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As once again captures attention, the concept of "halving" has emerged as a crucial factor influencing the cryptocurrency's value and market dynamics. As a result, many market participants are providing their latest bitcoin price prediction.

Understanding the impact of halving on Bitcoin is essential for investors. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years. It is an event that halves mining rewards and reduces Bitcoin supply. As a result, the impact is hotly debated, with the leading cryptocurrency usually rising after the event.

After previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has generally risen not long after. However, it is rare to see BTC hit a new all-time high ahead of the event.

Bitcoin hit a new high of well over $73,000 last week, although it pulled back to above the $64,000 mark over the weekend. Nevertheless, it is now back over $68,000.

For the year-to-date, Bitcoin is up more than 61%, while in the last 12 months, it has risen more than 152%.

Speaking to Investing.com, Yuya Takemura, Founder of Axys Holding, noted that Bitcoin halving events typically lead to the price rising.

The next halving in 2024 may follow this trend, possibly causing a significant price increase in 2025, said Takemura. Considering Bitcoin's past performance and increasing adoption, a significant price increase in 2025 is plausible. Factors such as limited supply, growing institutional interest, and wider acceptance in payment systems play a role.

Takemura also recognized that the global recognition through ETF approvals, Gen Z's growing participation, and blockchain adoption by authoritative entities could impact the price. However, he cautioned that the Bitcoin market is volatile and susceptible to global economic conditions.

Meanwhile, Menno Martens, a crypto specialist and product manager at VanEck, told Investing.com that historical trends show that Bitcoin tends to rally before, during, and after halving events.

However, he said, It should be noted that there are some exclusions, for example, Bitcoin also sees significant corrections of over 82% and 80% down during the 3rd and 2nd cycle respectively.

Bitcoins price recovery to previous ATH seems to be faster than previous cycles. Bitcoins price is above the previous ATH already, suggesting this cycle may be different and making a significant correction likely, cautioned Martens.

He believes that what sets this particular halving apart is the introduction of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US market.

While similar products, like the VanEck Bitcoin ETN, have been available since 2020, the launch of a Spot ETF in the US is seen by many as a watershed moment for Bitcoin, akin to the IPO of a major asset, he added. Comparisons are drawn to the effect of ETFs on the gold market, where an eight-year bull run followed the launch of gold ETFs.

Furthermore, Martens explains that ETFs play a significant role in market dynamics, holding over 4.2% of circulating Bitcoin and absorbing a considerable portion of newly minted coins daily. As a result, he believes the absorption may intensify post-halving, potentially reducing the available Bitcoin supply for non-ETF investors.

If demand remains high, as observed in recent weeks, this could theoretically lead to significant price appreciation, he said. The risk is that Bitcoin could also see significant corrections.

Elsewhere, in a recent research note, analysts at JMP Securities said they believe Bitcoin price could reach a high of $280,000 within the next three years, driven by the anticipated Bitcoin ETF inflows.

We estimate that after ~$10B inflows to date, two months into launch, flows will actually continue to grow materially from here over the next few years as the ETF approval is just the beginning of a longer process of capital allocation, JMP wrote.

The investment firm calculates around $220 billion of incremental flows into Bitcoin ETFs over the next three years.

We estimate a current multiplier of ~25x, which on our flow estimate would equate to an incremental $280K per Bitcoin, they added.

Meanwhile, Bernstein said it is now more convinced about its $150K price target for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin today is at $71K, we expected this to break out post-halving. We built Bitcoin institutional flows in our estimates to arrive at Bitcoin price. We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025, the firm explained.

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Bitcoin price prediction: What is the impact of halving on BTC By Investing.com - Investing.com

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in recovery mode after an unusually volatile weekend sparked heavy losses.

BTC price action is struggling to reclaim old all-time highs after days of sustained selling pressure can bulls turn the tide?

A key macroeconomic week ensures that unpredictable trading conditions will continue as both crypto and risk assets await cues from the United States Federal Reserve. The battle against inflation rages on, and more recent data suggests that inflationary forces are not giving up without a fight.

With BTC/USD acting within a critical zone that must be reclaimed for price discovery to continue, there is everything to play for this week.

Bitcoin is now just one month away from its next block subsidy halving and could be repeating history with a classic pre-halving retracement.

Cointelegraph takes a closer look at these issues and others at hand in the weekly rundown of what could impact BTC price action in the coming days and beyond.

A brutal weekend for bulls hoping for a break soon placed Bitcoin at its lowest levels since March 6.

