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Two weeks ago, I showed you that Bitcoin (BTC) had two options Pay me now or pay me later. Back then, I viewed BTC as either setting up as a -in Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) terms- nested one-two set up or it is topping out. The difference between the two options is simple: breakout above the mid-August high ($50514), or breakdown below the recent lows at around $46245 to target $40-44K. From there, BTC can then start its rally to $90K.

The cryptocurrency did throw a curveball*, as it broke above the $50514 high, rallied to as high as $52919, and then plunged essentially in one day down to $43500. It certainly caught me on the wrong side, but that is why one always has stops in place, as there are no guarantees in the markets, and one always has to adhere to rule number one in trading: minimize your losses. The pop and drop pattern into the original $40-44K target zone clarifies things. Allow me to explain below.

Figure 1. Bitcoin daily charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

All corrections consist of at least three waves: a, b, c. See Figure 1A. Corrections are either 2nd or 4th waves. Allow me to explain. BTC topped out on September 7 at $52919 and lost 17% intra-day (red, intermediate wave-a). Then it rallied in an overlapping fashion to $48788 on September 17 (red, intermediate wave-b) and then dropped yesterday and today again to $40213 (red, intermediate wave-c). In this case, todays low (wave-c) equaled almost precisely the length of wave-a measured from the top of wave-b (red arrow).

This length is a typical relationship for what in EWP-terms is called a zigzag correction. Besides, BTC has retraced almost precisely 50% of the rally that started in June at todays low. In this case, I count that rally as a more significant 1st wave (black, major wave-1) as it can be assessed as having made five waves up (the five red, intermediate waves i, ii, iii, iv, and v). The current decline is then major wave-2, which could have been completed as there is now the required minimum of three waves down with a classic internal relationship. The 50%, as mentioned earlier, retrace of wave-1 is also typical for a 2nd wave.

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However, Figure 1B shows the BTC Bulls are not out of the woods just yet, as the September 7 high at $52919 could also have been a more significant b-wave bounce. That means the cryptocurrency is now working its way down back the $29K region for a c-wave of a more enormous (blue) Primary-IV wave. Remember, corrections are always at least three waves, and in this case, I assess BTC having topped in April and not in March as with the Bullish option. This bearish option then allows for three waves: wave-a to the June low, wave-b to the recent September high, and now wave-c is underway. A further breakdown in price, especially below $37220 towards the shown 161.80% extension at $33255, will make this option my preferred path.

The Bulls would need to see BTC hold above $37220 and see a rally back above Saturdays $48788 high to tell us the current three-waves down pattern have completed and a retest of $53K is in the cards. From an EWP perspective, BTC will ultimately have to break above $56K to know that larger wave-3 is underway. But, before that my indicators will have moved from down to up, from sell to buy, and my automated crypto trading alerts will have given a buy signal long before that as well.

Bottom line: Bitcoins price chart still has a bearish potential that can target as low as $29K before the run to $90K+ finally gets going. A continued move down towards the mid-30Ks will undoubtedly increase those odds. However, my preferred view remains that BTC has bottomed and is now working through a corrective 2nd wave that sets it up for the next launch to $75K. A breakout above Saturdays $48788 high tells me the current three waves down pattern has been completed, which increases the odds of a new impulse higher tremendously.

*Please remember, my work is ~70% reliable and ~90% accurate. Plenty enough to give my premium crypto trading members an edge. But we must, therefore, have realistic expectations and not expect perfection and zero bad calls in a dynamic, stochastic, probabilistic environment. Therefore, all we can do is anticipate, monitor, and adjust if necessary.

For a look at all of todays economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

Read more:
Bitcoin Update: A Revisit of $29,000 Cannot be Excluded Just Yet - Yahoo Finance

The below is from a recent edition of the Deep Dive, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

The $40,000-plus range has been a key psychological level for the bitcoin price. Since the start of 2020, the bitcoin price has existed at or above $40,000 for 155 days, or 36% of the time. Since all of those 155 days happened in 2021, the price has existed at or above $40,000 on 59% of the days of this year. To dig in further, we can use the UTXO realized price distribution data to get some better context on Monday's price decline and how the $43,460 closing price fits within the bigger picture.

Currently, 21.8% of supply is at or above the closing price level, showing a significant amount of interest for bitcoin changing hands at a higher range. On the other side, 19.4% of supply is above $20,000 and below the closing price with strong support built up in the $31,000 to $43,000 range. Roughly 25% of bitcoin supply exists above $40,000.

Each bar in the charts shows the amount of existing bitcoin that last moved within that price range. For bitcoin to drop below $40,000, we would have to see a significant sell-off in the market with many short-term investors realizing losses alongside a bigger structural change to long-term holders that accumulated in that 19.4% supply middle range.

Source: Glassnode

Source: Glassnode

Source: Coinmetrics

Another way to view potential losses in the market is through the percentage of bitcoin supply in profit. Over the last few weeks, the percentage supply in profit has dropped 13% with most of that decline happening last night. We saw much lower levels at 66% back in July this year right before the 70% price increase from $29,000.

