Updated April 10, 2023 at 1:18 p.m. EDT|Published April 9, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
Inside Silicon Valleys AI sector, fierce divisions are growing over the impact of a new wave of artificial intelligence: While some argue its imperative to race ahead, others say the technology presents an existential risk.
Those tensions took center stage late last month, when Elon Musk, along with other tech executives and academics, signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause on developing human-competitive AI, citing profound risks to society and humanity. Self-described decision theorist Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the nonprofit Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), went further: AI development needs to be shut down worldwide, he wrote in a Time magazine op-ed, calling for American airstrikes on foreign data centers if necessary.
The policy world didnt seem to know how seriously to heed these warnings. Asked if AI is dangerous, President Biden said Tuesday, It remains to be seen. Could be.
The dystopian visions are familiar to many inside Silicon Valleys insular AI sector, where a small group of strange but influential subcultures have clashed in recent months. One sect is certain AI could kill us all. Another says this technology will empower humanity to flourish if deployed correctly. Others suggest the six-month pause proposed by Musk, who will reportedly launch his own AI lab, was designed to help him catch up.
The subgroups can be fairly fluid, even when they appear contradictory and insiders sometimes disagree on basic definitions.
But these once-fringe worldviews could shape pivotal debates on AI. Here is a quick guide to decoding the ideologies (and financial incentives) behind the factions:
The argument: The phrase AI safety used to refer to practical problems, like making sure self-driving cars dont crash. In recent years, the term sometimes used interchangeably with AI alignment has also been adopted to describe a new field of research to ensure AI systems obey their programmers intentions and prevent the kind of power-seeking AI that might harm humans just to avoid being turned off.
Many have ties to communities like effective altruism, a philosophical movement to maximize doing good in the world. EA, as its known, began by prioritizing causes like global poverty but has pivoted to concerns about the risk from advanced AI. Online forums, like Lesswrong.com or AI Alignment Forum, host heated debates on these issues.
Some adherents also subscribe to a philosophy called longtermism that looks at maximizing good over millions of years. They cite a thought experiment from Nick Bostroms book Superintelligence, which imagines a safe superhuman AI could enable humanity to colonize the stars and create trillions of future people. Building safe artificial intelligence is crucial to secure those eventual lives.
Who is behind it: In recent years, EA-affiliated donors like Open Philanthropy, a foundation started by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and former hedge funder Holden Karnofsky, have helped seed a number of centers, research labs and community-building efforts focused on AI safety and AI alignment. FTX Future Fund, started by crypto executive Sam Bankman-Fried, was another major player until the firm went bankrupt after Bankman-Fried and other executives were indicted on charges of fraud.
How much influence do they have?: Some work at top AI labs like OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic, where this worldview has led to some useful ways of making AI safer for users. A tightknit network of organizations produces research and studies that can be shared more widely, including this 2022 survey that asked machine learning researchers to estimate the probability that human inability to control AI could end humanity. The median response was 10 percent.
AI Impacts, which conducted the study, has received support from four different EA-affiliated organizations, including the Future of Life Institute, which hosted Musks open letter and received its biggest donation from Musk. Center for Humane Technology co-founder Tristan Harris, who once campaigned about the dangers of social media and has now turned his focus to AI, cited the study prominently.
The argument: Its not that this group doesnt care about safety. Theyre just extremely excited about building software that reaches artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a term for AI that is as smart and as capable as a human. Some are hopeful tools like GPT-4, which OpenAI says has developed skills like writing and responding in foreign languages without being instructed to do so, means they are on the path to AGI. Experts explain that GPT-4 developed these capabilities by ingesting massive amounts of data, and most say these tools do not have a humanlike understanding of the meaning behind the text.
Who is behind it?: Two leading AI labs cited building AGI in their mission statements: OpenAI, founded in 2015, and DeepMind, a research lab founded in 2010 and acquired by Google in 2014. Still, the concept might have stayed on the margins if not for the same wealthy tech investors interested in the outer limits of AI. According to Cade Metzs book, Genius Makers, Peter Thiel donated $1.6 million to Yudkowskys AI nonprofit and Yudkowsky introduced Thiel to DeepMind. Musk invested in DeepMind and introduced the company to Google co-founder Larry Page. Musk brought the concept of AGI to OpenAIs other co-founders, like CEO Sam Altman.