Bouncing near $64,500, BTC/USD then produced a solid recovery, almost reaching the $69,000 mark before encountering fresh losses at the weekly close.

At the time of writing, the pair circled $68,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, still unable to crack the area well known as the site of its old all-time highs from 2021.

Analyzing the current setup, [popular trader Skew flagged the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart as a line to reclaim next. Bitcoins relative strength index (RSI) readings on four-hour timeframes, currently at 48.2, should also return above 50.

Still need a strong close above 4H 21EMA & RSI above 50 In confluence with reclaim of $69K - $70K, part of his latest post on Xread.

Bitcoin selling pressure was nonetheless unusually intense for a weekend with the absence of institutional trading.

One theory circulating online put the trend down to a single hedge funds position unwinding. Here, the entity may have been long BTC while simultaneously shorting the stock of tech firm MicroStrategy. When this was liquidated, the fund had no choice but to sell around $1 billion in BTC to cover the losses.

Also all week shrimp crabs and fish selling, investor Fred Krueger added in part of an explanation on X, referring to additional offloading by smaller BTC holders.

Despite the setback, Bitcoin nonetheless managed its second-highest weekly close ever. At just below $68,400, the largest cryptocurrency finished the week down a mere $600 versus its previous close.

New week, with Bitcoin above the highest resistance level on the chart, popular trader Jelle wrote in an optimistic post.

Some of the latest market data captures the extent of the flush that occurred across exchanges in the wake of near two-week lows.

Numbers from monitoring resource CoinGlass show days of long liquidations totaling more than $300 million.

On largest global exchange Binance, perpetual swaps now have little liquidity around price, with a wall of bid support only in place at $66,266. Sellers lie in wait above $69,000.

A side effect of the weekend came in the form of a reset in both open interest and funding rates, the latter still overly positive but a fraction of the recent peaks.

Too much bearish sentiment on my timeline. Bitcoin is trading $5k below its ATH, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, responded.

Van Straten noted that funding rates had not been negative since September 2023, and he highly doubted that those would return.

We have been and are in a bullish structure since October, so positive funding continues, with occasional resets when we get too frothy, he commented.

Bitcoin miners are on course to enjoy its final month of 6.25 BTC block subsidies before Aprils halving.

The debate around how the event will impact BTC price behavior continues a new all-time high, after all, has never preceded a halving but instead came months after it.

As Cointelegraph reported, some believe that the current journey to all-time highs could be completed sooner than during other price cycles. Around the halving itself, however, Bitcoin may still stick to the classic playbook lower, then higher.

In recent content on the topic, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital spelled out the risks for hodlers going forward.

In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the Danger Zone (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun, he warned on March 17 alongside an illustrative chart.

In halving years gone by, this danger zone produced corrections of up to 40% far beyond the current maximum drawdown from recent all-time highs of around $73,700.

Bitcoin is slowly transitioning away from its Pre-Halving Rally phase and into its Pre-Halving Retrace phase, Rekt Capital added.

He further noted that despite consistent buying by the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), standard cycle phenomena are still playing out.

A crunch week for risk assets centers around the Feds next decision on interest rates and accompanying commentary from Chair Jerome Powell.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude on March 20 and forms a classic risk-asset volatility catalyst.

That said, markets are expecting few surprises this time persistent inflation has removed the chance of a rate cut, and even subsequent FOMC gatherings are not thought to be apt to buck the trend.

The latest estimates from CME Groups FedWatch Tool put the chances of a cut at the FOMC meeting at just 8%.

Its official: For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in ananalysis of broader FedWatch data.

Powell will make two speaking appearances this week, with the second on March 22. Market observers will closely watch the language used as cues for future policy moves.

All eyes are on Fed guidance at this weeks Fed meeting. With 2 months of rising CPI inflation, the Fed has to be concerned, Kobeissi continued.

While sentiment remains in the extreme greed zone, according to the market sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, some hodlers are voting with their wallets.

Related:How low can BTC price go? Bitcoin analysis points to $45K

Profit-taking on long-held coins has spiked significantly, the latest data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms.

Long-term holders (LTHs) entities hodling coins for at least 155 days have distributed nearly 600,000 BTC, or around $40 billion, over the past month.

Discussing the phenomenon on X, CryptoQuant contributors attributed a portion of the selling to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin miners have also stepped up sellingin 2024.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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FOMC meets halving 'danger zone' 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week - Cointelegraph

The arrival of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot Bitcoin (BTC) has changed everything, but not just for institutions. It created a polarized market for retail crypto investors, and were about to see a major rebalancing as a result.

