Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week pressuring key resistance as the May monthly close looms.
BTC price action is keeping bulls on their toes, as old all-time highs prove hard to flip to resistance. Can $69,000 fall by June?
A quiet start to the week sees Memorial Day in the United States keep institutional activity off the table until May 28.
Later, however, macroeconomic catalysts heat up in the form of U.S. data prints, which, as always, form a key focal point for crypto and risk assets.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has its own hurdles to contend with consolidation below all-time highs has been ongoing for over two months, and a resolution of the status quo remains elusive.
Plenty of optimistic BTC price predictions are circulating, some including a six-figure target for BTC/USD in 2024, but concerns of a deeper retracement linger in the background.
As the market sits at a critical point, Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors set to potentially move them as May comes to an end.
Bitcoin saw a classic spate of weekend price action, heading above $69,000 but retracing after the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingViewconfirms.
In so doing, it effectively closed its latest gap in CME Group Bitcoin futures markets even with the U.S. closed for the Memorial Day holiday.
Basic weekend price action so far, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a response on X (formerly Twitter).
The weekly close, which came in at around $68,500, was nonetheless Bitcoins strongest since the start of April.
Commenting on the latest developments, trading resource Material Indicators stressed the need to turn $69,000 into solid support.
A green Weekly close for BTC is met with another failed attempt to R/S flip $69k and a new Trend Precognition (down) signal on the W chart, part of an X post read, referring to one of Material Indicators proprietary trading tools.
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows key areas of liquidity built up around spot price leaving traders to guess which will be taken first.
At the time of writing on May 27, $68,100 and $69,800 were key levels of interest, the latter in the middle of a cloud of liquidity across order books.
Bitcoin aims to consolidate in these levels, Michal van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, summarized on the day.
Where Bitcoin heads once it leaves its current range is a major preoccupation for some market observers.
Consensus is forming over a break to the upside, but how high the market will go remains a topic of debate.
As Cointelegraph reported, calls for $95,000 in June and even $150,000 by the end of the year are being reinforced by their respective sources.
Popular commentator BitQuant, the originator of the former prediction, last week suggested that BTC price dips within the range should be ignored.
The only thing I'm confident about is that Bitcoin is going to $95K, part of another X post insisted.
Daan Crypto trades meanwhile acknowledged the historical precedent is on bulls side long periods of consolidation below all-time highs have resulted in bull market breakouts in previous BTC price cycles.
Has now been trading against its previous cycle high for ~11 weeks. In 2017 this took ~4 weeks. In 2013 this took ~13 weeks, he calculated.
Some, however, still have a larger correction as their base case.
Among them is popular trader Credible Crypto, who continues to eye the area around $60,000 as likely coming next.
Into the weekend, Material Indicators added that it was fully prepared for $60,000 to make a comeback.
Currently not much liquidity based sentiment for sub $60k so expecting to range for an extended period of time, it concluded.
For popular trader and analyst, the latest Bitcoin block subsidy halving is not priced in.
In a YouTube video last week, Rekt Capital argued that despite having come and gone last month, the halving remains an extremely relevant BTC price catalyst.
Bitcoin, he says, is still in a post-halving re-accumulation phase and the consolidation it brings has historically lasted for up to 160 days.
The longer we can consolidate here, the better for Bitcoin, the video stated.
Rekt Capital nonetheless said that upside continuation inevitably ensues once such phases are complete.
For this most parabolic phase of the cycle, he continued, a BTC price target of approximately $150,000 is appropriate.
This weekend, meanwhile, he suggested short-term sideways BTC price action may need several weeks to resolve.
With U.S. markets closed until May 28, Bitcoin has little impetus for major outside volatility during Wall Street hours.
The Asia trading session produced no surprises, and attention thus focuses on the end of the week.
Here, U.S. macro data prints return, headlined by the Producer Price Index (PCE) known as the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge.
The mood when it comes to risk assets benefitting from loosening Fed policy remains conservative. Interest rate cuts are not expected until September or later, and other inflation data remains mixed.
Despite this, U.S. stocks continue to hit all-time highs.
Short but busy week ahead, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote while acknowledging the stocks trend in its weekly macro diary dates entry on X.
Commenting on tendencies on both stocks and Bitcoin, trading firm Mosaic asset saw mixed conditions ultimately favoring risk-on sentiment.
Daily momentum indicators like the S&P 500s MACD and RSI are extended, indicating the potential for mean reversion lower. While I would not be surprised to see a partial retracement of the recent gains in the stock market, I expect any downside is just a pause in the bull market, it wrote in one edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, on May 23.
Mosaic likewise swayed toward an upside breakout for BTC/USD to come.
Risky asset classes are particularly sensitive to easing conditions, which is why Im closely following the action in Bitcoin and crypto mining stocks for additional confirmation that the bull market is intact, it continued, noting Bitcoins two-month consolidation.
When it comes to buying the dip, some Bitcoin investor cohorts are wasting no time below $69,000.
Related: Traders hope for insane pump as altcoins approach key resistance levels
In focus this week are Bitcoin whales, the largest of these, who have been especially active as price has advanced and stayed near all-time highs.
Bitcoin whales have been buying like never before, Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, commented alongside data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
The data shows the balance of whale addresses active within the last 24 hours at nearly half a million BTC easily the largest on record.
Cointelegraph continues to report on whale interest in Bitcoin, with CryptoQuant describing them as being in acceleration mode earlier this month.
Bitcoin demand growth seems to be stabilizing after being in a decelerating trend since March, it found.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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