How much influence do they have?: OpenAIs dominance in the market has flung open the Overton window. The leaders of the most valuable companies in the world, including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Google CEO Sundar Pichai, now get asked about and discuss AGI in interviews. Bill Gates blogs about it. Because the upside of AGI is so great, we do not believe it is possible or desirable for society to stop its development forever, Altman wrote in February.
The argument: Though doomers share a number of beliefs and frequent the same online forums as people in the AI safety world, this crowd has concluded that if a sufficiently powerful AI is plugged in, it will wipe out human life.
Who is behind it?: Yudkowsky has been the leading voice warning about this doomsday scenario. He is also the author of a popular fan fiction series, Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, an entry point for many young people into these online spheres and ideas around AI.
His nonprofit, MIRI, received a boost of $1.6 million in donations in its early years from tech investor Thiel, who has since distanced himself from the groups views. The EA-aligned Open Philanthropy donated about $14.8 million across five grants from 2016 to 2020. More recently, MIRI received funds from cryptos nouveau riche, including ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
How much influence do they have?: While Yudkowskys theories are credited by some inside this world as prescient, his writings have also been critiqued as not applicable to modern machine learning. Still, his views on AI have influenced more high-profile voices on these topics, such as noted computer scientist Stuart Russell, who signed the open letter.
In recent months, Altman and others have raised Yudkowskys profile. Altman recently tweeted that it is possible at some point [Yudkowsky] will deserve the nobel peace prize for accelerating AGI, later also tweeting a picture of the two of them at a party hosted by OpenAI.
The argument: For years, ethicists have warned about problems with larger AI models, including outputs that are biased against race and gender, an explosion of synthetic media that may damage the information ecosystem, and the impact of AI that sounds deceptively human. Many argue that the apocalypse narrative overstates AIs capabilities, helping companies market the technology as part of a sci-fi fantasy.
Some in this camp argue that the technology is not inevitable and could be created without harming vulnerable communities. Critiques that fixate on technological capabilities can ignore the decisions made by people, allowing companies to eschew accountability for bad medical advice or privacy violations from their models.
Who is behind it?: The co-authors of a farsighted research paper warning about the harms of large language models, including Timnit Gebru, former co-lead of Googles Ethical AI team and founder of the Distributed AI Research Institute, are often cited as leading voices. Crucial research demonstrating the failures of this type of AI, as well as ways to mitigate the problems, are often made by scholars of color many of them Black women, and underfunded junior scholars, researchers Abeba Birhane and Deborah Raji wrote in an op-ed for Wired in December.
How much influence do they have?: In the midst of the AI boom, tech firms like Microsoft, Twitch and Twitter have been laying off their AI ethics teams. But policymakers and the public have been listening.
Former White House policy adviser Suresh Venkatasubramanian, who helped develop the blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, told VentureBeat that recent exaggerated claims about ChatGPTs capabilities were part of an organized campaign of fearmongering around generative AI that detracted from stopped work on real AI issues. Gebru has spoken before the European Parliament about the need for a slow AI movement, ebbing the pace of the industry so societys safety comes first.
correction
A previous version of this article incorrectly construed the results of a survey asking machine learning researchers to estimate the probability that AI could end humanity. The median response was 10 percent, not 10 percent of respondents agreeing with the premise. This article has been corrected.