On one hand, we have mom-and-pop investors who are now getting exposure to Bitcoin via their advisers investing in spot BTC ETFs for the first time ever. Its only a matter of time until Bitcoin becomes as common in these household portfolios as gold. On the other hand, though, we have the OGs of the crypto market those that have been around since the early days and fully subscribe to the ethos of Web3. They invest in Bitcoin because of its decentralization and censorship resistance. But now that every man and his dog are adding Bitcoin to their portfolios, theyve lost their first-mover advantage and they're about to revolt.

From the point of view of an early Bitcoin investor, the world's biggest crypto asset has, indeed, strayed far from its original purpose to replace the existing broken payments system. Inadvertently, it has now become part of the very system it was designed to subvert. It would be a little like discovering a hidden gem of a restaurant, only to see it explode in popularity and be taken over by a large corporation. The quality would drop, the original purpose be all but forgotten, and youd struggle to get a seat at the table.

Related: Bitcoin just hit a record in open interest expect imminent volatility

Its not just about the purpose of Bitcoin, though. As more and more buyers vie for an increasingly limited supply of this finite asset, Bitcoins price will soar, but itll be the big boys that benefit, as even the 25 basis points they earn for managing the BTC spot ETFs will bring in billions. Sure, the crypto-savvy retail buyers will still be able to get their hands on Bitcoin directly via crypto exchanges, but giving up most of the profits to the worlds biggest asset managers isnt what Web3 has ever been about.

So we are witnessing a polarization of the crypto market into the mom-and-pop investors willing to pay the ticket price to ride the Bitcoin train, and those that are used to getting this ride for free. These latter investors wont stick around to see if the ride is worth the fee, they will simply go elsewhere a part of the market that remains true to the ethos of crypto and offers intermediary-free access to the world of blockchain.

This will be the catalyst for the much-anticipated altcoin season. The Bitcoin maxis diversifying their portfolios, the crypto OGs looking for bigger and better returns as Bitcoin becomes mainstream, and the true believers in cryptos decentralized dream.

So far, altcoins have lagged Bitcoin in terms of performance, as is common during this part of the cycle. But were beginning to see signs of a reversal. Over the last 10 weeks or so, Ethereum (ETH) has been posting higher highs and higher lows against Bitcoin, meaning we could be in for a breakout sometime in the coming weeks. When this happens, altcoins will follow as they always do and it will be the Bitcoin investors seeking alternatives that drive this transition.

In fact, the more institutions dive into Bitcoin and the more traditional investors add it to their portfolios, the more polarized the crypto retail market will become. And amid this re-allocation of assets into altcoins, we will see several of them rise into the too-big-to-fail ranks that have, until now, really only been the realm of Bitcoin. This cycle will be a decisive one in sorting the wheat from the chaff and determining which alts will live to see another bull market.

Related: Curb your enthusiasm crypto prices aren't going to move as quickly as you think

Thats not to say that every crypto-savvy retail investor will flee Bitcoin entirely. After all, altcoin investing requires a relatively strong stomach. For most, Bitcoin will become the balancer the reliable and less volatile core in their portfolios that provides the buffer for higher-risk investments. But as the Bitcoin behemoth grows, we can expect the asset to lose some of its most dedicated OGs, as they head off in search of more decentralized alternatives and bigger gains.

However this rebalancing plays out, one thing is clear: the institutions will profit either way. Even a major retail exodus will have very little impact on BTCs price direction now the scarcity, growing demand, and billions of institutional inflows will take care of that.

It will, however, have a profound effect on the future of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. With only just over $100 billion in total value locked (TVL) to date against Bitcoins growing $1.4 trillion market cap even a relatively insignificant rotation into altcoins could have a major impact on DeFis growth. If Bitcoin maxis turn to altcoins with the same fervor they've dedicated to BTC since launch, were about to see some explosive growth in altcoins. Whichever side of the camp you find yourself on, get ready for an exciting summer.

Lucas Kiely is a guest author and the chief investment officer for Yield App, where he oversees investment portfolio allocations and leads the expansion of a diversified investment product range. He was previously the chief investment officer at Diginex Asset Management, and a senior trader and managing director at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, where he managed QIS and Structured Derivatives trading. He was also the head of exotic derivatives at UBS in Australia.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin maxis are about to kick off the altseason as BTC turns institutional - Cointelegraph

Historically, every Bitcoin halving a disinflationary mechanism inscribed in the currencys code by Satoshi Nakamoto has come a year or two before a new all-time high.

