Key Takeaways
The memecoin sector has been the best performing one in 2024, leaving behind other promising sectors such as gaming and AI tokens. In the previous bullish cycle, the dominant memecoins were part of the Ethereum ecosystem. In the current one, Solana memecoins are attempting to take Ethereums throne.
Specifically analyzing Ethereum memecoins, it seems that newer creations such as FLOKI and PEPE are the ones leading the charge, leaving more established ones such as DOGE and SHIB behind. Is this trend true, and if so, will it continue for the rest of 2024? Regarding FLOKI and PEPE, which will be the one at the forefront of this increase?
The daily time frame chart shows that PEPE has fallen inside a descending parallel channel since its high of $0.0000108 on March 14. The decrease led to a low of $0.0000039 on April 13.
The fact that the decrease was perfectly inside the channel suggests the decrease is part of an A-B-C corrective structure (black). In the bigger picture, the wave count suggests it marked wave four in a five-wave upward movement (white).
The PEPE price has increased significantly since its bottom (green icon). PEPE broke out from the channel yesterday and now attempts to validate it as support (green circle).
The most likely target for the top of the increase is between $0.0000150-$0.0000175. The target is found by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) and by giving wave five the same length as waves one and three combined (white).
The FLOKI price action and wave count is almost a carbon copy of PEPE. FLOKI has completed an A-B-C correction since March 14, in what is likely wave four (white). Currently, FLOKI attempts to break out from its own descending parallel channel (red icon). Doing so will confirm wave five is underway.
The main difference between the price movement of the two is that while PEPE has already broken out from its channel, FLOKI still attempts to do so. In context of their future movement, this could cause PEPE to be the one to take the reins and reach a new yearly high first.
If the price breaks out, a likely target for the top of the upward movement is at $0.00043. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates the target. If reached, it will mark a new yearly high.
Previously, we noted that in the current memecoin bullish cycle, FLOKI and PEPE are replacing DOGE and SHIB as the dominant memecoinsdespite their smaller market caps. This holds true when analyzing the movement in 2024.
Since the start of the year, PEPE (orange) has increased by 420% while FLOKI (red) by 400%. In contrast, SHIB (white) and DOGE (blue) have increased by 133% and 63%, respectively.
While the shape of the movement has been nearly identical, the magnitude of the PEPE & FLOKI increases is much larger. Additionally, the new memecoins have been the first to move, followed by SHIB & DOGE.
The trend has held even in the short-term recovery. All four memecoins reached a bottom in 2024, but they have recovered at a very different rate. PEPE has increased by 55% since the low, followed by FLOKI at 46%.
On the other hand, SHIB has increased by 23%, while DOGE by only 5%.
So, the performance of the four Ethereum memecoins confirms that FLOKI and PEPE have replaced SHIB and DOGE as the dominant memecoins this cycle. This holds true when analyzing the performance in 2024 and the recovery from the recent dip.
The notable PEPE and FLOKI price increases in both the entirety of 2024 and since April 14 suggest they are the two memecoins leading the Ethereum ecosystem. Their prices are both primed to continue their increase and reach new yearly highs in May. Due to the breakout from its channel, PEPE is more likely to do so first.
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