Compounding the danger is the lack of anyAI regulation. Instead, unaccountable technology conglomerates, such as Google and Meta, have assumed the roles of judge and jury in all things AI. They are silencing dissenting voices, including their own engineers who warn of the dangers.
The worlds failure to rein in the demon of AIor rather, the crude technologies masquerading as suchshould serve to be a profound warning. There is an even more powerful emerging technology with the potential to wreak havoc, especially if it is combined with AI:quantum computing. We urgently need to understand this technologys potential impact, regulate it, and prevent it from getting into the wrong hands before it is too late. The world must not repeat the mistakes it made by refusing to regulate AI.
Although still in its infancy, quantum computing operates on a very different basis from todays semiconductor-based computers. If thevarious projectsbeing pursued around the world succeed, these machines will be immensely powerful, performing tasks in seconds that would takeconventional computersmillions of years to conduct.
Because of the technologys immense power and revolutionary applications, quantum computing projects are likely part of defense and other government research already.
Semiconductors represent information as a series of 1s and 0sthats why we call it digital technology. Quantum computers, on the other hand, use a unit of computing called aqubit. A qubit can hold values of 1 and 0 simultaneously by incorporating a counterintuitive property in quantum physics called superposition. (If you find this confusing, youre in good companyit can be hard to grasp even for experienced engineers.) Thus, two qubits could represent the sequences 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0, all in parallel and all at the same instant. That allows a vast increase in computing power, which grows exponentially with each additional qubit.
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If quantum physics leaves the experimental stage and makes it into everyday applications, it will find many uses and change many aspects of life. With their power to quickly crunch immense amounts of data that would overwhelm any of todays systems,quantum computerscould potentially enable better weather forecasting, financial analysis, logistics planning, space research, and drug discovery. Some actors will very likely use them for nefarious purposes, compromising bank records, private communications, and passwords on every digital computer in the world. Todays cryptography encodes data in large combinations of numbers that are impossible to crack within a reasonable time using classic digital technology. But quantum computerstaking advantage of quantum mechanical phenomena, such as superposition, entanglement, and uncertaintymay potentially be able to try out combinations so rapidly that they could crack encryptions by brute force almost instantaneously.
To be clear, quantum computing is still in an embryonic stagethough where, exactly, we can only guess. Because of the technologys immense potential power and revolutionary applications, quantum computing projects are likely part of defense and other government research already. This kind of research isshrouded in secrecy, and there are a lot of claims and speculation about milestones being reached. China, France, Russia, Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, Canada, and India are known to be pursuing projects. In the United States, contenders include IBM, Google, Intel, and Microsoft as well as various start-ups, defense contractors, and universities.
Despite the lack of publicity, there have been credible demonstrations of some basic applications, includingquantum sensorsable to detect and measure electromagnetic signals. One such sensor was used to precisely measureEarths magnetic fieldfrom the International Space Station.
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In another experiment, Dutch researchers teleported quantum information across a rudimentaryquantum communication network. Instead of using conventional optical fibers, the scientists used three small quantum processors to instantly transfer quantum bits from a sender to a receiver. These experiments havent shown practical applications yet, but they could lay the groundwork for a future quantum internet, where quantum data can be securely transported across a network of quantum computers faster than the speed of light. So far, thats only been possible in the realm of science fiction.
The Biden administration considers the risk of losing the quantum computing race imminent and dire enough that it issuedtwo presidential directivesin May: one to place theNational Quantum Initiativeadvisory committee directly under the authority of the White House and another to directgovernment agenciesto ensure U.S. leadership in quantum computing while mitigating the potential security risks quantum computing poses to cryptographic systems.
Experiments are also working tocombinequantum computing with AI to transcend traditional computers limits. Today, large machine-learning models take months to train on digital computers because of the vast number of calculations that must be performedOpenAIs GPT-3, for example, has 175 billion parameters. When these models grow into the trillions of parametersa requirement for todays dumb AI to become smartthey will take even longer to train. Quantum computers could greatly accelerate this process while also using less energy and space. In March 2020, Google launchedTensorFlowQuantum, one of the first quantum-AI hybrid platforms that takes the search for patterns and anomalies in huge amounts of data to the next level.Combined with quantum computing, AI could, in theory, lead to even more revolutionary outcomes than the AI sentience that critics have been warning about.
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Given the potential scope and capabilities ofquantum technology, it is absolutely crucial not to repeat the mistakes made with AIwhere regulatory failure has given the world algorithmic bias that hypercharges human prejudices, social media that favors conspiracy theories, and attacks on the institutions of democracy fueled by AI-generated fake news and social media posts. The dangers lie in the machines ability to make decisions autonomously, with flaws in the computer code resulting in unanticipated, often detrimental, outcomes. In 2021, the quantum community issued acall for actionto urgently address these concerns. In addition, critical public and private intellectual property on quantum-enabling technologies must be protected fromtheft and abuseby the United States adversaries.
There are national defense issues involved as well. In security technology circles, the holy grail is whats called acryptanalytically relevant quantum computera system capable of breaking much of the public-key cryptography that digital systems around the world use, which would enable blockchain cracking, for example. Thats a very dangerous capability to have in the hands of an adversarial regime.
Experts warn thatChinaappears to have a lead in various areas of quantum technology, such as quantum networks and quantum processors. Two of the worlds most powerful quantum computers were beenbuilt in China, and as far back as 2017, scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei built the worlds firstquantum communication networkusing advanced satellites. To be sure, these publicly disclosed projects are scientific machines to prove the concept, with relatively little bearing on the future viability of quantum computing. However, knowing that all governments are pursuing the technology simply to prevent an adversary from being first, these Chinese successes could well indicate an advantage over the United States and the rest of the West.
Beyond accelerating research, targeted controls on developers, users, and exports should therefore be implemented without delay. Patents, trade secrets, and relatedintellectual property rightsshould be tightly secureda return to the kind of technology control that was a major element of security policy during the Cold War. The revolutionary potential of quantum computing raises the risks associated withintellectual property theftby China and other countries to a new level.
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Finally, to avoid theethical problemsthat went so horribly wrong with AI and machine learning, democratic nations need to institute controls that both correspond to the power of the technology as well as respect democratic values, human rights, and fundamental freedoms. Governments must urgently begin to think about regulations,standards, and responsible usesand learn from the way countries handled or mishandled other revolutionary technologies, including AI, nanotechnology, biotechnology, semiconductors, and nuclear fission. The United States and otherdemocratic nationsmust not make the same mistake they made with AIand prepare for tomorrows quantum era today.
About the authors
Vivek Wadhwais a columnist atForeign Policy, an entrepreneur, and the co-author ofFrom Incremental to Exponential: How Large Companies Can See the Future and Rethink Innovation.Twitter:@wadhwa
Mauritz Kopis a fellow and visiting scholar at Stanford University.Twitter:@MauritzKop
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