This is partly because a halving cuts the block reward paid to miners in half, reducing the number of new bitcoin being created and theoretically making bitcoin more scarce.

For example, with the latest halving to come, the block reward will fall from 6.25 bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC.

The three previous Bitcoin halvings occurred in the run-up to an all-time high, which then gave way to a price drawdown until the next halving helped ignite another rally, according to some market observers.

Read more: The next bitcoin halving is coming. Heres what you need to know.

But the upcoming halving has broken that trend. For the first time in its history, bitcoin set an all-time price high in the immediate run-up to the halving when it topped $70,000 this month.

Blockworks examined how bitcoins price responded to prior halvings. Heres what we found.

Nearly four years after Bitcoins genesis block was mined, the network underwent its first halving.

Bitcoins nascent community was unsure whether the supply slow-down would drive prices up, or if the halving was already priced in, as a then-teenaged Vitalik Buterin laid out in Bitcoin Magazine at the time. Bitcoiners gathered at meet-ups around the globe to ring in the halving.

Bitcoin, which had been trading for around $12 in the lead-up to the first halving in November 2012, jumped to $229 by April 2013, then climbed to roughly $1,132 by the following November, according to TradingView.

In the wake of the collapse of the Japan-based exchange Mt Gox, bitcoins price would toil away in the hundreds of dollars range for the next three years.

By 2016, a host of new cryptocurrencies had cropped up. Shortly after the second halving, Ethereum would undergo a hard fork in the wake of the catastrophic DAO hack.

Bitcoiners remained split on how the second halving would affect bitcoins price. Right now, Im disappointed, a user wrote on the BitcoinTalk forum a few hours before the block reward was cut in half.

Read more: How the halving could impact bitcoins price

Bitcoins price gradually rose for a few months after the second halving before picking up momentum in May 2017. By December 2017, bitcoin hit a new high of roughly $19,188, a market event that came a year and a half after the halving.

By the third halving, bitcoin was more than a decade old and had become more of a known commodity.

Hey guys I think bitcoin is halving today, not sure if youve heard, a new crypto exchange founder named Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted. The markets publication of TD Ameritrade published a piece wondering whether the halving was already priced in.

Once again, it wasnt.

Bitcoins price rose from around $8,500 at the May 2020 halving to over $40,000 by January 2021. Bitcoin topped $63,000 in April before peaking above $67,000 in November 2021, nine years after the first halving.

It seems like a fools errand to question whether the next bitcoin halving will lead to a price run at this point, but the circumstances are noticeably different this time around.

When the decade-long fight for the Securities and Exchange Commissions approval on spot bitcoin ETFs resolved in January, bitcoin embarked on an ongoing bull run to an all-time high above $73,000.

This is uncharted territory for halvings, which previously came with bitcoins price far below its prior peak.

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The history of bitcoin halvings and why this time might look different - Blockworks

Key points:

According to Rekt Capital, a renowned crypto analyst on X, the current bull cycle will retain the fundamental trend pattern preceding Bitcoin halving despite significant impact from the ETF. The analyst acknowledged the newly launched ETFs have played a role in how the Bitcoin market has developed. However, he believes there will be a pre-halving retracement, like in the previous bull cycles.

In one of his posts, Rekt Capital predicted Bitcoin is a few days away from entering the Danger Zone. According to him, the Danger Zone is where the pre-halving retracement begins. He used historical data to explain that Bitcoin performs pre-halving retracements 14 to 28 days before the halving event.

To further explain his observation, the renowned analyst showed that Bitcoin retraced by 20% in the days leading to the 2020 Bitcoin halving. Similarly, before the 2016 halving event, the flagship crypto pulled back by 40% after an initial rally.

At the time of Rekt Capitals post, the Bitcoin halving event was 31 days away, and the pioneer crypto had retraced by 11%. BTC had dropped from the recently achieved all-time high (ATH) of $73,794 to around $65,000, according to data from TradingView.

The famous analyst accompanied his prediction with a chart analysis suggesting Bitcoin could experience further price drops in a post-halving re-accumulation phase. He also revealed the post-halving accumulation would prepare the topmost cryptocurrency for a post-halving parabolic upside movement.

Bitcoin traded for $65,469 at the time of writing amid a general market downtime. The newly launched ETFs impact on the current bull run is significant, especially in pushing BTC to a new ATH before the halving event. That is a situation the crypto market did not experience until the current bull cycle.

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Bitcoin is A Few Days Away From Entering The Danger Zone Analyst - TradingView