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The rupture in the relationship between President Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu has finally happened. Now, we can predict with reasonable certainty that Buhari does not fancy Tinubu as the presidential flag bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

For upwards of seven years, these two have been forced into an alliance dictated by their mutual interests. It was rumoured that there was an agreement by the duo to take turns at the presidency.

Mr Tinubu kept his own side of the bargain by sticking with Buhari through thick and thin. In 2014, his support was critical to Mr Buhari picking the presidential ticket of the APC. Even more daunting, Tinubu ensured Buharis victory at the polls in the entirety of the Southwest.

Mr Tinubu is not unaware of these realities. There are credible rumours hes already propping a political party that has adopted the name of a hitherto winning political party to serve as his fall-back option in the event he is denied the APC ticket

In 2019, even in the face of poor performance and nothing to show for his four-year leadership, Tinubu still supported him, resorting to ethnic politics and voter intimidation to deliver Lagos and some southwestern states to Buhari.

Even in October 2020, when Mr Buhari sent in troops to massacre innocent youth protesting police brutality at the Lekki toll gates, Tinubu stood behind him at the risk of losing his grip on the voting population of Lagos. Instead of speaking against the killings, Mr Tinubu upbraided the youth and asked them what they were doing at the toll gate at the time.

However, when it was time for Mr Buhari to repay the favour to Tinubu, he has become non-committal and appears to be backing other candidate(s) for the position. Long before the election season, there were rumours that Mr Buharis close circle are not enamoured by Tinubu and wanted another candidate to fly the party ticket at the election. That was why Tinubu pre-empted them all and declared his intention first with the hope that his declaration may weaken the resolve of some of his opponents within the party and force the hand of the President.

That hasnt worked out as planned. Many other contestants also close to President Buhari have since declared their intentions to contest for the partys ticket. More jarring was the declaration of the Vice President, Tinubus political godson. It was said Osinbajo sought and got the permission of the President to throw his hat into the ring. Media reports also suggest a former president, Goodluck Jonathan, is under immense pressure from Mr. Buharis circle to join the race.

Read also:Presidency: Osinbajo, Tinubu in fight to the finish

Although Jonathan has said he will only join the race on the condition that he is endorsed and supported wholeheartedly by Mr Buhari, a tweet by Jonathans former spokesperson that Jonathan is on the verge of joining the presidential race on the platform of the ruling APC has further complicated matters and left analysts guessing as to who exactly will get the presidents endorsement for the polls.

All these have left Tinubu feeling used and betrayed. And for the first time in seven years, he has publicly disassociated himself from the President and offered his first open rebuke and criticism of the Buhari administration.

Speaking a fortnight ago at a youth rally, he chided the Buhari administration for failing to tackle the urgent challenges of the country, offering himself as a better alternative. We feel your anger when you are angry. I dont blame you. The promises of the past have failed to realise, he told an enthusiastic crowd of youth in Lagos who gathered to support his campaign.

We cannot continue with excuses or NEPA failure. No. No nation can make rapid development without electricity. Give us that and if we cannot be successful, then you can abuse us. But you cannot give us erratic electricity that is undependable and then blame us again that we are lazy, Mr. Tinubu told his cheering supporters.

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The game of chess in the APC - Businessday