First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Six years following first commercial ARM Server development that was a Network Storage Appliance ZT Systems (PHYTEC) R1801e up to 16 discrete ST SPEAr ARM 9s, 80w system power, first encompassing applications report arrives; India Institute of Sciences ARM Wrestling with Big Data January 21, 2017.
Follows a history of focused assessment; Tirias, MySQL Database using Thunder X, November 14, 2016; Anandtech, Investigating Cavium Thunder X June 15, 2016; Linley Group, X-Gene 3 Challenges Xeon E5, April 2016; Journal of Physics, Frederic Pinel, University of Luxembourg, Dissertation; Energy-Performance Optimization for Cloud, November 27, 2014, HSOC Benchmark for an ARM Server May 13, 2014; University of Edinburgh, Energy Efficiency of SOC Based Processors; April 23, 2013; Calxedas own ECX1000 1.1 GHz v E3 1240 3.3 GHz, June 21, 2012 and all I can say is thats running at Intel speed.
Now all ARM consortium has to do is beat Intel fabrication production cost : price, and the customer concerns.
Intel must be concerned with the antitrust and competitive potentials having hunkered down to barricade Data Center Group Xeon in commercial pricing at 82% first tier discount off 1K. Intel statement on DCG revenue lag has little to do with actual demanders appears Intel diversion.
Assessment Broadwell Xeon E5 2600 v4 EP DP
Checked against Intel 2016 DCG revenue divided by analyst Xeon unit total production volume for determining per unit average price. Also, analyst q4 2016 broker channel inventories holding report by product category volumes, for calculating broker holdings 1K revenue value adjusted to reflect Intel 2016 percent of division revenues statement determines Intel price discount level.
Summary 33% of run or 10,775,736 units of BW v4 14nm production are priced less than full run Marginal Cost $160 is among the competitive development hurdles. Intel on Ivy and Haswell volumes has signaled to first tier dealers all margin values rung from less than 16 cores. Now sit in channels reverberating for other than cloud procurement. On amount of Intel surplus enterprise procurement secures the open market price advantage.
Note 1- BW v4 Average Marginal Cost @ $160 is $31 more than 22 nm Haswell per unit of production cost.
Note 2 Average Price of BW v4 Cost calculated below @ $174 represents the non weighed price on grade SKUs, and is not profit maximized.
Industry total revenue displacement on Broadwell E5 2600 v4 dumping is competitive cost entry barrier; $4,441,803,931, estimate a good 2x five year ARM system constituent development cost.
Q4 2016 Intel x86 broker market inventory holdings report here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033057-intel-another-threat-emerges-zen
ARM fabricators and design producers;
Key; E5 26xx v4 Grade SKU, Intel 1K Price, 1st Tier Customer Price, Intel profit or (loss).
Approximately 32,852,212 units of production.
FOUR CORE
2623, 3.0 GHz, 10 MB L3, 85w; 1K $444, $79.92 ($80.08) 2637, 3.5 GHz, 10 MB L3, 135w, 1K 996, $179.28, $19.28 above cost
SIX CORE 2603, 1.7 GHz, 15 MB L3, 50w; $213, $38.34 = Variable Cost, ($121.66) 2643, 3.4 GHz, 15 MB L3, 135w, $1552, $279.36, $119.36 profit > cost
EIGHT CORE 2608L, 1.6 GHz, 20 MB L3, 50w; $363, $65.43, ($94.66) 2609, 1.7 GHz, 20 MB L3, 85w; $306, $55.087, ($104.92) 2620 2.1 GHz, 20 MB L3, 85w; $417, $75.06, ($84.94) 2667 3.2 Ghz, 20 MB L3, 135w, $2057, $370.26, $210.26 profit > cost
TEN CORE 2618L 2.2 GHz, 25 MB L3, 75w; $779, $140.22, ($19.78) 2630L 1.8 GHz, 25 MB L3, 55w; $612, $110.16, ($49.84) 2640 2.4 GHz, 25 MB L3, 90w; $939, $169.02, $9.02 above cost 2689 3.1 GHz, 25 MB L3, 165w; $2723, $490.14, $330.14 competitive profit level for Intel
TWELVE CORE 2628L 1.9 GHz, 30 MB L3, 75w; $1364, $245.52, $85.52 profit > cost 2650 2.2 Ghz, 30 MB L3, 105w; $1166; $209.88, $49.88 profit > cost 2687W 3.1 GHz, 30 MB L3, 160w; $2141, $385.38; $225.38 competitive profit level
FOURTEEN CORE 2648L 1.8 GHz, 35 Mb L3, 75w; $1544, $277.92, $117.92 2650L 1.7 GHz, 35 MB L3, 105w; $1332, $239.22, $79.22 2658 2.3 GHz, 35 MB L3, 105w; $1832, $329.76, $169.76 2860 2.0 GHz, 35 MB L3, 105w; $1445, $260.10, $100.10 2680 2.4 GHz, 35 MB L3, 120w; $1745, $314.10, $254.10 2690 2.6 GHz, 35 MB L3, 125w; $2090, $376.20, $216.20
SIXTEEN CORE 2683 2.1 GHz, 40 MB L3, 120w; $2424, $436.42, $276.32 2697A 2.6 GHz, 40 MB L3, 145w; $2702, $486.36, $326.36 competitive profit level
EIGHTEEN CORE 2695 2.1 GHz, 45 MB L3, 120w; $2424, $436.32, $276.32 2697 2.3 GHz, 45 Mb L3, 145w; $2702, $486.36, $326.36 competitive profit level
TWENTY CORE 2698 2.2 GHz, 50 MB L3, 135w; $3226, $580.68, $420.68 just below economic profit point for Intel
TWENTYTWO CORE 2696 2.2 GHz, 55 MB L3, 150w; $4115, $740.70, $580.70 entering economic profit points for Intel 2699 2.2 GHz, 55 Mb L3, 145w; $4115, $740.70, $580.70 2699R 2.2 GHz, 55 MB L3, 145w; $4569, $822.42, $662.42 2699A 2.4 GHz, 55 MB L3, 145w; $4938, $888.84, $728.44
Marginal Cost of 24 (22 core) master on production economic total revenue total cost assessment (before marginal cost of sort and dice) = $511.
Science rarely leads to objects of replication, but objects for further articulation and specification under new and more stringent conditions.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. Which is the more powerful, the elephant or beehive.
Mike Bruzzone, Camp marketing
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ARM Server Chips Challenge X86 in the Cloud - The Next Platform
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