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In 1981, physicist Richard Feynman first theorized the creation of quantum computers that harnessed the principles of quantum physics to process calculations that would take standard computers millennia or longer to compute. Over the next four decades, however, research failed to advance significantly enough for the machines to have much impact on society.

But breakthroughs in 2023 signaled that quantum computers have embarked on a new era, one that may unleash a technological revolution full of possibilitiessome good and some bad. On the positive side, quantum computers could lead to the development of new drugs to combat cancer. On the negative side, however, they can break the encryption we use multiple times per day for everything from sending texts to financial transactions.

But this isnt the first quantum race in history that pitted the U.S. against its adversariesand the past provides a guide for how the U.S. can win the coming computing revolution. In the 1940s, a quantum race produced the creation of nuclear weapons and unleashed a technology explosion. Crucially, the U.S. won the competition to harness the new technology. Not only did American scientists create the first nuclear weapons, but advancements in lasers and in chips for computers made the U.S. the home for global innovation.

That only happened, however, because policymakers supplied the funding and support necessary to ensure superiority. In 2024, by contrast, a key quantum funding bill has stalled while allies and adversaries are sinking billions into quantum research and development. Without action, history shows that the U.S. risks falling behind especially in leadership for the revolutionary power of quantum technologies.

Quantum physics developed in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s. As World War II erupted in the 1930s and 1940s, German, Hungarian, and Italian physicists escaped to the U.S. Many of them joined J. Robert Oppenheimer and his American colleagues in the Manhattan Projectwhich birthed the atomic bomb and simultaneously elevated the U.S. as the home for quantum science.

In the ensuing decades, Feynman and other scientists who cut their teeth on the Manhattan Project inspired profound innovation from quantum physics that became woven into the fabric of American life. The first quantum revolution created nuclear weapons and energy, global positioning systems, lasers, magnetic resonance imaging, and the chips that would power the rise of the personal computer.

Read More: Quantum Computers Could Solve Countless ProblemsAnd Create a Lot of New Ones

Although many countries like the Soviet Union built nuclear weapons, none rivaled the U.S. in pioneering innovation. The Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957 and the space race produced an explosion of federal funding for science and education that was at the root of American success. Further, the Department of Defense provided crucial sponsorship for visionary, but risky, research that developed the internet, stealth capabilities, and voice assistants like Siri. This combination propelled the U.S. to unparalleled innovation heights in the decades after World War II.

The technologies born from the first quantum revolution were at the core of American national defense, and also reshaped civilian life in the U.S., most especially through the development of personal computers and the Information Revolution.

But even as personal computers were beginning to revolutionize American life in 1981, Feynman insisted in a pivotal lecture that something more was possible. He argued that a quantum computer with processing power magnitudes greater than even the highest performing computer then in existence offered the only way to unlock the true knowledge of the world. Feynman admitted, however, that building such a machine required staggering complexity.

The ensuing four decades have proved him correct on the obstacles involved. Designing a quantum computer required tremendous advances in theory as well as materials and components. Since the 1980s, progress has crept along, and many joked that quantum computers would always be 10 to 20 years away.

In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor discovered an algorithm that created a method for a quantum computer to calculate the large prime numbers used in encryption. Despite this breakthrough, the pace of developments since Shors discovery has remained glacial. Persistent funding from the National Security Agency and the Department of Defense especially the former has sustained innovation, but the results have been uneven, because scientists have been unable to build a quantum computer that wasnt plagued by errors.

In the past 10 years, private technology companies such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft have made significant investments in quantum computing, which have pushed the field to new heights of maturity and accelerated a global race for quantum dominance one with major national security and cybersecurity implications.

Even so, todays quantum computers still have yet to outperform standard computers due to regular errors caused by radiation, heat, or improper materials. These errors make quantum computers useless for things like, for example, designing new drugs, because scientists cant replicate an experiment accurately. But all of that is changing quickly.

Advances by IBM and a Harvard team in 2023 demonstrated that error correction is on the horizon and the era of quantum utility has arrived. In July 2023, IBM announced peer reviewed evidence from experiments that indicated the company had made strides in mitigating the errors that have long plagued quantum computing. A few months later in December, a Harvard team and the company QuEra published encouraging results from experiments that showed they too had developed a quantum process with enhanced error-correction.