Source: Glassnode

If we do see a further bitcoin price move to the downside in the short term, there looks to be plenty of room for long-term holders in the market to absorb it. This week, we're keeping a close watch on derivatives market dynamics and macroeconomic conditions.

See more here:
Why The Bitcoin Price Is Staying Above $40,000 - Bitcoin Magazine

A crypto investment firm is launching two new products that aim to offer accredited investors the opportunity to add crypto exposure with less of the market's breakneck volatility.

Cambrian Asset Management, a California-based investment firm with more than $200 million in assets under its management, announced this week its so-called Cambrian Bitcoin Systematic Trust and Cambrian Ethereum Systematic Trust products. Unlike existing products, like Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, Cambrian's new funds plan to manage down risk in bitcoin and ether's price in addition to offer exposure.

We are excited to offer a new way of investing in digital assets through the launch of these newTrusts, said Martin Green, Co-CIO and CEO of Cambrian. Investors have asked us many times ifthey can use our systems to actively manage their Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure to protectagainst the material drawdowns that are endemic to digital assets markets."

Green's Cambrian has been leveraging so-called quantitative trading strategies and more than 100 billion market data points to return an outsized return to investors. As reported by Bloomberg, the fund returned 76% for its investors from the beginning of 2021 through the end of August. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has returned 62%. At the same time, the fund has suppressed "downside volatility by greater than 70%," a press release notes.

That could be a welcomed feature for investors looking for exposure to a market that frequently sees cascading liquidations trigger more than 50% drawdowns.

In an interview with The Block, Green said the two new trust products could serve as a foundation for further products, which could offer accredited investors exposure to a wide range of assets. Potentially, Cambrian could open those products to retail investors with the proper regulatory approvals and corporate partnerships.

More:
Crypto hedge fund launches actively managed ether and bitcoin trusts - The Block Crypto

While bitcoin continues to become more scarce every day, the most popular set of physical bitcoins, crafted by Mike Caldwell from 2011 to 2013, have become far scarcer than their digital counterparts. As of September 18, 2021, there are now less than 20,000 active bitcoins from the Casascius physical bitcoin collection.

Bitcoin has become a well-known technology and in the early years a number of people and companies deployed concepts called physical bitcoins. Essentially, a group or individual would fabricate a coin with the bitcoin symbol etched on it and the coin would also hold digital BTC hidden within the coins body.

Its safe to say that the Casascius physical bitcoin collection created by Mike Caldwell is the most popular collection to date, and these rare physical bitcoins are sold for much more than the face value of the digital bitcoin they hold.

Casascius bitcoins sport a holographic tamper-resistant sticker on one side of the coin, and if the sticker is peeled, the digital bitcoins private key is revealed. Caldwell crafted both coins and bars that held loaded bitcoin (BTC) and created series 1 (1-1,000 BTC), series 2 (0.5-500 BTC + the DIY Storage Bars), and series 3 (0.5-1 BTC).

Unfortunately, the U.S. government forced Caldwell to stop minting Casascius bitcoins with loaded BTC on them. By the end of Caldwells tenure making these coins, he managed to mint around 27,920 Casascius bitcoins with various increments of loaded BTC. Over the years owners have redeemed the loaded value held on these Casascius bitcoins in a process called a peel.

On December 23, 2019, Bitcoin.com News reported on a 100 BTC gold bar that was peeled or redeemed. This means the digital BTC value was spent by the owner and the physical bar is empty with zero digital value left. Ten years after the first Casascius bitcoins were minted, theres under 20K left that are active with loaded BTC.

According to statistics from casasciustracker.com, on September 18, 2021, theres approximately 19.92K active Casascius bitcoins waiting to be peeled. So far 8,009 coins or bars have been redeemed over the last ten years and theres approximately 43K BTC left unpeeled worth over $2 billion.

48,169 BTC worth $2.3 billion has been spent by the peel process. Furthermore, there are some lucky owners who still have yet to peel 1,000 BTC bars or coins worth $48 million using todays exchange rates. For instance, out of the six 1,000 BTC Series 1 Casascius bitcoins, only 2 have been redeemed so far.

In that same series, Caldwell minted 16 1,000 BTC bars and so far 87.50% or 14 bars have been redeemed. There were 81 Series 2 100 BTC coins (worth $4.8M each) minted by Caldwell and to date 47 coins or 58.02% of the BTC has been redeemed from that minted set.

Today, the Casascius physical bitcoin collection has gathered significant numismatic value and the coins and bars are considered coveted bitcoiner collectibles. Even peeled Casascius bitcoins still hold value and some of them are being sold for $1,999 (for a 2012 piece). A loaded silver Casascius physical bitcoin with 0.1 BTC ($4,834) from 2013 is selling for $20,000 today. A rare unloaded set of 125 Casascius physical bitcoins made of aluminum is selling for $4,995.

What do you think about the fact that there are now less than 20,000 Casascius bitcoins left active today? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, casasciustracker.com

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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$2 Billion Worth of Unpeeled Casascius Physical Bitcoins: There's Less Than 20000 Coins Left Active Featured Bitcoin News - Bitcoin News