See the original post here:
Artificial Intelligence's rival factions, from Elon Musk to OpenAI - The Washington Post
- Working at DeepMind | Glassdoor [Last Updated On: September 8th, 2019] [Originally Added On: September 8th, 2019]
- DeepMind Q&A Dataset - New York University [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2019] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2019]
- Google absorbs DeepMind healthcare unit 10 months after ... [Last Updated On: October 7th, 2019] [Originally Added On: October 7th, 2019]
- deep mind Mathematics, Machine Learning & Computer Science [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Health strategies of Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft - Business Insider [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- To Understand The Future of AI, Study Its Past - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- Tremor patients can be relieved of the shakes for THREE YEARS after having ultrasound waves - Herald Publicist [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- The San Francisco Gay Mens Chorus Toured the Deep South - SF Weekly [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- The Universe Speaks in Numbers: The deep relationship between math and physics - The Huntington News [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- MINI John Cooper Works GP is a two-seater hot hatch that shouts its 306 HP - SlashGear [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- How To Face An Anxiety Provoking Situation Like A Champion - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2019]
- The Most Iconic Tech Innovations of the 2010s - PCMag [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2019]
- Why tech companies need to hire philosophers - Quartz [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2019]
- Living on Purpose: Being thankful is a state of mind - Chattanooga Times Free Press [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2019]
- EDITORIAL: West explosion victims out of sight and clearly out of mind - Waco Tribune-Herald [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2019]
- Do you need to sit still to be mindful? - The Sydney Morning Herald [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Listen To Two Neck Deep B-Sides, Beautiful Madness And Worth It - Kerrang! [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Worlds Last Male Northern White Rhino Brought Back To Life Using AI - International Business Times [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Eat, drink, and be merryonly if you keep in mind these food safety tips - Williamsburg Yorktown Daily [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- The alarming trip that changed Jeremy Clarksons mind on climate change - The Week UK [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Actionable Insights on Artificial Intelligence in Law Market with Future Growth Prospects by 2026 | AIBrain, Amazon, Anki, CloudMinds, Deepmind,... [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Searching for the Ghost Orchids of the Everglades - Discover Magazine [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Parkinsons tremors could be treated with SOUNDWAVES, claim scientists - Herald Publicist [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- Golden State Warriors still have prolonged success in mind - Blue Man Hoop [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- 3 Gratitude Habits You Can Adopt Over The Thanksgiving Holiday For Deeper Connection And Joy - Forbes [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2019]
- The minds that built AI and the writer who adored them. - Mash Viral [Last Updated On: November 28th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2019]
- Parkinson's Patients are Mysteriously Losing the Ability to Swim After Treatment - Discover Magazine [Last Updated On: November 28th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2019]
- Hannah Fry, the woman making maths cool | Times2 - The Times [Last Updated On: November 28th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2019]
- Meditate with Urmila: Find balance of body, mind and breath - Gulf News [Last Updated On: November 28th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2019]
- We have some important food safety tips to keep in mind while cooking this Thanksgiving - WQOW TV News 18 [Last Updated On: November 28th, 2019] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2019]
- Being thankful is a state of mind | Opinion - Athens Daily Review [Last Updated On: December 2nd, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 2nd, 2019]
- Can Synthetic Biology Inspire The Next Wave of AI? - SynBioBeta [Last Updated On: December 2nd, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 2nd, 2019]
- LIVING ON PURPOSE: Being thankful is a state of mind - Times Tribune of Corbin [Last Updated On: December 2nd, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 2nd, 2019]
- AI Hardware Summit Europe launches in Munich, Germany on 10-11 March 2020, the ecosystem event for AI hardware acceleration in Europe - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: December 5th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 5th, 2019]
- Of course Facebook and Google want to solve social problems. Theyre hungry for our data - The Guardian [Last Updated On: December 5th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 5th, 2019]
- Larry, Sergey, and the Mixed Legacy of Google-Turned-Alphabet - WIRED [Last Updated On: December 6th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 6th, 2019]
- AI Index 2019 assesses global AI research, investment, and impact - VentureBeat [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- For the Holidays, the Gift of Self-Care - The New York Times [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- Stopping a Mars mission from messing with the mind - Axios [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- Feldman: Impeachment articles are 'high crimes' Founders had in mind | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- Opinion | Frankenstein monsters will not be taking our jobs anytime soon - Livemint [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- DeepMind co-founder moves to Google as the AI lab positions itself for the future - The Verge [Last Updated On: December 11th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2019]
