaborate schemes to take over humanity.

The alternate system of classification that is more generally used in tech parlance is the classification of the technology into Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI).

This type of artificial intelligence represents all the existing AI, including even the most complicated and capable AI that has ever been created to date. Artificial narrow intelligence refers to AI systems that can only perform a specific task autonomously using human-like capabilities. These machines can do nothing more than what they are programmed to do, and thus have a very limited or narrow range of competencies. According to the aforementioned system of classification, these systems correspond to all the reactive and limited memory AI. Even the most complex AI that uses machine learning and deep learning to teach itself falls under ANI.

Artificial General Intelligence is the ability of an AI agent to learn, perceive, understand, and function completely like a human being. These systems will be able to independently build multiple competencies and form connections and generalizations across domains, massively cutting down on time needed for training. This will make AI systems just as capable as humans by replicating our multi-functional capabilities.

The development of Artificial Superintelligence will probably mark the pinnacle of AI research, as AGI will become by far the most capable forms of intelligence on earth. ASI, in addition to replicating the multi-faceted intelligence of human beings, will be exceedingly better at everything they do because of overwhelmingly greater memory, faster data processing and analysis, and decision-making capabilities. The development of AGI and ASI will lead to a scenario most popularly referred to as the singularity. And while the potential of having such powerful machines at our disposal seems appealing, these machines may also threaten our existence or at the very least, our way of life.

At this point, it is hard to picture the state of our world when more advanced types of AI come into being. However, it is clear that there is a long way to get there as the current state of AI development compared to where it is projected to go is still in its rudimentary stage. For those holding a negative outlook for the future of AI, this means that now is a little too soon to be worrying about the singularity, and there's still time to ensure AI safety. And for those who are optimistic about the future of AI, the fact that we've merely scratched the surface of AI development makes the future even more exciting.

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7 Types Of Artificial Intelligence - Forbes

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