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Bitcoin has soared since news broke of BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing last month, lifting the price of other major coins ethereum, BNBBNB and XRPXRP, and taken by many as a sign the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be softening its long-hostile attitude to such ETFs (potentially following the IMF in flipping on bitcoin and crypto).

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Now, after crypto exchange Coinbase has seen its share price surge after being named on the refiled spot bitcoin ETF applications of major asset managers BlackRock and Fidelity, analysts at the brokerage Bernstein have said they think the probability a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF will be approved is fairly highcalling the SEC's opposition to a spot bitcoin ETF hard to hold.

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Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the SEC is likely to soon approve a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, according to a report seen by Coindesk. However, the researchers noted the SEC has already approved futures-based bitcoin ETFs, as well as a leverage-based futures ETFs, due to futures pricing coming from a regulated exchange like the CME.

The SEC is worried that a spot bitcoin ETF would not be dependable because the "spot exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) are not under its regulation, and thus spot prices are not reliable and prone to manipulation."

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported the SEC believed the recent flurry of spot bitcoin ETF bids were "inadequate," prompting some of the world's largest asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, to refile the applications after adding they would enter into surveillance-sharing agreements with Coinbase. Coinbase stock has rocketed 10% on the news, taking its year-to-date gains to over 130%.

Bernstein's report pointed to crypto asset manager Grayscale's failed attempts to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that's currently before an appeals court after the company challenged the SEC's decision.

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"The court did not sound convinced that the futures price is not derived from the spot price, and thus to allow a futures-based ETF and not allow spot sounds like a difficult pill to swallow for the courts," Bernstein analysts wrote.

"SEC would rather bring in a regulated bitcoin ETF led by more mainstream Wall Street participants and with surveillance from existing regulated exchanges, than having to deal with a Grayscale OTC product filling the institutional gap."

Others have echoed Bernstein's optimism that a long-awaited U.S. spot bitcoin ETF could soon be approved.

"We have very strong news [of the] BlackRock bitcoin ETF likely being approved," crypto analyst Alex Krger said on a fellow analysts' YouTube video, adding he thinks a positive decision has not yet been priced in by the bitcoin price and once the bitcoin price "breaks, it should keep on running."

"Its debatable if its going to get approved or notthe probability is debatablethe point is right now we have just heard 20% of this news, and the probability is about 50% if not around 75%. So the point is, on the one hand, the market is not positioned right for this. The other point is that the news is huge and not properly priced in yet."

I am a journalist with significant experience covering technology, finance, economics, and business around the world. As the founding editor of Verdict.co.uk I reported on how technology is changing business, political trends, and the latest culture and lifestyle. I have covered the rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrency since 2012 and have charted its emergence as a niche technology into the greatest threat to the established financial system the world has ever seen and the most important new technology since the internet itself. I have worked and written for CityAM, the Financial Times, and the New Statesman, amongst others. Follow me on Twitter @billybambrough or email me on billyATbillybambrough.com.Disclosure: I occasionally hold some small amount of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

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