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In 2013 FIDE introduced the current format of the Candidates Tournaments: 8 players, double round-robin. The format has proved its worth and has resulted in six high-profile and exciting tournaments. Three times - 2013, 2016 and 2018 - the tournament was decided in the final round, and three times - 2014, 2021 and 2022 - the winner was decided before the final round.

However, a look at the table below shows that in the past, the player leading after four rounds has always won.

Of course, this is just another statistic in the series of many statistics that have been compiled about the current and past Candidates Tournaments.

In general, there is a certain mistrust of statistics, as quotes from Mark Twain "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics", Winston Churchill "Don't trust a statistic that you haven't falsified yourself" or Franklin D. Roosevelt "I am somewhat sceptical about statistics, because according to statistics, a millionaire and a poor fellow each have half a million", show.

You should also consider the following: Never before in the history of chess has a player won the Candidates Tournament or the Candidates Matches three times. At first glance it seems rather unlikely that this will happen in Toronto in 2024.

In other words, at the Candidates Tournament 2024 in Toronto everything is probably still possible.In any case, after the rest day, Round 5 will bring the following pairings:

Alireza Firouzja - Hikaru Nakamura Gukesh D - Nijat Abasov Vidit Santosh Gujrathi - Fabiano Caruana Praggnanandhaa R - Ian Nepomniachtchi

Once this round is over, we will know more, and will be able to think about new statistics and forecasts.

Read more:
Candidates Tournament 2024: A feeling of dj vu - Chess News | ChessBase