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Stack Overflow explored the "hype cycle" by asking thousands of real developers whether nascent tech trends have really proven themselves, and how they feel about them. "With AI-assisted technologies in the news, this survey's aim was to get a baseline for perceived utility and impact" of various technologies, writes Stack Overflow's senior analyst for market research and insights.

The results? "Open source is clearly positioned as the north star to all other technologies, lighting the way to the chosen land of future technology prosperity."Technologies such as blockchain or AI may dominate tech media headlines, but are they truly trusted in the eyes of developers and technologists? On a scale of zero (Experimental) to 10 (Proven), the top proven technologies by mean score are open source with 6.9, cloud computing with 6.5, and machine learning with 5.9. The lowest scoring were quantum computing with 3.7, nanotechnology with 4.5, and low code/no code with 4.6....

[When asked for the next technology that everyone will use], AI comes in at the top of the list by a large margin, but our three top proven selections (open source, machine learning, cloud computing) follow after....

It's one thing to believe a technology has a prosperous future, it's another to believe a technology deserves a prosperous future. Alongside the emergent sentiment, respondents also scored the same technologies on a zero (Negative Impact) to 10 (Positive Impact) scale for impact on the world. The top positive mean scoring technologies were open source with 7.2, sustainable technologies with 6.6 and machine learning with 6.5; the top negative mean scoring technologies were low code/no code, InnerSource, and blockchain all with 5.3. Seeing low code/no code and blockchain score so low here makes sense because both could be associated with questionable job security in certain developer careers; however it's surprising that AI is not there with them on the negative end of the spectrum. AI-assisted technology had an above average mean score for positive impact (6.2) and the percent positive score is not that far off from those machine learning and cloud computing (28% vs. 33% or 32%).

Possibly what we are seeing here as far as why developers would not rate AI more negatively than technologies like low code/no code or blockchain but do give it a higher emergent score is that they understand the technology better than a typical journalist or think tank analyst. AI-assisted tech is the second highest chosen technology on the list for wanting more hands-on training among respondents, just below machine learning. Developers understand the distinction between media buzz around AI replacing humans in well-paying jobs and the possibility of humans in better quality jobs when AI and machine learning technologies mature. Low code/no code for the same reason probably doesn't deserve to be rated so low, but it's clear that developers are not interested in learning more about it.

Open source software is the overall choice for most positive and most proven scores in sentiment compared to the set of technologies we polled our users about. One quadrant of their graph shows three proven technologies which developers still had negative feelings about: biometrics, serverless computing, and rapid prototyping tools. (With "Internet of Things" straddling the line between positive and negative feelings.)

And there were two technologies which 10% of respondents thought would never be widely used in the future: low code/no code and blockchain. "Post-FTX scandal, it's clear that most developers do not feel blockchain is positive or proven," the analyst writes.

"However there is still desire to learn as more respondents want training with blockchain than cloud computing. There's a reason to believe in the direct positive impact of a given technology when it pays the bills."

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Stack Overflow Survey Finds Most-Proven Technologies: Open ... - Slashdot