Read More: How the AI Revolution Will Reshape the World

But its not only American companies and universities trying to figure out how to mitigate the errors that have limited the possibilities of quantum computers. Over the last 15 years, Chinese physicists have undertaken an ambitious program aimed at making their country the world leader in quantum technologies. One estimate pegs China which has invested over $15 billion in the project as a leader or near equal to the U.S. in this new realm of science. In 2023, results from experiments suggested that Chinese physicists were notching impressive achievements that may enable them to construct a quantum computer that could outpace those developed in the U.S.

The consequences of Chinese superiority in this realm would be seismic. The U.S.s foremost adversary would then be able to crack the encryption Americans use every day for secure internet traffic and messaging, and which the U.S. government and its allies use to protect secret communications. One organization projects that the world has a mere six years before this capacity exists. Other estimates insist that date is as far as 10 years away. But it is coming fast.

That means the U.S. has to get out ahead of this impending technology to forestall disastrous consequences in every realm of American life. In May 2022 the White House announced plans to prepare the nation for post-quantum encryption alongside efforts being undertaken by private companies like Apple and Google. But Congress failed to renew a landmark federal funding bill for quantum research and development in 2023. Meanwhile, China and European countries are not flinching at devoting billions to quantum.

Quantum computing breakthroughs in 2023 herald a bright future that will transform life and economics. Technology sits on the cusp of fulfilling Feynmans vision and understanding the world and universe unlike ever before. An error-correcting quantum computer would launch the second quantum revolution, and a race is on to preserve the U.S.s leadership in science for one of the 21st centurys most prized technologies. To win that race, the federal government needs to make a concerted push to sustain American preeminence in quantum computing and other quantum technologies like sensing. Thats how the U.S. won the first quantum revolution and the stakes are too high not to learn from this past triumph.

The opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of LLNL, LLNS, DOE, NNSA, or the U.S. government.

Brandon Kirk Williams is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Made by History takes readers beyond the headlines with articles written and edited by professional historians. Learn more about Made by History at TIME here. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of TIME editors.

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History Shows How to Win the Quantum Computing Race - TIME

A photo shows a 300-millimeter Intel silicon spin qubit wafer. In May 2024, Nature published an Intel research paper, Probing single electrons across 300-mm spin qubit wafers, demonstrating state-of-the-art uniformity, fidelity and measurement statistics of spin qubits. (Credit: Intel Corporation)

Research published in Nature demonstrates high qubit control fidelity and uniformity in single-electron control.

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today, Nature published an Intel research paper, Probing single electrons across 300-mm spin qubit wafers, demonstrating state-of-the-art uniformity, fidelity and measurement statistics of spin qubits. The industry-leading research opens the door for the mass production and continued scaling of silicon-based quantum processors, all of which are requirements for building a fault-tolerant quantum computer.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240501215284/en/

A photo shows a 300-millimeter Intel silicon spin qubit wafer. In May 2024, Nature published an Intel research paper, Probing single electrons across 300-mm spin qubit wafers, demonstrating state-of-the-art uniformity, fidelity and measurement statistics of spin qubits. (Credit: Intel Corporation)

Quantum hardware researchers from Intel developed a 300-millimeter cryogenic probing process to collect high-volume data on the performance of spin qubit devices across whole wafers using complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) manufacturing techniques.

The improvements to qubit device yield combined with the high-throughput testing process enabled researchers to obtain significantly more data to analyze uniformity, an important step needed to scale up quantum computers. Researchers also found that single-electron devices from these wafers perform well when operated as spin qubits, achieving 99.9% gate fidelity. This fidelity is the highest reported for qubits made with all-CMOS-industry manufacturing.

The small size of spin qubits, measuring about 100 nanometers across, makes them denser than other qubit types (e.g., superconducting), enabling more complex quantum computers to be made on a single chip of the same size. The fabrication approach was conducted using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which allowed Intel to achieve these tight dimensions while also manufacturing in high volume.

Realizing fault-tolerant quantum computers with millions of uniform qubits will require highly reliable fabrication processes. Drawing upon its legacy in transistor manufacturing expertise, Intel is at the forefront of creating silicon spin qubits similar to transistors by leveraging its cutting-edge 300-millimeter CMOS manufacturing techniques, which routinely produce billions of transistors per chip.

Building on these findings, Intel plans to continue to make advances in using these techniques to add more interconnect layers to fabricate 2D arrays with increased qubit count and connectivity, as well as demonstrating high-fidelity two-qubit gates on its industry manufacturing process. However, the main priority will continue to be scaling quantum devices and improving performance with its next generation quantum chip.

Read the complete findings in Nature.