- Google Isn't Looking To Revolutionize Health Care, It Just Wants To Improve On The Status Quo - Newsweek [Last Updated On: December 12th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 12th, 2019]
- Artificial Intelligence Job Demand Could Live Up to Hype - Dice Insights [Last Updated On: December 12th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 12th, 2019]
- What Are Normalising Flows And Why Should We Care - Analytics India Magazine [Last Updated On: December 15th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 15th, 2019]
- Terence Crawford has next foe in mind after impressive knockout win - New York Post [Last Updated On: December 15th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 15th, 2019]
- DeepMind proposes novel way to train safe reinforcement learning AI - VentureBeat [Last Updated On: December 15th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 15th, 2019]
- Winning the War Against Thinking - So you've emptied your brain. Now what? - Chabad.org [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- 'Echo Chamber' as Author of the 'Hive Mind' - Ricochet.com [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- Lindsey Graham: 'I Have Made Up My Mind' to Exonerate Trump and 'Don't Need Any Witnesses' WATCH - Towleroad [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- Blockchain in Healthcare Market to 2027 By Top Leading Players: iSolve LLC, Healthcoin, Deepmind Health, IBM Corporation, Microsoft Corporation,... [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- In sight but out of mind - The Hindu [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- The Case for Limitlessness Has Its Limits: Review of Limitless Mind by Joe Boaler - Education Next - EducationNext [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- The Top 10 Diners In Deep East Texas, According To Yelp - ksfa860.com [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- 3 breathing exercises to reduce stress, anxiety and a racing mind - Irish Examiner [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- DeepMind exec Andrew Eland leaves to launch startup - Sifted [Last Updated On: December 16th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 16th, 2019]
- The Top 10 Diners In Deep East Texas, According To Yelp - kicks105.com [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Mind the Performance Gap New Future Purchasing Category Management Report Out Now - Spend Matters [Last Updated On: December 17th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 17th, 2019]
- Madison singles and deep cuts that stood out in 2019 - tonemadison.com [Last Updated On: December 19th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 19th, 2019]
- Hilde Lee: Latkes bring an ancient miracle to mind on first night of Hanukkah - The Daily Progress [Last Updated On: December 19th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 19th, 2019]
- Political Cornflakes: Trump responds to impeachment with complaints about the 'deep state' and toilet flushing - Salt Lake Tribune [Last Updated On: December 19th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 19th, 2019]
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai Is the Most Expensive Tech CEO to Keep Around - Observer [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- Christmas Lectures presenter Dr Hannah Fry on pigeons, AI and the awesome power of maths - inews [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- The ultimate guitar tuning guide: expand your mind with these advanced tuning techniques - Guitar World [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- Inside The Political Mind Of Jerry Brown - Radio Ink [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- Elon Musk Fact-Checked His Own Wikipedia Page and Requested Edits Including the Fact He Does 'Zero Investing' - Entrepreneur [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- The 9 Best Blobs of 2019 - Livescience.com [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- AI from Google is helping identify animals deep in the rainforest - Euronews [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- Want to dive into the lucrative world of deep learning? Take this $29 class. - Mashable [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2019]
- Re: Your Account Is Overdrawn - Thrive Global [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Review: In the Vale is full of characters who linger long in the mind - Nation.Cymru [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- 10 Gifts That Cater to Your Loved One's Basic Senses - Wide Open Country [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- The Most Mind-Boggling Scientific Discoveries Of 2019 Include The First Image Of A Black Hole, A Giant Squid Sighting, And An Exoplanet With Water... [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- DeepMind's new AI can spot breast cancer just as well as your doctor - Wired.co.uk [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2020]
- Why the algorithms assisting medics is good for health services (Includes interview) - Digital Journal [Last Updated On: January 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 4th, 2020]
- 2020: The Rise of AI in the Enterprise - IT World Canada [Last Updated On: January 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 4th, 2020]
- An instant 2nd opinion: Google's DeepMind AI bests doctors at breast cancer screening - FierceBiotech [Last Updated On: January 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 4th, 2020]
- Google's DeepMind AI outperforms doctors in identifying breast cancer from X-ray images - Business Insider UK [Last Updated On: January 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 4th, 2020]
- New AI toolkit from the World Economic Forum is promising because it's free - The National [Last Updated On: January 20th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 20th, 2020]
- AKA Wants to Help People Break Bad Habits and Create New Positive Ones - Hospitality Net [Last Updated On: January 20th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 20th, 2020]