About Intel

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is an industry leader, creating world-changing technology that enables global progress and enriches lives. Inspired by Moores Law, we continuously work to advance the design and manufacturing of semiconductors to help address our customers greatest challenges. By embedding intelligence in the cloud, network, edge and every kind of computing device, we unleash the potential of data to transform business and society for the better. To learn more about Intels innovations, go to newsroom.intel.com and intel.com.

Intel Corporation. Intel, the Intel logo and other Intel marks are trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries. Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240501215284/en/

Laura Stadler 1-619-346-1170 laura.stadler@intel.com

Source: Intel

Released May 1, 2024 11:00 AM EDT

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Intel Takes Next Step Toward Building Scalable Silicon-Based Quantum Processors - Investor Relations :: Intel Corporation (INTC)

In the battle to build the worlds first useful quantum computers, one company has taken an entirely different approach to the other frontrunners. The conventional approach is to gradually increase the size and power of these devices and test as you go.

But PsiQuantum, a startup based in Palo Alto, California, is gambling on the opposite approach. The company is investing heavily in quantum technologies that are compatible with chip-making fabrication plants that already exist. By using these facilities, their goal is to mass-produce powerful silicon-based quantum computers from the very beginning.

This week, they reveal how well this approach is going and discuss the challenges that still lie ahead.

Founded in 2016, PsiQuantum hit the headlines in 2021 when it raised $700 million to pursue its goal of building useful quantum computers within a decade. This week, it announced a similar injection from the Australian government bring its total funding to some $1.3 billion. That makes it one of the best funded startups in history.

The excitement is largely because of PsiQuantums unique approach. A key decision is its choice of quantum bits or qubits. Other companies are focusing on superconducting qubits, ion traps, neutral atoms, quantum dots and so on.

PsiQuantum has opted to use photons. The advantage is that photons do not easily interact with the environment, so their quantum nature is relatively stable. Thats important for computation.

Paradoxically, this reluctance to interact is also the main disadvantage of photons. Its hard to make them interact with each other in a way that processes information.

But various groups have demonstrated optical quantum computing and PsiQuantum was founded by researchers in this area from Imperial College London and the University of Bristol.

Optical quantum computing works by creating photons or pairs of them, guiding them through channels carved into silicon where they can interact and then measuring their properties with highly specialized detectors.

PsiQuantum intends to do all this with silicon wafers. Their bold idea was that we already know how to make silicon chips on a vast scale by mass-production. Chip fabrication plants cost billions to build so there is a significant advantage in being able to use this current technology.

And by making bigger, more densely packed chips, optical quantum computers can scale relatively easily. Unlike other designs where scaling will be much harder.

So all the focus has been on how to make the manufacture optical quantum computing chips compatible with conventional fabrication plants.

Thats not as easy as it sounds. So this weeks paper outlining their advances has been eagerly awaited.

The team have reached numerous goals. We modified an established silicon photonics manufacturing flow to include high-performance single photon detection and photon pair generation, they say. To our knowledge, this is the first realization of an integrated photonic technology platform capable of on-chip generation, manipulation, and detection of photonic qubits.

But there are significant steps ahead. PsiQuantum still needs to develop a variety of next generation technologies to make large scale photonic quantum computation feasible. It will be necessary to further reduce Silicon Nitride materials and component losses, improve filter performance, and increase detector efficiency to push overall photon loss and fidelity, say the team.

For example, the on-chip photon detectors that are built into waveguides need to be able to count individual photons. The on-chip photon waveguides need to be lower loss. And perhaps the biggest challenge is in developing high speed optoelectronic switches that can rapidly reconfigure optical circuits.

PsiQuantum is making these switches out of barium titanate (BTO), a material that must be incorporated into the fabrication process. We have developed a proprietary process for the growth of high-quality BTO films using molecular beam epitaxy, compatible with foundry processes, they say.

All that looks impressive, but the paper does not include a demonstration of quantum computing itself.

Perhaps its too early to expect that. To be fair, basic quantum computation with photons has long been possible with these kinds of systems at a small scale.

The singular intent of our development is a useful fault-tolerant quantum computer, they say. PsiQuantum has also said elsewhere that its goal is to achieve this by 2029.

Of course, it faces stiff competition from other manufacturers of quantum computers. Itll be an exciting race and the (quantum) clock is ticking.

Ref: A manufacturable platform for photonic quantum computing : arxiv.org/abs/2404.17570

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The $1 Billion Bet on Quantum Computers That Process Light - DISCOVER Magazine